WPT Question

[Spartacus]

My question arises from last night WPT Event at Commerce.
Heads up, between Daniel(~800K) and Gus(~500k), Daniel had AJ off while Gus had A6 clubs with the board looking like this;
Ah Tc 9s 8c
At this point there was about 400K in the pot. Gus checked to Daniel who also checked.

Question: Should Daniel have bet? How much? If Daniel moved in, which I would have, should Gus call?

The river brought a 6 basically broke Daniel's back.

Comments?

[lysis]

On the turn there is really nothing left to do. If Dan goes all in on the turn, I think Gus calls.

You hate to say that Dan made a mistake, when in fact he trapped Gus for a lot of chips getting by far the better of it.

But if there was a mistake, then it was pre-flop. AJo is a very strong hand heads-up. To take a lesson from a true master, think back to the last heads up WPT event with Gus, when he faced off with John Juanda.

On the final hand, Gus made a pre-flop raise from the SB. Juanda, holding the same AJo, re-raised BIG, and then quickly called off all his chips to Gus' all-in re-re-raise. (OK, granted, it didn't work out too good, but it was the master's play...)

I don't see how Danny can simply call that huge re-raise pre-flop. If you REALLY believe Gus, then muck. If not, and I don't see how you could at that stage, then I think he should have taken Juanda's lead, and shoved all-in pre-flop.

When Gus made it 100k+ with A6c, I was at home playing couch quarterback, making the "all-in" comment to myself, expecting Danny to shove in. But he didn't. I think he takes it down pre-flop if he does shove in there.

lysis

[DannyP]

From Daniel's perspective I'm not so sure its an all in. Gus is almost certainly folding if he doesnt have an A or have him beat, and is a big dog without an A if there is no more betting, only on a club draw for 9 outs, trying to trip up for 2 outs, or being generous 1 straight out (he has a Q AND draws a J). Thats 26% compared to his folding chip odds of 5/17 or 29%...fold to live another day. What if he does have an A?

If Gus is an unknown with A and any possible 2d card, he could have 17 hole cards (4 Ks or Qs, or a 2d pair card)that put him ahead now, plus 3 river cards that pair him, plus potential club flush draws (equivalent to another 2 outs or so?) and 3 Js in the hole for a tie. Daniel on the other hand has his 7 or 8 straight cards plus 3 Js to draw or for Gus to have 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 (preferably not clubs!) and not pair up (worth another 17 or 18 outs?). Thats something like 29/22 in Daniels favor. If he wins without any more betting the chip count is 1200 to 500, a lot better than a 29/22 favorite. So I wouldnt go all in here.

If he does go all in I think Gus has a call. If Daniel is ahead he's got A/better kicker, Ace/pair, two lower pair or a made straight (highly unlikely). So Gus has his flush outs, a 7 for the gut straight (which potentially would be a loser to a J or a made straight), and 3 pair cards (a loser to A/pair). So a call of the all in makes him between a 34/12 (discounting the 7s to 3 outs, but calling pairing a loser ) and 30/15 dog (if Daniel has his most likely leading hands), mucking makes him a 12/5 chip dog...right in the middle. So even if he's convinced he's behind, a call is close. Add the possibility that Daniel has A/worse kicker, or a semi-bluff and I think its a call.

In this case Daniel was damned either way.

Just a newbie...where am I off?

[DannyP]

lysis, I agree with the pre-flop all-in with AJo. But you dont think Gus calls at that point with A6s? Is he worse off than 12/5? (My heads-up probabilities arent up to snuff yet).

[Mackie]

I've been thinking about this hand too, from Daniel's perspective. By the turn, there was a possible str8 and a 2 flush on the board. Given this plus the fact that you can never put Gus on a hand, I think Daniel should have bet the turn rather big. If Gus does have an ace, he will call or raise all-in, either of which is fine. If he does not, he will fold. Consider: if Gus does not have an ace Daniel is very unlikely to get any more chips out of him on the hand! Either Daniel will win the pot as it is or he will lose. Given this, checking the turn is a big mistake.

Daniel himself has posted about this hand on rgp.

[Easy E]