Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop

[Lloyd]

This is part two on our second "Play a Hand with the Maters". If you haven't already read and contributed to part one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3643926&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) you should do so first.

Setup
$100+9 Party Poker MTT
Blinds 50/100
Hero is Gigabet
No strong read on villain

Stacks
Hero: t2670
Villain: t2915

Pre-Flop
Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG folds. Hero raises to t275. All fold to BB who calls.

Flop
Pot: t600

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

What range of hands do you put the villain on? Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why that amount? What do you do if he raises you? Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[Roman]

AQ-AT
KQ-KT
QJ (QT maybe)
22-TT

Bet 300-450 and try to get it in here.

edit: mistyped bet size

[rockythecat99]

I think villains range here is AK-ATs, KQs, maybe suited connectors down to 65s and of course 22-TT maybe JJ. I am ahead of all of these hands except JJ and tie with AK.

I bet here 350-400 as a continuation bet. If he raises me I am pushing. As given his range I bet most of his hands. If he has QT or JJ then well thats poker.

If he just flat calls me and checks the turn I am pushing unless and ugly ten hits. The I probably check behind and hopefully showdown. I'm afraid of a ten as it is more likely given the range I put him on that he has a q than a T to complete his straight.

Villain called on the BB getting great odds for less than 1/10 of his stack, so I expect his range to be something like 22-TT, A8s-AQs, AJo, AQo, KJ+, 78s+ or so.

I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.

I think a bet of 300-450 is good. No hand that's behind us gets odds to see the turn from a bet like that. Since we're Gigabet here, and we've got a very aggro reputation, I think I'd go with exactly 450, to make an A consider calling.

I'm horrible about getting check-raised on a flop like this with 2-pair, so I won't discuss my response, but I'm very interested in others' opinions.

[Black Aces 518]

I may wait a decent amount of time and then check behind to induce a blufl on the turn. I only hate a Q or T coming off and I'm willing to risk that to double up here. If he has JJ, KK, or AA (or QT), then lucky him, he's getting paid.

[jedinite]

Assuming I've been making standard continuation bets, I'm going to continuation bet this flop with my big hand, and would be happy for the money to go in the middle here if i'm re-raised. T300 - T450 (half to 2/3rds pot) depending on my usual approach.

I think the standard continuation bet here shows more potential weakness than a check - we're an aggressive player, we've taken the lead preflop and there's almost no way this hand didn't hit one or both of us. If our opponent is on an underpair the flop has already killed any potential action unless we let him catch a set. If he's on QT he's outflopped us and I'm probably going to go broke here (unless we had a read on the player as exceptionally tight, which we don't).

I think the standard continuation bet opens the door enough for a our opponent to make a move against us. if we're re-raised I'm content for the money to go in the middle with top two at this point, if we're behind I suggest spiking an ace on the river.

I can't imagine the turn bringing anything that's going to help our action (but not put us way behind) based on our opponent's typical hand range, so I can't see giving a free card here to represent weakness. I think continuing our typical agressive play has a better chance of inducing a bluff if we are up against Ax - in fact the weaker continuation bet (bordering on a probe bet) seems like the best way to do so.

[Roman]

[qoute]

I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.



[/ QUOTE ]

you think checking because he has a chance of hitting a 2-6 outer is too expensive? I definitely disagree there, I bet anyway cause the flop looks like it could have hit him and hopefully he will interpret the bet as a cont bet/steal and just get it in on the flop when a Q or T on the turn can kill your action.

[rockythecat99]

One thing I meant to ask on my first post is what is read on villain. Given this board will he bluff at it with 99 if we check behind on the flop? If the answer is yes then I might be inclined to check behind.

