AQ: Domination with Redraws

[naphand]

I feel I should be more certain of these AQ spots, perhaps I am running bad.

TABLE: Fairly loose around the 30% seeing flop mark. Button here is reasonably solid post-flop, PF he is V$IP30/PFR10 over 50 hands. Not much to go on but so far he is NOT raising loosely (i.e. not a LAG), only calling loosely.


$5/$10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Naphand calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Naphand checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Naphand /images/graemlins/mad.gif


My default strategy is to dump AQo UI post-flop to a 3-bet against most reasonably tight/correct 3-bettors. Here I could very well be horribly dominated BUT the board has likely not improved villains hand and offers me a lot of potential improvement on the Turn: I have backdoor flush, straight and probably live outs to the Q (barring AA/KK). Ace outs obviously tainted by AKo.

I am staring at the board - looks like a good spot to peel one. Anyone disagree?

[Munga30]

I'm inclined to fold unless you can say this guy is aware enough to three bet an MP open raiser with 77/KJs/KQ. The 10% PFR doesn't really tell me that one way or another.

[paperboyNC]

I'm getting 8.4 to 1 (with probably more reverse-implied odds than implied odds). You are about 6.4 to 1 to get a pair on the turn.

I'd call here and check-raise a /images/graemlins/heart.gif or J/images/graemlins/club.gif on the turn. I'd donk-bet an A/images/graemlins/club.gif and check/call a Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.

If the flop had a king (and you had only one overcard), you might fold this flop.

[jskills]

I think calling is fine here.

We're folding the turn unless a /images/graemlins/heart.gif, A,Q, or J hits right?

[ErrantNight]

folding is fine. your outs are almost certainly tainted.

a peel wouldn't be awful, but you still can't put a raise in. if you feel villain will 3bet you lite, sure

[naphand]

My plan was to call and CR a Turn Q or J, just calling a /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

The problem with CR the flush card is that it is just too obvious and I am still behind to most of his hands. Getting 3-bet OOP would really suck, and there is a good chance he will do that with the flush card - he is not putting me on a T or 9 (if he holds overs) and is aggressive enough to know that move.

[paperboyNC]

I think his 3-betting range may be wider than you think. He could be 3betting 77+, ATs+ AQo+

If he doesn't have a heart, he could even fold AK when a heart hits the turn.

[W. Deranged]

Peel!

You are right that usually it's best to dump AQ unimproved to a pre-flop three-bettor on the the flop, but here you've got a bunch going.

You should also consider that a fair amount of the time villain might check behind the turn and give you a free shot to improve.

The Nate Tha Great post that Hobbsman recently bumped was very useful in clarifying my thoughts on this situation. OOP, peeling in heads-up pots on the flop should probably be done quite liberally, because villain might check the turn (which will almost invariably increase our equity), and so forth.

I think I'm going to go back and bump that thread.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
villain might check the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

It helps to have more than a "might" but I agree.

[naphand]

Good old Nate - fondly remembered as the resident LAG in the HUSH forum.

I would appreciate seeing that post, if it does not appear here (posted in mid-limit?) perhaps you can let me know the subject and I can look it up myself.

[W. Deranged]

Nap,

I bumped it. The title is "Math Problem with 77" or something. Hobbsman is the OP.

[naphand]

Man you are fast...that was like, less than a minute /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I like peeling here and going for the raise on the turn if you pick up the OESD, flush draw or Q. It will be hard for him to stay in with AK and if he's got something better than that you still have outs.

Math on it is a certain call unless he has exactly AA, or even worse the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[naphand]

There are some differences with the Nate original - the most notable of which is the plan to CR semi-bluff the Turn with a big draw. In this I am AM considering pushing my opponent off a better hand.

This is further complicated as, should I pick up a J or Q, and villain holds exactly AK he has overs plus an inside straight re-draw, which is enough for him NOT to fold. It makes life tough for a pocket underpair, though I think will be less often the case.

(I should add that only the more aggressive players appear to 3-bet mid-pairs in the games I play, and they are easily spotted due to the frequency of this action).

Nate's post is a classic, and I thank-you for the timely link. His comment about the play being made by bad and very good players is very interesting, as I had been mulling over notions of stupid-yet-correct fish-play the last two weeks or so in an attempt understand these plays better.