Variance In Turbos

[-Skeme-]

What should the typical variance for Turbo SNGs look like? I'm a regular in the Stars $15+1 Turbo SNGs and it seems like I fall into 2-3 day downswings every week. Typically I'll bubble a lot, get bad beaten, repeatedly run my AQs into overpairs and AK, and AKs into overpairs, and just keep making very good second best hands.

What am I supposed to expect? I'm pretty new to the whole nothing-but-SNG thing as I'm primarily a cash player.

My ROI is like 14% but only after about 220 SNGs, so it's not too accurate.

Thanks.

[Skipbidder]

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Typically I'll bubble a lot, get bad beaten...repeatedly run my AQs into overpairs and AK, and AKs into overpairs

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You are running really bad if your AKs run into overpairs.

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Typically I'll bubble a lot, get bad beaten...repeatedly run my AQs into overpairs and AK, and AKs into overpairs

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You are running really bad if your AKs run into overpairs.

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I was thinking the exact same thing. Overpair to an Ace? Hmmmmmmmmm... WILD CARD!

I can't get a joker to save my life.

[SCfuji]

stay away from fujithefish's tables (i am a human luckbox). that is all. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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stay away from fujithefish's tables (i am a human luckbox). that is all. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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Run from the luck box, RUN!!!!!!!!!

[-Skeme-]

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You are running really bad if your AKs run into overpairs.

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Meant the 2 high pairs that have me dominated. Can I get some serious responses?

[SammyKid11]

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You are running really bad if your AKs run into overpairs.

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Meant the 2 high pairs that have me dominated. Can I get some serious responses?

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Yes. Work on improving your play, not ruminating about your bad beats and downswings. Those things ARE going to happen, though with 220 tourneys and no specific hands posted, it'd be nearly impossible for any of us to tell whether you're playing poorly or just running bad (or maybe neither, 14% isn't, you know, awful).

Work on specific areas of your game rather than looking for self-assurance about the swings. You're an experienced poster, anyway, I'm sure you know that a) you don't have nearly enough sample data to determine even close to your "true" ROI, and b) that big swings and "mini-swings" happen all the time.

Chill. Work hard. Lates.

[-Skeme-]

Nobody is ruminating, sir. I understand my sample size is too small to reflect an accurate assessment of anything important right now, which is why I made this thread. I'm asking if these swings are normal for Turbo SNGs. Mainly because I'd like to know what to expect in the future.

I've rarely experienced this trend while playing cash games, so I'm slightly concerned. If others would've replied and said, "No, this never happens to me," I'd begin posting more and more hands to nail my problem and plug the leak.

Thanks for the reply.

[Sidekick]

Yes, such swings are normal.

Even if you are a winning player expect to have losing sets of 500 SNGs (though hopefully not too often). Losing money over 150 SNGs is not uncommon at all. On the other hand when you post a 50% ROI over 300 SNGs don't think that you have suddenly found the secret to success at SNGs.

SNG results are streaky. If you've never run into a 10k bad streak playing in ring games you've been fortunate. I've seen posters on these boards that (I believe them anyways) have over 25% ROI that have posted losses over 500 SNG sets and break even for 1k sets.

I finished out of the money in 12 straight SNGs today. Went in as a 2-1 or better favorite in 7 of them, as a slight favorite in 3 others, a 3-1 dog in 1 and a 4-1 dog in the other. In most of the games I had a decent to healthy chip stack too. I just got called by lesser hands and my hands didn't hold up. Such things are going to happen (even though I was ready to pull my hair out the last time my KK got trashed).

Hope your week improves and this post answers your question.