10-13-2005, 11:15 AM
Over the last 5k hands or so I've run flat. I feel fortunate just to run flat, things have been bad (won 8 hands in 328 6-max hands last night).
In looking at my stats over the last 2000 hands, my aggression on the river is a pathetic 1.2. Flop is about 2.5 and the turn is almost 4. Long term averages (70k hands) are 2.8/3.2/2.1.
Which brought me to wondering. Am I running flat because I've lost river aggression or have I lost aggression because I'm not hitting or checking behind on scary boards?
Any of the more mathematically inclined have an idea what sort of variance aggression numbers have? Obviously 2k is a tiny sample, but for some things (like VPIP) it doesn't take a large sample. How many hands would it take to establish any idea of if my river wussiness is mostly variance or mostly poor play?
I don't want to ignore a problem if it's there, but neither do I want to rush to change if it's just part of the 6-max swings.
In looking at my stats over the last 2000 hands, my aggression on the river is a pathetic 1.2. Flop is about 2.5 and the turn is almost 4. Long term averages (70k hands) are 2.8/3.2/2.1.
Which brought me to wondering. Am I running flat because I've lost river aggression or have I lost aggression because I'm not hitting or checking behind on scary boards?
Any of the more mathematically inclined have an idea what sort of variance aggression numbers have? Obviously 2k is a tiny sample, but for some things (like VPIP) it doesn't take a large sample. How many hands would it take to establish any idea of if my river wussiness is mostly variance or mostly poor play?
I don't want to ignore a problem if it's there, but neither do I want to rush to change if it's just part of the 6-max swings.