Would it be a bad thing if I just started folding AK UI to any bet?

[KSOT]

I'll be the first to admit that I don't know when to release this hand. I frequently find myself making useless continuation bets or chasing the turn and river hoping to pair up. I even call rivers UI sometimes hoping the other person also has a big ace. It's pathetic how much I spew on this "premium" hand that NEVER seems to hit for me. Can I generally start mucking this on the flop in good conscience? Would something like that be devastating to my EV?

[deception5]

You can against a lot of players, especially if the board is coordinated. Against 1-2 players though you often have the best hand. Reads will obviously influence this a lot as will the texture of the board.

The other thing is to consider the effect this has on your big pocket pairs and your hands that do hit (ie if you bet when you have a hand, check/fold when you don't you are fairly easy to play against).

But it's certainly not manditory to raise preflop and follow up with a flop bet - sometimes the best play is to check/fold. "Middle Limit Hold'em" goes into great detail on this and the biggest factors it points out are the number of opponents and your position.

[irishpint]

hmm...i fold AKo pf if there are 2 players already in.

ok, seriously...NO! How can you expect to get an answer to such a general question? On the flop you often will have BDFD, BDSD and 2 overcards- meaning you can often RAISE depending on where the bet came from.

Things to take into consideration:
-the player betting
-the number of players
-your relative position
-pot size (dependant on how many players
-draws (are they betting TP into you or a gutshot?
-your draws/backdoor draws

so no, you cannot fold to a flop bet ALWAYS but I wouldn't say you can NEVER fold. Poker isn't black and white. You dont want to play with my toy soldier.

[aargh57]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm...i fold AKo pf if there are 2 players already in.

ok, seriously...NO! How can you expect to get an answer to such a general question? On the flop you often will have BDFD, BDSD and 2 overcards- meaning you can often RAISE depending on where the bet came from.

Things to take into consideration:
-the player betting
-the number of players
-your relative position
-pot size (dependant on how many players
-draws (are they betting TP into you or a gutshot?
-your draws/backdoor draws

so no, you cannot fold to a flop bet ALWAYS but I wouldn't say you can NEVER fold. Poker isn't black and white. You dont want to play with my toy soldier.

[/ QUOTE ]

aka read SSH playing overcards section

Like everything else in this game, the correct answer is - it depends... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Assume the worst-case scenario - you totally miss the flop, and only have 6 outs for TPTK (3 Aces, 3 Kings) - no flush draws, no straight draws possible. With 6 outs, you'll hit your card by the river a little less than 1 in 3 times. So there needs to be 4 SB in the pot to even consider spending one more bet (which will happen if you raised pre-flop and got at least one caller).

Then, you need to account for the fact that it's possible you get your pair and still lose. This depends a lot on how coordinated the board is - if there are flush draws or straight draws on the board, the pot needs to be higher before you can act.

Then look at your position - if you are closing the action, you can have lower pot odds than if there were 4 people after you who could raise your bet.

Only when you take all of that into consideration can you decide if folding gives you the greatest EV. For me, if I'm closing the action on an uncoordinated board, I'd probably bet if there were only 5 or 6 SB in the pot. If it's a coordinated board where I'm not closing the action, I'd probably need 10 or 11 SB (or more, depending on how coordinated the flop was) in there. In either case, I'd go through the entire exercise again after the turn, when the bets are doubled.

Side note: the problem with a continuation bet here (where you lead the betting), is that it's really not believable after a pre-flop raise, at least to me. Unless you're a maniac who will raise junk hands pre-flop, I have to believe that you missed the flop when it doesn't contain any high cards or good drawing possibilities.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume the worst-case scenario - you totally miss the flop, and only have 6 outs for TPTK (3 Aces, 3 Kings) - no flush draws, no straight draws possible. With 6 outs, you'll hit your card by the river a little less than 1 in 3 times. So there needs to be 4 SB in the pot to even consider spending one more bet (which will happen if you raised pre-flop and got at least one caller).

