KK in the SB.

[BigEndian]

UTG+1 looks like he's fairly tight and is passive preflop - raising only premium hands. His aggression postflop is moderate and his raises mean something. I've seen him wait till the turn to raise an overpair. This is a player who's pretty easy to read. I haven't seen anything from him that tells me he's paying attention.

The button is loose and aggressive but not a maniac. He does love position and I've seen him 3-bet an EP raisor with T7s in LP. Postflop his play varies widely as he's observant during a hand (but doesn't seem to pay too much attention to specific seats). He layed down whatever he had against me when I slow-played AA to the turn and put in a raise there. But he has also demonstrated the desire to call down too much.

The BB looks like a tight and reasonable player who I've gotten the better part of recently by luck of the cards.

BigEndian has K/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif in the SB.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, folded to Button who 3-bets, BigEndian calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

3 to the flop and I'm praying for no Ace.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif4/images/graemlins/heart.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG+1 checks, Button bets, BigEndian raises, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
BigEndian bets, UTG+1 raises, Button calls...

What's my plan from here?

- Jim

[JinX11]

This is between a call and a raise, right? I'm thinking Button is on a big diamond since he's calling two cold on the turn with a diamond flush present, so maybe raising to charge him more makes up for the times you're behind UTG+1 and he caps (looks like Button will come along for two more).

I'm pretty torn, too. If this were the mid-high forum, I'm pretty sure they'd advocate raising here, but I don't know if I would do it (which is probably why I'm not playing mid-high).

EDIT: end of first paragraph modified slightly for clarification

[sean c]

Jim why did you check the flop?

[BigEndian]

The button is betting here 100% of the time.

- Jim

[sean c]

Also why no 3-bet pre flop? OOP I see no reason to screw around ans it sounds like button will pay you off.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
The button is betting here 100% of the time.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. Would you have lead a more ragged flop?

[Entity]

Jim,

I think not capping preflop is a fairly large mistake. Given that and how your hand is under-represented, I think you can 3-bet and fold to a cap here on the turn. UTG+1 may have AdXd (Td, Jd, Qd, Kd), but he very well may have 99-QQ as well and have decided to wait for the turn to raise.

Rob

[ErrantNight]

why no cap preflop? because of the range of hands for UTG+1? are you only capping with AA here? at all?

anyway... on the turn is it safe to assume when the button just calls here he doesn't have AA, and at worst (for us) he has the other KK and got spooked, but it's more likely he has an underpair (or, perhaps, unimproved A-high with a diamond)

UTG+1's raise means overpair to the board. So we're getting the pot padded by the button and there's a chance he makes this raise with QQ and a slim chance he makes it with JJ. However, a 3-bet opens us up to a cap which we don't want, since making a laydown here seems like something we'd like to avoid. So I think a call is in order.

On the river, between bet/call and check/call:

Bet/call seems wrong because we may lose the button who is likely providing us overlay (and if we want him forced out it's on the turn when he may still have outs).

Check/call seems weak but UTG+1 likes their hand enough to be betting here almost all the time and button seems committed to calling down and this seems like one instance where an overcall wouldn't be too offensive.

[ErrantNight]

given hero's reads shouldn't we be removing 99, TT, and discounting the likelihood of JJ?

if his hand range is that broad I agree 3-betting seems better.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
given hero's reads shouldn't we be removing 99, TT, and discounting the likelihood of JJ?

if his hand range is that broad I agree 3-betting seems better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. I could have a different interpretation of 'only premium' hands. Maybe removing 99 but leaving TT and JJ? That makes the decision a bit closer. Given that our hand looks a lot like an overpair here (but something like 77-TT rather than KK), I feel like his range can be wide enough to 3-bet profitably. However, I'm realizing that due to the paired board, we can't fold to a cap.

I'm pausing on the 3-bet now. In practice I don't 3-bet one pair on the turn very often, but preflop has things muddled to the point that I think it's got value here. Argh.

Rob

[ErrantNight]

I agree... would you cap QQ preflop here?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree... would you cap QQ preflop here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. His read is gonna have to be that UTG is VERY tight-passive (QQ+, AK) -- that's about 3% pfr -- over a large sample for me to give pause to capping with my premiums here.

Rob

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
The button is loose and aggressive but not a maniac. He does love position and I've seen him 3-bet an EP raisor with T7s in LP.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a good argument for capping pre-flop rather than disguising our hand. The possibility of UTG+1 folding and getting HU with this guy would be ideal, no?

I think it's reasonable that UTG+1 just has a smaller PP. He's likely confident in his hand for the reasoning you gave about the button. I would 3-bet the turn while our opponents are still in. We lack position, so no need to try and get tricky when a value raise is setup for us like this. If it get's capped i'm just calling the rest down.

