another live nl hand

[GrunchCan]

once again, the 1-2 no-limit game at mgm vegas, 200 max.

Hero has A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif UTG & 450 behind. Raise to 7 (standard). The SB is a bit loose preflop, a bit loose postflop, reasonably aggressive and probably sees me as a target since i'm the big stack. i cover by maybe 100. sb calls.

2 to the flop for 16. flop comes J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. i dont do many continuation bets, and i think this opponent knows it. sb checks, i bet 15. sb calls.

2 to the turn for 46. turn comes [J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif] J/images/graemlins/spade.gif check, check.

river comes [J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif] A/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB checks, I bet 50.

[mudbuddha]

i like betting that turn just bc its a scary card.. it gives me shivers.. theres a good chance he lays it down right there.. you have no idea if he is slowplaying you or not and you threw 50$ into the river.. if he did slowplay then your just handing him $50 for a excellent check on the turn

[orange]

I like checking the turn. You have a big draw, but cannot continue after a big c/r.

Everything else looks goot.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I like checking the turn. You have a big draw, but cannot continue after a big c/r.

Everything else looks goot.

[/ QUOTE ]

right. if my A/images/graemlins/spade.gif were actually the A/images/graemlins/club.gif i would have bet-folded the turn & checked behind the river.

[RED FACE]

I think you may be playing with some fire there. What hands does he call with that you beat?

If he hit the 8 and decided to keep you honest on that flop he's not calling the A on the river. Same w a pp.

I don't put him on AQ as he checked the river though it is just possible he put you on hitting the J then checking when the turn made your hand very strong... but no, that put 3 spades on the board so 3 J's prob would've bet again to protect.

Let us know what happened once you get some responses.

[stu-unger]

nh

from my experience in this game (~100hrs) i think u get called by most of these players with enough hands u beat to make this profitable.

[Riposte]

First thoughts that come to mind... his check-call on the flop indicates more of a draw than top pair. If he's reasonably aggressive I would think he'd bet top pair/two-pair/set. If you haven't been doing many continuation bets, it's unlikely he'd call middle or bottom pair (although you say he's a bit loose postflop, would he chase a gutshot or call with middle/bottom pair?).

That leaves us with a straight or flush draw. So... if he's reasonably aggressive I would think he'd bet his flush draw (unless the second Jack scared him?).

So... missed straight draw, good river value bet. Bad reasoning?

EDIT: Just read TWP's post below and I like the check better too. If the guy did have a straight draw, he's folding to your value bet. But he could still have the flush (or trip jacks however unlikely given your read), so the check saves you $$$.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Very very thin. I just check behind. The combination of your being behind and his folding make this very thin, IMO. You're probably ahead, but he probably folds.

[Salerosa]

I probably check behind on the river, and I don't mind a bet on the turn as I think you take it down alot of the time here. A 50 bet on that river is just asking for a huge reraise/push if he is really agressive and views you as a target as you say, which you cannot call without a very good read.