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This is definitely not the worse case - reverse-domination is much worse. Jason Pohl has some great articles on this.

http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/archives/index.htm

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Side note: the problem with a continuation bet here (where you lead the betting), is that it's really not believable after a pre-flop raise, at least to me. Unless you're a maniac who will raise junk hands pre-flop, I have to believe that you missed the flop when it doesn't contain any high cards or good drawing possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand - if the flop comes 632 and I have AK, if you are holding T9 or A7 you are drawing pretty thin even though I didn't pair up making it a value bet with the best hand.

For all they know, you raised with TT+ and are raising for value.

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I did not read any responses yet. But there are so many different situations with a hand like AK. You should probably just post some hands where you feel lost, then we can comment on them. You seem to be looking for some type of general rule on how to play AK unimproved, sadly there is not.

[deception5]

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For all they know, you raised with TT+ and are raising for value.

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This is of course a possibility. Thing to realize though is that it doesn't matter whether they put you on an ace or a pair. If they can't beat ace high (or even king/queen high) - they are likely behind your entire range and you put a lot of pressure on them to fold.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Assume the worst-case scenario - you totally miss the flop, and only have 6 outs for TPTK (3 Aces, 3 Kings) - no flush draws, no straight draws possible. With 6 outs, you'll hit your card by the river a little less than 1 in 3 times. So there needs to be 4 SB in the pot to even consider spending one more bet

[/ QUOTE ]
just wanted to point out that no one should take this advice. no offense.

[Watain]

Besides the factors that already have been mentioned I would also take into account the chance that someone might take a stab at the pot with no hand at all.

I use reads and pokertracker statistic to evaluate the likehood of this action.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assume the worst-case scenario - you totally miss the flop, and only have 6 outs for TPTK (3 Aces, 3 Kings) - no flush draws, no straight draws possible. With 6 outs, you'll hit your card by the river a little less than 1 in 3 times. So there needs to be 4 SB in the pot to even consider spending one more bet

[/ QUOTE ]
just wanted to point out that no one should take this advice. no offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense taken, but could I trouble you to elaborate just a wee bit there? I'm learning this game just like everyone else, and if my thinking is off somewhere, I'd like to know where.

Yes, I do realize that the 6 outs are not full outs - something I addressed in the next paragraph. In fact, this post prompted me to re-read the overcard section in SSH during lunch, and I agree that I was giving way too much value to those overcards - Sklansky only gives overcards ~1.5 outs each, about half of my number.

[aces_dad]

One thing your post implies that isn't a given is that you don't have the best hand and that you need to go to showdown to win. These two things are often not the case.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing your post implies that isn't a given is that you don't have the best hand and that you need to go to showdown to win. These two things are often not the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. Ok, so maybe "worst-case scenario" wasn't exactly the best phrase to use. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

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On the other hand - if the flop comes 632 and I have AK, if you are holding T9 or A7 you are drawing pretty thin even though I didn't pair up making it a value bet with the best hand.

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Well with T9 (or any other undercards), it's not too thin. Since the cards are live, it's like a 4:1 to the river. Technically, they might be correct in calling a flop bet if the pot is big enough, assuming their cards are still live.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Well with T9 (or any other undercards), it's not too thin. Since the cards are live, it's like a 4:1 to the river. Technically, they might be correct in calling a flop bet if the pot is big enough, assuming their cards are still live.

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But they are only going to improve on the turn around 12% of the time meaning they really need 7:1 odds. They can't assume we'll just give them a free look at the river if they call a flop bet (and we usually wouldn't).

When you consider that they need to discount their outs because:

a.) We might have an overpair or TT/99 in which case we have them drawing extremely thin.
b.) We might have them dominated - they don't know that all 6 outs are good - they are drawing to 3 outs against AT/A9/KT/K9/QT/Q9/JT/J9.
c.) Both of us might improve giving us a better hand

Then they usually must fold to our flop bet with no read even if they think we just have ace high.