This is an interesting one. You have top two pair on a rainbow flop. There seem to me to be few hands you are behing. AA, KK, JJ and QT. All of these hands are possible, some people would reraise AA or KK but the hand is already headsup at this point so he may be trying to trap you. JJ is an obvious caller preflop and QT probably is from the BB as well. Against all these hands you are a massive underdog, drawing dead or to 4 outs.
The far more likely scenario though is that you are way ahead and should be looking to extract as much money from him as possible. He may have a gutshot draw if he has a Q or a T but I personally don't think this draw is worth worrying about too much. Perhaps I am a little reckless here but I'm not too worried about letting someone draw to a gutshot here since if it hits it's pretty easy to see.

given all this I think the best thing to do is check in behind him and hope to induce a bluff on the turn. If he makes a pot sized bet on the turn I push provided turn isn't a J, T, or Q in which case I'd call.
If the turn blanks and he checks, I'd make about a $400 -$500 bet hoping for him to checkraise me.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I think checking is too expensive here, as a good percentage of these hands have two-outers or better against us.



[/ QUOTE ]

you think checking because he has a chance of hitting a 2-6 outer is too expensive? I definitely disagree there, I bet anyway cause the flop looks like it could have hit him and hopefully he will interpret the bet as a cont bet/steal and just get it in on the flop when a Q or T on the turn can kill your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.

[betgo]

I think you have to make a continuation bet. First of all, you raised preflop and villain called from the BB. What did you raise with the missed this flop? Even if you had a an underpair or were semibluffing with a speculative hand, you would bet this flop. Since villain is in the BB, if you missed this flop, there is reason to believe villain may have also missed it. A check is suspicious.

Furthermore, another high card could easily make villain a straight. Right now QT, JJ, KK, an AA are the only hands you are behind, and villain would proabably have reraised with all but QT.

If villain raises I might push or might flat call hoping villain will fire on the turn. If the raise is for a good portion of the stacks, I would push, as I am somewhat worried about straights. If villain has me beat, he is going to bust me.

[ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the villain on?

[/ QUOTE ]

AA and KK, while in the range are not probable due to the board and Hero's hand. Could also include QQ-TT, AKs to ATs, AK,AQ with AK less likely or KQs to JTs.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why that amount?

[/ QUOTE ]
I bet 400, I have a strong hand and want to make some money off of it, but I don't want to give any free cards to a possible straight. (I'm guessing that 4th street tomorrow is going to show a T or Q), giving him 2.5 to 1 odds to call, not great if he's on a inside straight draw.

[ QUOTE ]

What do you do if he raises you? Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he raises my bet, I have to figure he flopped a set or a straight and as much as it hurts, I've got to lay down. Check raising an UTG raiser shows balls or a strong hand. If he calls, I'm also going to worry he has a set or a straight and check it down from there unless I hit a full house on 4th street or the river.

[gergery]

Since villain was getting 2:1, he could have a wide range. JJ-22, suited connectors, unsuited connectors, suited aces, medium aces are all possible depending on opponent.

My action depends on the opponent. If he is loose or over-agro, then I might check and trap. If he’s pretty solid and tight, I’ll just bet out.

Default play is to bet 425 here. If I’m reraised, then I’m not so happy, since I only see most making that play with QT, JJ if ahead, or AJ, KJ if behind, maybe also AK for tie. But top 2 with pot odds and some chances to improve means we’re probably going to get it all in.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said. I'm ahead now, most aces held by an idiot call this anyway, all two pair hands get it in, at least 11 cards either kill the action or my hand...I'm playing this very strong all the way down until something convinces me not to.

edit: What villain has is not particularly important. On this flop, either he's going to give action or he's not.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises my bet, I have to figure he flopped a set or a straight and as much as it hurts, I've got to lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can’t he have AJ or KJ to make the raise? Why not another AK that doesn’t want to play a big pot out of position in the early stages?

Those hands are dealt at least as often as QT/JJ, and you have money in the middle already.

[Koss]

[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, another high card could easily make villain a straight. Right now QT, JJ, KK, an AA are the only hands you are behind, and villain would proabably have reraised with all but QT.


[/ QUOTE ]

JJ may just call hoping for a safe looking flop before moving. I've seen people just calling headsup with AA/KK hoping to trap. If that was his plan here, he got lucky and hit one of the few flops he can really sucker us in with.

