Stud Scenario

[Andy B]

Small buy-in stud event. Six players left. We're all in the money. I think that there was less than $90k in play, of which I had about $20k at this point. I think that one stack was larger than mine. Limits are a whopping $3000/6000. It's kind of late, and people have to go to work in the morning. Anyway, there's a $500 ante, and a Five brings it in for $1500 (another thing not to like about the structure of this event). A Seven folds. I have (JQ)K and complete to $3000. A Ten and another Seven fold, and a King raises to $6000. The bring-in calls all-in for a total of $5000, and I call.

The kid with the King is a previously unknown opponent. He says that he's never played stud before, and I have every reason to believe him. The bring-in is a familiar opponent. He mostly plays hold'em, and plays OK. The only stud I've ever played against him was in a short-handed Sunday morning $6/12 game which he left the minute a hold'em seat opened. I think he has to have a little something to call for his last $4000.

On fourth street, I buy a Jack, giving me a pair. Unfortunately, both of my opponents pair their door cards. The Kings bet $3500 all-in. Do I have a call, and is it close? While I'm in the neighborhood, does anybody do anything differently on third street?

[banditbdl]

I think this is an easy fold. I just think you're calling too thin. If the 5 is calling all in to a 3-way pot I'd be shocked if he didn't already have trips or perhaps a big pair in the hole to go with the fives.(I played a hand like this myself once, with a 5 up and two queens down, I brought in the minimum, got raised by a queen and reraised him all in knocking him out.) The kings could also have 2 pair or a slim chance at the case king underneath for trips(this scenerio, however unlikely, would make you a huge dog.) The kings could also possibly have a hand similar to yours, which wouldn't help either. I know it's only another 3500 for a chance to become a huge chip leader but when I've played in events like this I think its best to protect your money and make a move in a better heads-up situation later on. You'll still have a very playable 15k stack for the final 5 after the hand is over. I would have played it the same on 3rd street, your opponents just caught perfect cards on 4th street, not much you can do. By the way, did you have any shot at the bounties earlier?

[Nukid]

You're getting (assuming I can count) 24:3.5 on your call. You're obviously a dog, but are you that much of a dog? I think in a regular money game, I call, but you really want to last in a tourney, so I think that I would drop it. Although it's fast enough paced that you may be anted/bring ined to death pretty quickly. (How are you supposed to play when most people will end up all in by fourth street?)If you fold, you still have 14K left, and you're only behind the chip leader by about two big bets, so wait til you've got something that isn't so obviously behind, and push it there. (This is assuming the payoffs don't decline overly steeply, since this strategy seems to give you the best place, and not necessarily the best chance to win).

[Andy B]

For the benefit of non-Canterbury regulars, this tournament features a "celebrity bounty." Paul Allen, who is not to be confused with Paul Allen, is a local personality who is a track announcer at Canterbury Park and the radio voice of the Vikings. He also has a radio show where he plugs this tournament. For this event, he and a guest each have a $250 bounty on their heads. This makes up a non-trivial percentage of the prize pool.

Mike Goldberg, announcer for the Wild, was on my table during the first level, so no, I had no shot at the bounty. It's tough to bust someone out in 20 minutes of $15/30 when he has $800 in front of him, no matter how badly he plays.

Quite a while back, maybe two years ago now, I was involved in a hand where Paul Allen went all-in. I raised coming in with (A3)A and Paul and about 17 other people called. I fired the whole way. I caught another Trey on fifth or sixth, and PA went all-in on fifth or sixth. Still at least a couple, three other players in the pot. I bought another Trey on the river to fill up and fired my last $75 into a hugish pot that figured to be mine. I already had the $250 spent, and I looked to be in good shape to make the final table. Some kid raised and apparently hit Kings full. I've been knocked out of a lot of tournaments, all of them come to think of it, but that probably hurt the most of any of them.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Well, do you think the first all-in would call on third with split 5s? What chance do you give him for trips at this point? Similar question for the open Ks. What are the chances you're facing trip Ks?

If it's most likely you're against two hands of two pairs each, then the 6+:1 you're getting here demands a call. If it's quite likely that at least one of them has trips, then you're too far behind to chase, even at this great price.

Don't forget how some people play when desperate. The 55xy could have started with something like three of a suit, or 567. If he's not getting desperate, he's a lot more likely to have two pair than trips, with a decent sized pair in the hole (hopefully not Js). As for the KK, hard to say, since his reraise is pretty strong. He's the one I'd worry about.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Graham]

Easy fold I reckon, Andy. You have to give the guy credit for holding something to raise after your raise and now he's paired the old doorcard. If that's not enough, there's the other fella with a paired door card! Save your chips and hope the big bets damage some other players to move you up and/or you get to pick up hand in a better spot.

G

[Andy B]

Well, I thought it was an interesting scenario, anyway. Obviously, if the Kings bet more, or there was going to be further betting, I have a fold. If Kings were live, I think I have a fold. On the other hand, if he only bets $1000 or $2000, I think I have an easy call.

I felt that it was somewhat unlikely that either that either of my opponents had trips. I could account for one of the kid's Kings, making it somewhat unlikely that he had trips. Also, he was playing like a monkey. I also didn't think that the bring-in would call for all of his money against two raisers with a lousy pair of fives. Turns out that I was half right. The kid had Ace-rag in the hole, but the bring-in had trip Fives. At least I think he did. He won the hand at any rate, and I remember being surprised by what he showed down. I talked to him about it a few days later, and he couldn't remember what he had, either. I think it was trip Fives, though.

Anyway, if we take as a given that the kid started out with crap and that the bring-in did have trips, I basically have to trip up in order to win. If my math is correct, I will do so about 14% of the time, or about 6:1 against. I'm getting $23,500:$3,500 on my call, which is about 6.7:1. Of course, I can hit my trips and still lose. I did run a few scenarios on twodimes, and it looks like I have an OK gamble.

My feeling at the time was that I had a close decision, such that it probably didn't matter what I did one way or the other in terms of expectation. Winning that pot would put me in an excellent position to win the tournament, which was why I entered in the first place. On the other hand, I can expect to lose the great majority of the time, and $3500 in chips is nothing to sneeze at, even with the ridiculous structure.

Another thing to consider is that, assuming that the kid has only the Kings, I have a reasonable shot at the side pot. While that by itself isn't enough to warrant the call, I think it does push my decision towards a call.

[B-Man]

Andy,

I think this is a clear fold. The K came over the top of your raise, making it more likely he has something, even if it isn't Kings. The bring-in isn't going all-in against a raise and a re-reraise unless he has something (though he could have a 3-flush or 5-6-dead 7). You've probably got to figure that at least one, if not both of them, has two pair, and one of them could easily have trips. The one certainty is that you are definitely behind a known pair of kings, and one of your kickers is dead.

You can afford to wait for a better spot, even if the pot odds are about right to call. You know you are behind, it's just a question of how far. I think you can preserve your chips and wait for a better situation.