Flopped set faces an ugly turn

[Kyriefurro]

BB is LAG preflop, calling station postflop. When he does show aggression, it's almost always on the turn, and it tends to be out of proportion to the strength of his hand. I've seen him bet/raise with draws and MPNK so far. I've already stacked him twice, and he may be on tilt. Then again, he's won a few hands since his last re-buy, so the tilt may be fading.

Button is a calling station.

Stacks:
Hero - 274.50
Button - 42.15
BB - 121.35

Hero is UTG w/ 88

Preflop <font color="blue"> (6 players) </font>:
Hero <font color="red"> raises to $4 </font>, MP folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls

($12.50) Flop <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>: 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB checks, Hero bets $12, Button calls, BB calls

($48.50) Turn <font color="blue"> (3 players) </font>: J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero bets $46, Button calls $26.15 (all-in), BB <font color="red"> raises to 106.35 (all-in) </font>, Hero.......?

Turn card is UGLY. It possibly completes the straight and adds another draw to the board. On the other hand, I'm getting about 3.8 to 1 to call, and I have 10 outs to beat the straight, if it's there. Also, based on previous play villain *could* have something like JT or J8, or even just a flush draw (although the raise is a little strong for just a draw, even for him).

Thoughts?

Call

You would be calling about $60 into a $226 pot.

Here's my reasoning:
(a) the villain could be tilting
(b) the only hands that have you beat right now are a few suited connector hands for the straight
(c) yes, the flush draw is out there, but it's not a made hand yet.

But the -best- reason to call:

With a set, you are 1:2 to improve to a full house or better by the river. That means about 33% of the time, you'll have him destroyed.

That means you need the pot to be better than 3x the bet to you to have +EV

The pot is 3.76x the bet to you now.

Call it!

Edit: Another thought - He may be trying to isolate the hand between him and the other all-in player with his reraise. This probably means he has a made hand and is not just on the flush draw. With the 1:2 odds of improving, I sitll call here.

[theweatherman]

You have to call, and better yet I think your winning so far. the only thing I fear here is JJ, to which you pay off and curse a lot.

z28dreams, your math is very, very wrong. On the turn the hero has 10 outs to fill up (9) or quad (1), with 6 cards out of the deck there are 46 more cards, of which ten win. This is only a 21% draw, your assesment is looking at the flop. With only one card to come the hero is far worse off against a made straight.

[ QUOTE ]
You have to call, and better yet I think your winning so far. the only thing I fear here is JJ, to which you pay off and curse a lot.

z28dreams, your math is very, very wrong. On the turn the hero has 10 outs to fill up (9) or quad (1), with 6 cards out of the deck there are 46 more cards, of which ten win. This is only a 21% draw, your assesment is looking at the flop. With only one card to come the hero is far worse off against a made straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn you're right, I remembered his post wrong and thought the push was at the flop.

The odds are much worse with one card to come, probably -EV if you assume he's behind the straight already.

Still, for the amount in there, and in hopes of villain having a lower set / overpair, it's probably worth calling.

[miajag81]

You have to get it all in here. If he made his straight, suck out on the river. If he hit his jack, be angry but move on to the next hand. Perfectly played IMO.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
The odds are much worse with one card to come, probably -EV if you assume he's behind the straight already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on SB's previous play, the straight is by no means a given. As another poster pointed out, I may still be ahead at this point.

10 cards out of 46 means we need 3.6 to 1 for the call. This pot is giving 3.8 to 1 (used a calculator heh). Even if he has the straight, I have the odds to call, hoping for the suck-out.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The odds are much worse with one card to come, probably -EV if you assume he's behind the straight already.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on SB's previous play, the straight is by no means a given. As another poster pointed out, I may still be ahead at this point.

10 cards out of 46 means we need 3.6 to 1 for the call. This pot is giving 3.8 to 1 (used a calculator heh). Even if he has the straight, I have the odds to call, hoping for the suck-out.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hero.......?


[/ QUOTE ]

So what was the point of this post? You played the hand well, and this is an obvious call. There are a lot of much uglier turns than the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[stu-unger]

i dont see how a call can be -EV here... if he has a str8 100% of the time it is still +EV to call, so hmmmm...

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
With a set, you are 1:2 to improve to a full house or better by the river. That means about 33% of the time, you'll have him destroyed.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's not right. We're at the turn. There's only one card to come. He's only going to improve %20 of the time.

But its still a call against a player as LAG as he describes.

Worst case scenario... villain has pocket Js. (though I'm sure he might have reraised pf)

[TheRegulat0r]

Insta-Call.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
So what was the point of this post? You played the hand well, and this is an obvious call. There are a lot of much uglier turns than the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of this post, like many of my posts, is to help clarify my thinking regarding how the hand played out. Even though I eventually answered my own question, that answer only came about through discussion with other members of the forum - using other people as a sounding board against which to project my thoughts and ideas.

And as far as that goes, this post was a success. Thanks to all who took the time to provide a thoughtful reply.