($11)(Party) 4-handed, A9o on button, 100/200 blinds

[JudoGirl]

Blinds are 100/200 and will go up in 4 hands.

We have been 4-handed for 11 hands and I've pushed in 3 of those 11 hands without being called. Just previous to that I had pushed 3 or 4 times in a row and was never called. The only hand they saw me show down in the last 25 hands was AA when I called an all-in and busted the 5th player.
Nobody is being overaggressive, but I'm the only one that is in all-in or fold mode (I've been short stacked mostly).

CO folds to me, and I have A9o on the button with the smallest stack with 1710 (but not by much).

Looking at SnGPT, the EV of pushing is about even (22.9%fold/23.94%push, avg calling range). That is a pretty small edge.

What do you do in this situation? Calling just begs one of the blinds to go over the top. Raising 2.5x or 3x really hurts my stack if called and I have to fold on flop. And pushing, of course, commits all your chips on a marginal hand (I've pushed with much worse then this in the last hands of course, but I had a much smaller stack and had to given the situation). Folding with A9o here seems too tight though. I find myself in a lot of situations like this and don't feel any too comfortable with any of the choices. I'm looking for some feedback from successful SnG players for this situation. Do you like to call, raise a small amount, push, or (unlikely) fold here?


Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Hero (1710)
Seat 3: Villan 1 (1778)
Seat 4: Villan 2 (2736)
Seat 10: Villan 3 (1776)
Villan 1 posts small blind (100)
Villan 2 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9h, As ]
Villan 3 folds.
Hero???

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at SnGPT, the EV of pushing is about even (22.9%fold/23.94%push). That is a pretty small edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

i rarely resort to the bold, but it's gotta be done...

sngpt didn't tell you anything on its own. you had to put in calling ranges. if you don't tell us what calling ranges you used, the above statement is worthless

[/rant]

i'd push there.

Pushing situation to me.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]

sngpt didn't tell you anything on its own. you had to put in calling ranges. if you don't tell us what calling ranges you used, the above statement is worthless

i'd push there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to be complete, yet I miss the obviously important...arg...Avg calling range.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[Deuce2High]

Try doing an experiment here.

Change yourself to the caller in the big blind. And put the button pusher on a range you would push with. Then look at how tight you should be calling with.

Then you will see how if you don't push this you have a major leak.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is on the bubble, which means uber agression.

You have a decent ace, and there are only two people left to act. And one of the players left to act is about the same size stack as you.

On the bubble if you push I dont see the other 1700 stack calling without a HUGE hand. He isnt going to risk going broke right before the bubble.

So to me the only person you have to worry about is the big stack. So pushing is the right move here. Pick up the blinds. Just cross your fingers that the big stack two seats from you doesnt have a premium hand.

[pineapple888]

1.) You have quite a bit less than 10BB == push or fold. (plenty of previous discussion on this, but the idea is that you are pot-committed anyway at that point, and you want to maximize your fold equity).

2.) I don't remember the calling ranges, but given that it's the bubble and you can cripple both villains, and the history of the table, the "avg" setting seems too loose to me.

3.) Even if it was only a 1% edge, this is not trivial. Claiming these edges adds up.

[syka16]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A push UTG on the bubble with these stack sizes is usually worth less EV than is indicated on SNGPT since the chances of a call are somewhat larger than say a push from the SB. When you push A9 UTG and are called say 25%, then ~15% total you are knocked out and thus forgo anymore +EV moves.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]
[
Well it is on the bubble, which means uber agression.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, uber aggression on the bubble has been killing me lately!!! I'm looking back and seeing a lot of tournaments that I would likely have cashed in had I not been so uber aggressive on the bubble (I consider bubble 75/150 or 4 players, whichever comes first). I frequently push with the maniac range of hands on the bubble, and if the situation looks right, i push with absolute trash.

But it isn't working well for me and I'm trying to figure out how to fix my game.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

what is an average range?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Try doing an experiment here.

Change yourself to the caller in the big blind. And put the button pusher on a range you would push with. Then look at how tight you should be calling with.

Then you will see how if you don't push this you have a major leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not bad advice, but keep in mind that usually the BB will be too loose. if you push and he busts you with 33, it's little consolation that he made a stupid call.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

what is an average range?

[/ QUOTE ]

The SngPT avg range is 66+, ATs+, AJo+. They may actually be looser than this, which decreases my EV a bit.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A push UTG on the bubble with these stack sizes is usually worth less EV than is indicated on SNGPT since the chances of a call are somewhat larger than say a push from the SB. When you push A9 UTG and are called say 25%, then ~15% total you are knocked out and thus forgo anymore +EV moves.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I take it that you do not like this push then??

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

what is an average range?

[/ QUOTE ]

The SngPT avg range is 66+, ATs+, AJo+. They may actually be looser than this, which decreases my EV a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be surprised to see a call by 66. i'd guess the ranges should be more like 88+, AJ+. nobody likes bubbling.

