$2k PLO8, river nut low

[Wintermute]

Buy in for .1 stack high society, this hand comes up first orbit. No read on Villain, he’s probably a skin player relocated to Party. (He has no read on me, same reason.)

$2000 PL Omaha Hi/Lo Table Table 68946 (No DP) (Real Money)

Seat 2: swamisez2 ( $734 )
Seat 6: BigMaverick ( $1779.25 )
Seat 8: snorty ( $726.53 )
Seat 9: Ushie ( $1875 )
Seat 5: Villain ( $3204.44 )
Seat 10: Hero ( $967.50 )
Seat 1: Countrywide ( $2006 )
Seat 3: uhlebox ( $1050.04 )
Seat 7: CaliSugarDad ( $1940.50 )
Seat 4: wbtrump ( $1997 )
Villain posts small blind [$10].
BigMaverick posts big blind [$20].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qh Ts As 2h ]

CaliSugarDad folds.
snorty calls [$20].
Hero raises [$90].
Countrywide folds.
swamisez2 folds.
uhlebox folds.
wbtrump folds.
Villain calls [$80].
BigMaverick folds.
snorty folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 4h, 9d ]

Villain checks.
Hero bets [$217].
Villain calls [$217].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]

Villain checks.
Hero checks.

** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]

Villain checks.

Bet, or am I just going to get myself quartered? ($650 pot, about that much behind.)

[emptyshell]

I'd normally bet here and usually get quartered. The better move is to check behind, IMO. The two most likely hands he calls the flop are nut low + a pair (not good for you) or nut flush draw (better). The only benefit of a bet, then, would be in folding out a missed flush draw that happened to also have a pair. If he decided to call the flop with something like an overpair, he's likely calling the river after the low hits.

My feeling is that, if you bet, you are more likely to lose $325 then gain it. There is a wildcard, though, in that you will occasionally get called by a naked 2nd nut low. (You'll also occasionally get checkraised by A26, but your stack size makes this irrelevant.) So, against a loose player, I might change my suggestion.

All that being said, I have to admit I would jam here almost every time, especially given the shortish stack.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
The two most likely hands he calls the flop are nut low + a pair (not good for you) or nut flush draw (better).

[/ QUOTE ]
I figured much the same thing after he called the flop bet (nl or nf draw). But then thought it was pretty weird he would check the river if he was on the nut low draw w/ pair. I mean, he knows a check-raise is useless since the pot is same size as my stack. Unless he thinks I'll fold to a bet with naked nut low, but that I'll bet it if he checks to me, it's crazy for him to check with nut low and pair. (Unless he's a total pussy, worried about being quartered himself.)

[emptyshell]

A lot of the better (tighter) players at the $400 level will check/call or check behind with nut low + a smallish pair, especially when it is conceivable another nut low has them beat for high. I'm not convinced that this is a bad strategy, actually.

[Mendacious]

His check can't be interpreted as anything but weakness, but you have no hi. I think I bet the pot and live with the result based solely on the fact that you have position, he has shown weakness the entire hand, and he has no way of knowing the two-way strength of your hand.

I'm rather new to PLO8, but wouldn't the times we make him fold a better high hand than A high more than make up for the times we are quartered here?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm rather new to PLO8, but wouldn't the times we make him fold a better high hand than A high more than make up for the times we are quartered here?

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting point.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm rather new to PLO8, but wouldn't the times we make him fold a better high hand than A high more than make up for the times we are quartered here?

[/ QUOTE ]

What everyone else is saying is that there are very few better high hands that call this flop. Like they said, pretty much just the NFD with a random pair.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm rather new to PLO8, but wouldn't the times we make him fold a better high hand than A high more than make up for the times we are quartered here?

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting point.

[/ QUOTE ]
When we get him to fold a better hand, we gain ~350. When we get quartered, we lose about 275. So just do the math. I think a bet is probably worth it.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm rather new to PLO8, but wouldn't the times we make him fold a better high hand than A high more than make up for the times we are quartered here?

[/ QUOTE ]

interesting point.

[/ QUOTE ]
When we get him to fold a better hand, we gain ~350. When we get quartered, we lose about 275. So just do the math. I think a bet is probably worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Plus there's the times we quarter him because his no-pair is weaker, as well as the times he is being a fking tard and calls with absolute crap, like he did this time:

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qh Ts As 2h ]

CaliSugarDad folds.
snorty calls [$20].
Hero raises [$90].
Countrywide folds.
swamisez2 folds.
uhlebox folds.
wbtrump folds.
Villain calls [$80].
BigMaverick folds.
snorty folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 4h, 9d ]

Villain checks.
Hero bets [$217].
Villain calls [$217].

** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]

Villain checks.
Hero checks.

** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]

Villain checks.
Hero bets [$651].
Villain calls [$651].

Hero shows [ Qh, Ts, As, 2h ] a pair of sixes. Hero shows 8,6,4,2,A for low. jc041102 doesn't show [ Ac, Jd, 5s, 3s ] a pair of sixes. jc041102 doesn't show 8,6,4,3,A for low. Hero wins $976.50 from the main pot with a pair of sixes with queen kicker. Hero wins Lo ($976.50) from the main pot with 8,6,4,2,A.

So I think I'm willing to risk get quartered here some of the time.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You should have bought for 2K if you were playing the fake money tables. Nice hand.

[Wintermute]

Actually I think part of the reason I got paid off may have had to do with buying in short. I myself make some more marginal plays against a player who buys in short, out of lack of respect or whatever.

[Drizztdj]

He called with a non-nut low and no pair? Ouch.