10/20 stars deep

[durrrr]

Villain is fairly unknown, but i think he is decent- and fairly TAG.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (8 handed)

CO ($6062.50)
Button ($1970)
SB ($1930)
BB ($2394)
UTG ($2014.50)
UTG+1 ($2392)
Hero ($12490)
MP2 ($4383)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $200</font>, CO calls $200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $140.

Flop: ($630) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $400</font>, Hero calls $400, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($1430) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($1430) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $1000</font>

HERO?

[captZEEbo1]

hero folds pf

[durrrr]

no... try again zeebo.

cmon seriously i posted this hand b/c i thought it was interesting- the pf call is right in this situation if you want to know why pm me (was player dep. obv.). I played you a little today btw zeebo.

[captZEEbo1]

Well to be honest, I think this bet can be, AA, KK, TT, AQ, /images/graemlins/club.gifs, so it's just a matter if you think he has one of those hands. I'm pretty sure all those hands value bet river, but maybe not THAT big a value bet (except the flush). I think this call is just strictly player dependent on his reraise range. He's pretty much representing the clubs though, so I'm guessing he has some total [censored] here and is hoping you don't call him.

[durrrr]

your missing something very important here. (I dont mean to be annoying i just dont want to reveal too much and kill the discussion, pm me if you wish and ill explain).

[captZEEbo1]

should we add J9 88 or 22? I'd just assume 88 and 22 bets turn.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Are you considering c/r a-i? Because you have all the blockers, he doesn't have QQ and he doesnt have AK/images/graemlins/club.gif. So at best he has an overpair here and would be extremely hard pressed to call here.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
should we add J9 88 or 22? I'd just assume 88 and 22 bets turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So would i... yes, thats an option worstplyr- looks like there is 1 exact hand that calls... (as a TAG cant have Q8s here can he? and i have 1 Q).

[greg nice]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this call is just strictly player dependent on his reraise range.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO cold called the rr preflop. he did not rr himself.

[JKratzer]

I assume you posted this and won, but I would have folded pf, flop and river. Because you say villian is relatively unknown, I can't imagine why you are testing him here as all you can beat is a bluff and I don't see bluffs to be a large part of his range. I know you want to start discussion, so if you don't explain right away that's okay, I just don't know what you're looking to discuss.

JKratzer

[SuperJez]

Have no experience of this game but I am pretty sure he would have you beat here. There is a decent chance he has AK of course which is the only reason I could find a call in this spot but I dont feel your odds are anywhere good enough to call. Overpairs are unlikely I feel as they would have bet the turn, as would AQ but you could well be shown clubs or a house on a call. Infact the more I think about it I am swaying slightly more towards the call as I cannot see overpairs, AQ, or mid pairs being played this way.

HOWEVER - It is true that when you check the river he can be fairly certain you were not drawing and probably have some sort of hand to be calling with out of position on the flop, so a bluff by a missed AK would be a -ev move as it would be called more often than not given you obviously have a hand, so I say fold as he surely has you beat

Jez

Hi zeebo btw it was me you were playing on UB 1/2 HU the other night as TeamRazor (low stakes player that I am /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

[SuperJez]

Oh yeah and I dont mind to sound stupid but...

Why would you call a reraise with KQ OOP from a TAG?

Jez

[durrrr]

TAG didnt reraise, a LAG did, and in the stars 10/20 game w/ those stacks, every1 is quite LAG- i just mean he was quite a bit tighter than most. I think that his range is something like:

flush: 50%
AA/kk/AQ: 10%
kq/lowr Q: 2%
bluff: 35%
fullhouse/quads: 3%

w/ those numbers a call is quite profitable...

[durrrr]

Jkratzer: im looking for what you think the best line is here. I know what i think it is- but I'm curious to see how many people on here agree w/ me.

[SuperJez]

Ok I agree there is a big enough chance that he is bluffing here to ponder a call but I feel the fact he knows you are probably leaning towards a call makes his chances of bluffing less than 35%, I would be interested to know why you rate them significantly higher than me (the sort of thing I need to learn) and what the actual results were.

Jez

[durrrr]

Reread his range...

[ QUOTE ]
TAG didnt reraise, a LAG did, and in the stars 10/20 game w/ those stacks, every1 is quite LAG- i just mean he was quite a bit tighter than most. I think that his range is something like:

flush: 50%
AA/kk/AQ: 10%
kq/lowr Q: 2%
bluff: 35%
fullhouse/quads: 3%

w/ those numbers a call is quite profitable...

[/ QUOTE ]

This thread seems absolutely pointless to me. I mean you seem to have his range figured almost perfectly, and it isn't possible for any of us to have better information on that. You have said now that you think your line is best. So exactly what do you want to discuss? A few people (including at least one very well respected poster) have given you some thoughts on the hand, and you just complain.

If you want someone to critique/offer insight on your line and reasoning, you're going to have to tell us wtf it was!