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]

i would be surprised to see a call by 66. i'd guess the ranges should be more like 88+, AJ+. nobody likes bubbling.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the conventional wisdom here, but to be honest I'm seeing lots of calls on the bubble with worse than 88+, AJ+. It seems like everybody has learned that you need to be uber aggressive on the bubble and thus people are really loosening up their calling hands. That, or there are just a bunch of donks at the $11 level /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

I dunno...I'm trying to figure this out. Would love to watch a successful player for about 50 games...(or read their last 50 hand histories)

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Then you will see how if you don't push this you have a major leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I approve of the above statement.

Yugoslav
Who has a huge QFT leak, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

[JudoGirl]

Ok, the result is that I did indeed push and was busted when BB called w/ pocket T's.

This month I decided to try to tackle the Party $11 NL Holdem SnG's and I've been getting my behind kicked. One of the things I've done to try to improve is get SnGPT and plug in every all-in hand I make or call to try to get a sense for how my intuition lines up with the mathematical calculations.

I was surprised when I found that SnGPT showed this was such a marginal EV push as it seemed a clear push to me, as it apparently does to several of you.

Maybe I'm not using SnGPT correctly. I'll post this hand on their forum and see what is said there...

Thanks for the replies (and additional replies are still appreciated)...

[pineapple888]

Maybe the problem here is that you are relying too *much* on SnGPT.

The obvious reason it gives you such a close answer here is that the "avg" range is so nicely tailored to aces and pairs that have you dominated.

The "correct" bubble play is hugely dependent on reads, and those don't always fall nicely into SnGPT categories.

You really have to develop a "feel" for these situations at the table, weighing many factors, and maybe using SnGPT afterwards to find large, obvious mistakes, or to experiment with different ranges.

But there is never any, single "correct" answer.

Just my thoughts...

[JudoGirl]

I do not rely on SnGPT *at all* for making decisions on how to play a hand.

I only run SnGPT after the fact when I am reviewing my games. I just started playing the Party $11's, and my goal is to learn to play them correctly. Part of my process for learning to play them correctly is reviewing all my hand histories. Part of my hand history review process is plugging the relevant hands into SnG Power Tools to see how my decisions coincided or conflicted with the EV calculations SnGPT gives.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not rely on SnGPT *at all* for making decisions on how to play a hand.

I only run SnGPT after the fact when I am reviewing my games. I just started playing the Party $11's, and my goal is to learn to play them correctly. Part of my process for learning to play them correctly is reviewing all my hand histories. Part of my hand history review process is plugging the relevant hands into SnG Power Tools to see how my decisions coincided or conflicted with the EV calculations SnGPT gives.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yeah. Like I said. Of course you can't use it at the table. But read my other points.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I have not read any one elses reply yet, but IMO push.. 9xbb left your only option is push or fold. A9 is stronger that you think here. you could always get called with a PP or better Ace, but that happens... you need to steal blinds and your next 12 hands could be much worse than A9... pooossshhh!!

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[
Well it is on the bubble, which means uber agression.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, uber aggression on the bubble has been killing me lately!!! I'm looking back and seeing a lot of tournaments that I would likely have cashed in had I not been so uber aggressive on the bubble (I consider bubble 75/150 or 4 players, whichever comes first). I frequently push with the maniac range of hands on the bubble, and if the situation looks right, i push with absolute trash.

But it isn't working well for me and I'm trying to figure out how to fix my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't push garbage until just before I am desperate, but I still have FE

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

what is an average range?

[/ QUOTE ]

The SngPT avg range is 66+, ATs+, AJo+. They may actually be looser than this, which decreases my EV a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be surprised to see a call by 66. i'd guess the ranges should be more like 88+, AJ+. nobody likes bubbling.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the $11's people call w/ all sorts of garbage... 66 is a great hand compared to the garbage I get called with.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

A push UTG on the bubble with these stack sizes is usually worth less EV than is indicated on SNGPT since the chances of a call are somewhat larger than say a push from the SB. When you push A9 UTG and are called say 25%, then ~15% total you are knocked out and thus forgo anymore +EV moves.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought she was on the button...

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
...and I've been getting my behind kicked. ...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is because your Judo is no match for my Kung-fu! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[JudoGirl]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...and I've been getting my behind kicked. ...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is because your Judo is no match for my Kung-fu! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


/images/graemlins/grin.gif Thx for the replies. I think you are right (except for the Kung Fu part--and anyway, didn't you say you were going to "karate chop" me in another post a couple days ago? which is it, kung fu or karate???)

[prana]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing situation to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this an auto-push for you given that SnGPT shows this as a marginal push for an avg calling range? What other factors are you considering that I may be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

what is an average range?

[/ QUOTE ]

The SngPT avg range is 66+, ATs+, AJo+. They may actually be looser than this, which decreases my EV a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would be surprised to see a call by 66. i'd guess the ranges should be more like 88+, AJ+. nobody likes bubbling.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the $11's people call w/ all sorts of garbage... 66 is a great hand compared to the garbage I get called with.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed i definitely think calling range is looser than avg.

[curtains]

This is a brainless allin. Also the edge you gave is extremely large!! The difference was 1%, that is a HUGE amount of EV to gain. eastbay should really get rid of that "its too close to call" option, because it seems to have everyone thinking they should just pass up EV all the time if its close.