[ErrantNight]

From his original post that's the general hand range I was putting villain on /images/graemlins/smile.gif But if pfr% is up around 5 or 6 I can't fathom what stopped a cap other than a misclick. Or misfired brain sinapses.

[BigEndian]

I hate using numbers, but this player was 4% PFR and 23% flops (300 hands). So, while not super tight, very passive preflop. But, as evidenced by another hand where he waited to raise an overpair on the turn (I believe it was TT), not necessarily passive post flop. More along the moderate lines.

- Jim

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate using numbers, but this player was 4% PFR and 23% flops (300 hands). So, while not super tight, very passive preflop. But, as evidenced by another hand where he waited to raise an overpair on the turn (I believe it was TT also), not necessarily passive post flop. More along the moderate lines.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, 300 hands isn't enough for me to not cap this preflop. Same goes for QQ. 4% PFR is, FWIW, 99+,AQs+,AKo. That's a fair amount enough hands.

Given your preflop description and postflop tendencies, I think 3-betting, calling a cap, and checkfolding the river UI is the correct play here. If you're called bet any non-diamond, non-3 river.

Rob

[BigEndian]

UTG+1 is raising nothing PF that he would fold when faced with 2 cold.

- Jim

[mtdoak]

call down. He could just as well have just hte bare Ad or 6d

[BigEndian]

You don't take into account his position PF and it's effect on his hand range here?

- Jim

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't take into account his position PF and it's effect on his hand range here?

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, players raising very few of their hands don't vary their raises that much by position, because they don't tend to steal as much in late position. The reason an 11% PFR is raising less hands UTG is an 11% PFR tends to be more aware of position, isolation, and the diminishing value of some of their hands as they move further from the Button. To go along with the fact that you don't have many hands on this guy, there is also the tendency for a player like this to 'play their cards' and be playing correct preflop strategy (or their approximation of correct strategy) without the knowledge of raising more in EP/less in EP. A 4% PFR tends to be very close to a 4% PFR UTG, while a 9% PFR tends to have some % of their hands be "LP" raises.

Rob

[SenecaJim]

Jim, this is a tough one. I know that you already know this, but I think not capping preflop was a huge mistake. I believe it lead you to this difficult situation. I'm not talking from on high, I just under-represented my aces couple nights ago, but on flop. I bet out, MP1 raised, button called. And instead of reraising , I just called with threatening board.

So I check on turn and flop raiser bets and button raises. There are 3 to a flush and 4 to a straight and I have no idea where I am in the hand.

I agonized for hours later at home over turn decision. AND then it hit me, under-representing my hand by not reraising on the flop was IT. that was IT.

I'm not going on about my own story to be rude,but best answer I can give now, after my own stupidity/pussout, is don't put yourself in those situations, because as you can see, no one really knows what is best now. Good luck.

[SenecaJim]

Ps. button was loose preflop but only raised post flop with the nuts ( only raised turn 2 times earlier hands ). This was live, no stats. However, didn't have the nuts this time. Again, my pussydom emboldened him.

[BigEndian]

That's a good point. I think a counter agrument might be that a passive player PF will be even more passive in early position. For my part, I think it's true that position plays a part - even if only subconciously - and a he would be much more willing to fold or call with 99, TT in EP. This is, of course, subjective.

I only called before the flop so see if I would need to dodge an Ace and play accordingly. I felt reasonably certain that this seat would not cap even AKs and maybe not JJ. Whether my play postflop with this information can make up for the 2SBs I'm giving up preflop is debatable.

On the turn, I felt the most likely hands UTG+1 had were Ax/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Followed at a distance by JJ, QQ and AA with a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I didn't think it likely he would raise with an overpair without the diamond with two opponents. Previously when he raised with an overpair, it was heads-up (I should have included that info). That might have sent me down that path of thinking, but I'm not certain.

I called...

River: 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif
BigEndian checks, UTG+1 bets, Button raises...

- Jim

[BigEndian]

This is another good point. My thinking was the other way around - merely calling to gain more information about UTG+1 that might improve my play post-flop. The button was not my worry at all. If this was a hand against any two random players I'd be capping of course.

No one has mentioned this, but this is a play better reserved for hands like JJ and QQ. KK is still so likely to be ahead that the PF cap would be for value (2SBs of value).

But that's the crux of the matter, making up the 2SBs post flop.

- Jim

[SenecaJim]

I see your reasoning. Good post. Has made me think about the different views of same hand. Great exercise. Keep them coming.

[SackUp]

Ugg, this sucks. I doubt he three bets 67s, though 88 is possible. It could be 99-QQ thinking that he has the best hand now.

I think I'm calling and praying UTG does not reraise.