[durrrr]

That range is just a guess... and is nowhere near perfect, it is just a hint at why i playd the hand the way i did. reread the previous posts again and see what you think the best line is. I think this hand is more complex than you realize. I shouldn't need to offer insight onto my reasoning/line because IMO any competent person should w/ a few minutes thought be able to figure out why i did what i did. This is my last post in this thread until i post the results, please dont post just to say the way its worded or w/e annoys you. Simply i want to know what the best line is and why. I know what i think it was and i just want to see if others agree.

[aceferret]

You want to raise and blow him off his flush b/c you both have deep stacks?

or are you thinking why would he value bet this river and offer you the opportunity to take the pot away from him since he doesn't have a boat or quads.

Raise to 4000 and he folds

Disclaimer: Highest I play is 5/10.

Forgive my ignorance but why are we ruling out QQ here?

if he held QQ, smooth call the $200 pf.
Bets about 2/3 pot with flush draw on flop after being checked to with top set. He wants action.
He assumes you called on flop with the flush draw.
Turn gives him the 2nd nuts, so he checks behind to let you hit your flush draw so you pay him off on the river.

[anduril]

[ QUOTE ]
TAG didnt reraise, a LAG did, and in the stars 10/20 game w/ those stacks, every1 is quite LAG- i just mean he was quite a bit tighter than most. I think that his range is something like:

flush: 50%
AA/kk/AQ: 10%
kq/lowr Q: 2%
bluff: 35%
fullhouse/quads: 3%

w/ those numbers a call is quite profitable...

[/ QUOTE ]

so 37% of the time you're splitting or winning getting 2.4-1 from the pot and this is profitable how?

[anduril]

maybe you're correct to call the pf raise, but I don't and since I'm never in that position I wouldn't really need to know what to do. Probably check/fold the river since there are exactly zero hands you beat besides a bluff. If he's betting a worse queen he is insane.

[Finite_Risk]

This sounds very plausible - unless your read on villan is horribly wrong, I dont see anything you beat here

[scdavis0]

[ QUOTE ]
so 37% of the time you're splitting or winning getting 2.4-1 from the pot and this is profitable how?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke post?

[anduril]

wewps, had it backwards

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to raise and blow him off his flush b/c you both have deep stacks?

or are you thinking why would he value bet this river and offer you the opportunity to take the pot away from him since he doesn't have a boat or quads.

Raise to 4000 and he folds

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but you have to make the leap and assume that he'll give you credit for a boat here after you've checked to him 3 times. I don't see that many players willing to check the river after they've missed their turn check-raise. But of course, if you "know" he'll give you credit then check-raising big makes sense.

[durrrr]

I pushed, he folded. I think this was clearly the best line, i was just curious how many people would even think of this play. Simply wanted to know how many people would think of this, and then how many of them would think it was the best line. I think just making up a hand range for him (mine was a complete guess). It becomes a very profitable push vs. most opponents (unless they debate a call w/ KK in this spot).

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed, he folded. I think this was clearly the best line, i was just curious how many people would even think of this play. Simply wanted to know how many people would think of this, and then how many of them would think it was the best line. I think just making up a hand range for him (mine was a complete guess). It becomes a very profitable push vs. most opponents (unless they debate a call w/ KK in this spot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a limit player, I've barely played no-limit and I don't read this forum much. That said, I think a push is bad given the range you've stated.

So let's compare pushing vs. calling (ignore fold because calling is clearly better than folding). So, when he has a worse hand, we win the pot regardless, no difference. For now, just forget the set and quads (you lose ~$130 extra by pushing instead of calling).

What really matters are the times he has a flush. If we call, we lose $1000, end of story. If we push, he has a decision. First of all, what is his flush? With you having the K/images/graemlins/club.gif and the T/images/graemlins/club.gif and 8/images/graemlins/club.gif being on the board, there aren't a whole lot of flushes left. AQs, AJs, QJs is about it. What else does he call 2 raises with preflop? Maybe 76s. So let's say they're all equally likely.

Now, from his perspective what hands do you push with on the river? A bluff, QQ, TT(probably doesn't get this far) and maybe the A-high flush? So let's say he folds 76s and QJs because he's worried about both the full house and the bigger flush. AQs you'll never convince me he's folding. 1 combination of QQ is about all you can have that he loses to and he beats a bluff or the K-high flush. AJs is close but I wouldn't be counting on him folding it too often. If he only calls with AQs, then the push has EV = 0.75*$2430 + 0.25*(-$5462) = $457 (or $1457 compared to calling.) If he calls with both AQs and AJs, EV=.5*$2430 + 0.5*$(-5462) = -$1516 (or -$516 compared to calling.)

So I guess if he folds AJs, then your push is good. I wouldn't count on that, I think it calls more often than not. Also, what if 76s isn't in his preflop calling range? What if he has a set/quads a few extra percent of the time? QQ, 88 and TT might all be played the way he did. What if calls with QJs too? Against a fairly unknown I don't think the push is good.

Steve

P.S. Hopefully this gets replies even though it was posted post-results...

Personally I like the push. I don't put the guy on the nuts based on how he played the hand, and with deep stacks, a $5k call isn't an easy thing, especially when it's so aggressive on the river.

Of course, if he has your balls. Whoops! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif