This hand had me scratching my head.. Bubble Play (10+1)

What's up everybody. I really didn't know what to do on this hand. Need some help.

It's bubble time and I pick up AQ suited on the BB.

My reads are...button has been raising every time he's been on the button. He's routinely been miniraising on the button except for this hand in which he oddly bumped it up to 3.5X bb. I should also note that I've picked off a couple of his steal attempts earlier in the game.

SB is the tightest player at the table and he immediately pushes.

Given my reads on the opponents, what kind of hands would you put these players on? In this situation should I just push with my decent stack or do I suspect that I'm beat? Or does it even matter if I suspect I'm beat? Easy push every time? Is calling a good idea? Thanks in advance.

Seat 6: button ( $2750 )
Seat 7: SB ( $1130 )
Seat 8: Hero (BB) ( $2865 )
Seat 10: UTG ( $1255 )

Blinds(100/200)

Dealt to Hero [ A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]
UTG folds.
Button raises [700].
SB is all-In [1030]
Hero?

[nyc999]

This is an easy fold for me, especially since the button has me covered and is yet to act.

[niquewon]

Instamuck.

I fold this very quickly. Very clear one has a pair, and your ace or queen outs could be discounted. Plus there is another short stack in play.

[SammyKid11]

See that AQ of diamonds you have? No you don't - cause you already folded it!

[Exitonly]

think i'm in the minority here, so probably wrong..
edit: i don't think i care that i'm in the minority, i like a push here.

but i i'm pushing to isolate the short stack.. Shorty only has 5 BB, and i wouldnt be surprised if button comes along with an inferior hand, or a mid PP.In which case i'm probably racing for the chiplead, and short stack probably gets eliminated anyway, so i'm getting 3rd, or in good shape for first.

[ QUOTE ]
but i i'm pushing to isolate the short stack.. Shorty only has 5 BB, and i wouldnt be surprised if button comes along with an inferior hand, or a mid PP.In which case i'm probably racing for the chiplead, and short stack probably gets eliminated anyway, so i'm getting 3rd, or in good shape for first.

[/ QUOTE ] So let me ask you this. Suppose you could see shorty's hand and he had a pocket underpair. Knowing that you would be a slight dog but basically a coin flip...would you still push being that my chip stack is over 2 to 1 on shorty? Also knowing that it's a possiblity that button calls as well? Is this move +ev?

[Exitonly]

Sure i'd take a flip there, the blinds alone are enough dead money to flip vs the short stack, and since button tossed some money in this with his probable steal, even better.

And like i said, definitely see button calling w/ a weaker A here, or a mid pair.

[ QUOTE ]
And like i said, definitely see button calling w/ a weaker A here, or a mid pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely see button thinking he has 2000 chips left and will only call if he has a hand. Therefore, if we want to isolate it would purely be against the shortstack. I do not like AQ against this range of possibilities. More like AK+, 99+.

[Exitonly]

Short stack has FIVE big blinds, and it's 4 handed... that's a really tight range to put him on, especially sinc ecyou said button has been stealing.

[ QUOTE ]
Short stack has FIVE big blinds, and it's 4 handed,

[/ QUOTE ]

In the mind of a 2+2'er this means a less legitimate hand, but you must remember that villain got here by playing extremely tight, tighter than anyone else. Therefore, his mentality is he's only going to be pushing his last chips in with the best hand preflop (or what he determines to be the best hand).

Enough so, that he is essentially forcing a button call should it get folded back around. This is no resteal, this is a value push.

[Exitonly]

Well, you asked for opinions on the hand, and i dont have as good of a read on the SB as you do, so i'm not goign to argue, but i'm not putting any shortstack on that tight of a range 4 handed.

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you asked for opinions on the hand, and i dont have as good of a read on the SB as you do, so i'm not goign to argue, but i'm not putting any shortstack on that tight of a range 4 handed.


[/ QUOTE ]

Guy you are debating with = Captain Tang

OP= 16characterslong (me)

lol, just don't want you to think that I was trying to argue with you exitonly.

[Exitonly]

Doh, you guys had like the same amount of posts, and both names i had never heard of..

whooops

[ QUOTE ]
Doh, you guys had like the same amount of posts, and both names i had never heard of..

whooops

[/ QUOTE ] Meh, easy mistake. Us noobs are all the same person.