I'm betting this flop. Whatever bet looks like I want some action. If he's behind, I want to keep him in the hand. I think a smaller probeish bet will work here. 250-300. Something that makes him think about calling, but a bet that he may call with a weaker holding in this case like KQ. If I get check-raised, I'm pushing. No questions asked. I'm ready to go broke here. If I have the best hand and just call a check raise, and then he pushes a Q or T on the river I don't know if I could make the call. I think I have the best hand here enough to make a push of a check-raise the right play. I don't want a card to hit on the turn that will let him bluff me off top 2. And if he did catch a set of jacks or a straight, I can always suck out.

[Sam T.]

Villain had to pay 175 into a pot worth 425, and knows that he's OOP for the rest of the hand, so I'd go with: JJ-22, AK-AQs. I'd add some weaker aces and maybe KQ if he's a donk, or is thinking "I could bust gigabet!" If he's on QT, well Merry Christmas.

I like this flop (duh), and don't anticipate getting out of the hand without all of my chips in the middle. With the check, I'm going to take JJ out of the mix, as it is unlikely he's going to risk giving a free card at this point.

I'll usually bet t350 because I'm an ABC player, and I don't much like giving a free cards. 350 gives him incorrect odds to call if he is drawing to the straight and I don't mind taking down the pot.

The argument for checking can, however, be made. You are either way ahead, with villain drawing to 2-4 outs (AQ, AJ, QQ, TT) or way behind (AA, KK, JJ or QT, none of which seem particularly likely). Let him think you're on 99 or QQ, and you've decided to shut it down. Seems like a good situation to see if he'll bluff at the pot. The more I think about it, the more I like checking to induce the bluff.

If I bet, and he raises me...Pooosh. No way I'm getting away from top two pair with ~1000 in the pot. Alternately I could see calling, and get it in on the turn, 'cause you know he's going to bet.

If I bet and he calls...well I guess I'll wait to see what the turn brings. If it's a ten, well, hell. I might have to shut it down. If it's a queen, I worry, but probably go broke/double up. Anything else, all-in.

Edit: After reading the other replies I'm convinced that betting is the right move. If he raises...all-in.

As the BB, Villain got to see the flop pretty cheaply, so I would not be surprised to see AT+, A8s+, KJ+, 22+, even QT, QJ, and some lower suited connectors are possibilities. Especially if I've got an aggressive reputation, I'm inclined to rule out TT+ and AK, maybe even AQ, as I'd expect a re-raise from those hands.

Unfortunately, this flop is pretty scary for that range, so it might be difficult to get paid off here (I don't think I'm likely to be behind, so I'm looking to get as many chips in as I can). I think my best bet is to represent a medium pocket pair making a continuation bet and hope Villain got a piece of the flop. I'd probably bet 200-250; it's a very callable bet, doesn't give proper odds to a gut shot, and could represent an attempt to take down the pot cheaply on a missed board that Villain knows I know is likely to be scary for him.

If Villain raises, I call, putting him on a worse two pair as his most likely holding. A call could mean a lot of things, such as a pair and a gut shot, and he may be inclined to lead out the turn to 'protect' his hand. Plus, if he's got two pair or a set, there are miracle turn cards that could make him a low boat. Finally, in the unlikely event that Villain is ahead, I avoid putting any more chips in the pot without forcing him to give me more information.

If he check-raises and my hand doesn't improve, I'm calling down but probably not doing any more betting, absent a scary card or out-of-line play from Villain. If he check-calls, I'll make a larger bet on a blank turn, trying to look like I am buying it. If I make a boat, my bet will be smaller. If a Q or T comes, I'll check behind and call if he bets out the river- he may have a straight, but I may also induce a bluff this way.

[Rduke55]

I put him on any pair, medium/high ace, or two broadway. The overwhelming majority of which we are substantially ahead of and this flop could easily have hit him.
I like a nice sized bet here precisely because he may think his AJ, KJ etc. has us crushed.
I bet 450. Maybe 500.

[TomHimself]

I dont understand why everyone thinks Giga is playing under a recognizable name, he could be playing as "KimHung" for allwe kno. so i think that dismisses the idea that a player would want to bust gigabet.

I bet here, around 400 and like adanthar said ur either gonna get action or not i dont think a range is that important right now

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Since villain was getting 2:1, he could have a wide range. JJ-22, suited connectors, unsuited connectors, suited aces, medium aces are all possible depending on opponent.

My action depends on the opponent. If he is loose or over-agro, then I might check and trap. If he’s pretty solid and tight, I’ll just bet out.

Default play is to bet 425 here. If I’m reraised, then I’m not so happy, since I only see most making that play with QT, JJ if ahead, or AJ, KJ if behind, maybe also AK for tie. But top 2 with pot odds and some chances to improve means we’re probably going to get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with OmahaGreg

Regards,
Woodguy

[Paul Thomson]

Personally, I'm putting him on a middle pocket pair or AK. Since the stacks are deep, I think the villian would throw away weaker Aces and re-raise with AA-QQ maybe even JJ. But a call makes sense with a pocket pair because they're easy to play out of position and since both players have deep stacks, then it's worth the risk. If the villlan is loose, then maybe he'll call with a low suited connectors, but I doubt it if he knew the hero was Gigabet. Why would he want to play with fire?

I bet $300 into the pot because I don't mind if I get played with a little bit. I want it to look like a weak continuation bet and pray that the villian has AQ or AJ. The hand I'm afraid of that the villian could definilty have is JJ or AK. If the villian comes over the top and raises me 900, then I'll probably call. And call any bet on the turn. Or bet any turn card. I can't get away from this hand online. There are just too few spots to double up and this is one of them. The blinds increase quickly and even though the stacks are deep now, we're going to need the chips soon enough.

[ QUOTE ]

Why can’t he have AJ or KJ to make the raise? Why not another AK that doesn’t want to play a big pot out of position in the early stages?

Those hands are dealt at least as often as QT/JJ, and you have money in the middle already.

[/ QUOTE ]

With an UTG raise of 3x, he should assume that he could behind with AJ or KJ with at least a 30% to 50% probability (I haven't tallied the hands, so this is approx don't beat me up on this). I guess since the there is no prior info on the player that he could be loose enough to make this bet and it is a possibility (I never said he can't have these hands). I don't think I would risk my tourney on it until I got a better handle on how he's playing.

[Firefly]

BB has something like low sooted connectors, AT+, KJ+ maybe QT+, 22-JJ.
I bet 400 here. I like my hand and i hope my opponent does too.

[K-mac]

Note: Grunching

I would say that the BB could be calling with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ and maybe down to QJ. Also any pair from 10's down to 7's (maybe lower I am not too sure)
As far as a bet, i would bet t350 or so (i think that is a continuation bet, right?) If i get reraise i think i am pushing. I wouldnt mind a push because i am not sure that i can put AA or KK into the villians range as i suspect he would have reraised me. JJ may be a possibility, but again i think he may reraise with that as well.
At this point, i wouldnt mind getting all of my chips in if the turn doesnt pair the board or put a 10 or Q.

One thing that i am scared of is him calling the raise with Q 10 and flopping the straight.

How off am i here?

[EverettKings]

I absolutely HATE checking this. You raise to 300 from EP and check behind an AKJ flop? Duh, major red flags.

Obviously you have to bet, I vote for 425. He knows you usually hit this flop, but it's too drawlicious to give a free card. If you check he knows exactly where he stands and will only give action if you don't want it. Other top pair and two pair hands arent going away when you make your cont. bet, but if you check they will be flipping terrified.

It might be more interesting to check behind this flop if you raised with some garbage like 75 or J9. Hell, even then I don't really like checking.

So yeah, bet this.

---Everett

Edit: I forgot to answer the other questions.

His range, with such good pot odds, is all pairs and maybe some decent looking connectorish cards (T7s, 98o, etc) and AQ/AJ ish hands. Pretty wide.

If he reraises me on the flop I jam. Simple as that.

If he calls and the turn bricks I either check behind to extract another bet (maybe even a push) out of him on the river (and accept my fate when the T/images/graemlins/spade.gif falls), or smooth call in the unlikely event that he leads. If a bad card (spade, T, Q, etc) turns I probably check behind and plan to call most river bets by him, since betting and getting raised in that spot would suck (and he is highly unlikely to give further action with a worse hand). And at that point another free card isn't as disastrous. I'm then betting/raising/pushing/whatever the river unless the board is horrendous.

[schwza]

here's my line:

i bet the flop for 400. if he raises, i call and jam the turn. if he calls the flop, i'm going to keep betting every street cause villain likely has some outs, and even if he doesn't a Q/T might kill my action.

A couple of things:

1) The pot size is wrong. If you raise 275, everyone folds including the 50chip sb and the bb calls, you have a 275+50+275=600 chip pot, not 650.

2) In ref to: [ QUOTE ]
The argument for checking can, however, be made. You are either way ahead, with villain drawing to 2-4 outs (AQ, AJ, QQ, TT)

[/ QUOTE ]
QQ and TT each have 6 outs, but you have redraws to beat each.

That said, I'd bet this flop almost always as the preflop raiser no matter what, if I had 27o-AA, unless I had been getting away with lots of continuation bets and think this person wants to check-raise me, then I might check-through and do a delayed continuation bet if I had missed this flop.

If I don't bet the flop when I hit a monster, I can't be believed when I bet the flop when I don't have anything.

My first instinct is: I'm betting this a little weak, because I'm not too concerned with being outdrawn or way behind here and I'd like to induce a move...Into a 600 chip pot, I'd bet 350 or so. That would leave me with 2670-275-350=2045 chips, Opponent with 2290 if he calls, and a 1300 chip pot if he calls. Even though I'm not going to get off this hand, it looks like I still could, and if he tries to push me off with a lesser hand, I welcome it. Unfortunately, this might not move a stubborn pair of QQ/TT or a QJ/JT off the pot, each of which have 6 outs (but we have redraws against). Unfortunately, if he does have a 6 outer and I am committed to this no matter what comes on the turn/river, the size of our stacks does make this a good call on his part, so I'm thinking I might bet more like 400 or 450 now.

Depending on the bb, I'd put him on a wider range: People who think he can't have KQ/QJ/JT/T9 here are crazy. Heads up, even out of position, with really great pot odds, you can't just toss all of those every time someone raises from early position. I'd be MORE inclined to play a hand like T9s than I would a trap hand like KQ/KJ, because I don't go busted if I flop top pair with T9 very often, whereas top pair w/KQ/KJ, you are in rough shape if you get action. That said, depending on the bb, I'd put him on a range of any real hand (some people feel the need to trap with AA/KK here, some people feel the need to see the flop before committing with QQ/JJ). I think those big pair hands are less likely than AQ/AJ/88 type hands because of the possibility of a reraise. My range now is any real hand - unlikely but possible are AA-QQ, slightly more likely JJ, even more likely 22-TT; Also any 2 broadway including QT, and suited connectors from JT-76, possibly JTo/J9o/T9o.

Dennis

[AtticusFinch]

Villain called a raise with odds from the BB, for a small fraction of his stack. His range is very wide.

On this flop, a check-raise looks like a bad idea. With all those paints out there, he's either getting his money in or he isn't, and I don't want to give him free cards to hit his gutshot.

I bet 2/3 of the pot. If he raises, I call and shove any turn. If he calls, I lead for 2/3 again on any turn except a Q or T. I'm honestly not sure how to handle one of those on the turn, although the way this hand is looking, it probably will be. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[albedoa]

[ QUOTE ]
1) The pot size is wrong. If you raise 275, everyone folds including the 50chip sb and the bb calls, you have a 275+50+275=600 chip pot, not 650.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice catch.

[jccookjr]

My guess for villain is JJ or 10/10 and he's going to put Gig all in after his continuation bet. I don't think he would have re-raised with either of these two hands and he called hoping to hit his set.

[Cactus Jack]

Gee, I would be so much better off if I'd limped this hand instead of raising it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif He has to be putting me on at least a strong A or better up to AK. If he's coming along, he either is a donk or may have me beat. Sure wish I was playing my nicely disquised hand, but oh well.

I've got top 2 pair, I'm going to the felt with this one. I put in a half-pot bet. If he thinks this is weak, so what, I'm coming back at him. If he calls, getting his proper odds, here's the money. If he misses the turn, I'm throwing another bet at him. I want him all in, although that might end up being the bad news.

I just busted out on a stone-cold deck in an MTT. I've seen a lot of times when I never see a chance this good to get a big pot. I'm not worried about what he has--I'm either ahead or behind--I'm only worried about getting as many of his chips as I can get.

CJ

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
My guess for villain is JJ or 10/10 and he's going to put Gig all in after his continuation bet. I don't think he would have re-raised with either of these two hands and he called hoping to hit his set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, I think my Q-falling on the turn scenario is also a strong possibility. Maybe he has JJ and just calls on the flop, then a q falls. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises my bet, I have to figure he flopped a set or a straight and as much as it hurts, I've got to lay down. Check raising an UTG raiser shows balls or a strong hand. If he calls, I'm also going to worry he has a set or a straight and check it down from there unless I hit a full house on 4th street or the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak/tight alert.

[fnurt]

I am typically betting 250-300 here, to encourage action. A half-pot bet doesn't look nearly as suspicious as checking. If he has the typical hand with 2-4 outs, his chances are small enough that I don't feel compelled to charge him the max.

The thought of laying this hand down is silly. I didn't encourage action just so I could end up folding to it.

In a typical Party tournament, I don't even bother putting my opponent on a hand at this stage. I have seen more than one person defend their BB with 72o, flop a 2, and play it like the nuts, so I'm not going to fall into the trap of assuming he plays reasonably.

I respect the people who analyze the situation by saying "he needs a decent hand to call an UTG raise" or "he knows he's going to be out of position for the rest of the hand" but I think these kind of thoughts make the mistake of assuming the other guy plays like you. Against an unknown on Party, I think it's a mistake to assume they know or care that the raise is coming from EP.

[kuro]

It's hard to put BB on a range without some information about how he's played and how you've been playing. Ranges that people defend with are all over the place. So something like AQ,AK,AA-77, and then depending on how loose he is AJs,ATs,KQs,66-22 and premium suited connectors/1 gappers, and broadway hands depending on how loose he is.

I would bet 425 on the flop, because I want to charge villain to draw to a set,boat, or straight and to protect myself from folding the better hand if the turn is a scare card and villain bets it. I think the board is too scarry given the range of hands villain puts us on to expect for him to bluff the turn/river on a blank with any frequency if we check. By betting we likely fold out hands that aren't planning on putting more money into the pot unless they improve to a better hand than ours.

If villain check-raises the flop, I think you've got to lay it. If he calls your bet then you have to play poker on later streets.

[KneeCo]

Note: Being as this is the hand choosen for this cool series, one is tempted to make each move anticipating future streets and such. I have tried to avoid that, and the move I describe below is the one I would generally make if this situation actually came up in play (and I thought there was a chance we wouldn't get to the turn).

Yesterday I said raise to 300, hope to play a HU pot with one of the blinds for position and flop TPTK.

Well we have something similar here.

The BB could have any number of hands here, despite bad position, a lot of players will call here rather than give up their blind partially because they are thinking that if they get a good flop an EP raiser would have trouble letting go of what is probably a premium hand (I'm not saying this approach is wrong or right, it's just a consideration to be taken into account in narrowing the villain's range).

Accordingly, it is difficult to pin down the BB's range. He can be holding any pocket pair fives or up (maybe even 22s and up), KQ-KJ, AT+ and perhaps some suited connectors. In other words, I haven't the slightest what he has.

In times like that, I try to see if I can figure out what he doesn't have. Particularly, I wonder if there's a fair chance I'm behind (to a set or the straight). JJ is probably the only hand he can have that I'm behind right now, but there are a lot of hands I think he might have played that can draw out on me AJ, AQ, AT, KQ, QQ, TT, JTs. So, assuming I'm ahead, he probably has 6 outs or less. If I'm behind, I probably have 4. But I think I'm ahead.

Nevertheless, even though I think I have the lead, I think a check here is too risky. If a Q, J or T comes off on the turn and he bets out, I will have put myself in a tough spot. So I bet on the flop, about 600.

If he raises me, there's a good chance IMO he is doing so on a semi-bluff or with AK-AJ-AT, and I would probably re-raise all-in. If he flips over the nuts or a set, I hope to hit one of my outs to fill up. But with AK, I don't mind getting all the chips in the middle on this flop.

[DonT77]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet 2/3 of the pot. If he raises, I call and shove any turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why call and lead the turn instead of pushing over his raise ATF?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said. I'm ahead now, most aces held by an idiot call this anyway, all two pair hands get it in, at least 11 cards either kill the action or my hand...I'm playing this very strong all the way down until something convinces me not to.

edit: What villain has is not particularly important. On this flop, either he's going to give action or he's not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What villain has is very important to us if he check/raises or check/calls us here.

Checking it down after villain calls is really really horrible, IMHO. Incidentally, a smart villain rarely calls on this flop with any hand, and almost never calls and then checks the turn without a drawing hand.

[ QUOTE ]
My guess for villain is JJ or 10/10 and he's going to put Gig all in after his continuation bet. I don't think he would have re-raised with either of these two hands and he called hoping to hit his set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it his preflop call with odds or his flop check that made it impossible for villain to have 88?

[freehat]

Bet 450, if he raises just move-in there are alot of action killers on the turn, and i'm not folding anyway as half my stack would be in there. His range is so large and stacks are so shallow that I am going to the felt with this hand.

[MrMoo]

Villains range is really wide. I don't need to narrow it down yet. I WAY ahead of almost anything here.

I bet 350-400. I want to encourage villain to come along with a weaker hand.


If I'm raised I'm pushing back all in. Unless it's a smallish raise and I might let him take control of the hand so he leads the turn.

Plan going forward is to keep making 1/2 - 3/4 pot size bets which hopefully encourage him to call with a weak A or weaker 2 pair while not giving him odds to chase a 4 outer.

Bottom line. I'm willing to go broke on this hand if I'm behind. I assume I'm ahead here most times and I'm going to do everything I can to suck his entire stack a little at a time.

[johnnybeef]

I'm willing to go broke with this one. I'm really only concerned about him having two hands here. I fire about 350 here to give him the chance to check raise bluff at it in which case I push. That said if he calls and an under card comes, I'm pushing. If a ten or a jack comes, I will slow down.

[stokken]

This flopp is a future tournament life decider. Against a reasonable range one is a clear favourite. If I go out on this hand then I go with style. Ok what cards on turn are scary T an Q maybe, but we have then 8 outs to redraw nuts.
Any other hand which hasnt hit already is 2 outish hands or dead draws.
If u bet now, any hopless hand will fold-any reraise leaves a thougher decision( I`d probably call a reraise now if I elected to bet; I would bet the pot,I find that a nice bet on a A flopp, cause it looks like u want to discourage action)

I`d go with the math on this one
I check behind and considering my self either way ahead most of the time or way behind not so often, and willing to gamble it on any bet from caller. Alot of the time one will induce a bluff

[kuro]

The reason why I think that you have to strongly consider laying your hand if you're check raised is that villain knows that you have top two pair or a set here a very high percentage of the time and that you are not going to lay them. Villain has to be pretty bad/crazy aggressive to check-raise AJ/KJ on that board because it only gets called by hands that beat it and it lets hands like AQ/QQ/TT that probably aren't even betting draw to trips/straight for free. If villain has AK it's a split pot.


I personally have a really hard time laying AK here and in the heat of the moment I probably don't do it, but I think it's probably right if you're check-raised. People keep making statements like I can't fold with 1000 or 1/2 my stack there, well you've got 725 invested which is 27% of your stack and you've still got most of the table covered and a very workable stack if you fold and you're Gigabet whose got solid reads on everyone else at the table except aparently this guy.

[renodoc]

Nice flop.

Villian could have any two cards. He called from the BB with odds. If he just read Phil Gordon's book maybe he has 9To... BTW, If I am in the BB preflop with JJ I'm going to reraise the hero and I'm going to try to check-raise this flop all in.

I'm not checking behind here. I would bet about 400. Given this exercise and the stack sizes I am going to assume that the villian calls and we see the turn. (which is a scare card to the straight)

If, however, the villian raises then I likely push in order to put any remaining pressure back on him. If he goes in the tank then I am ahead. If he calls before my finger is off the mouse then I still have outs.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said. I'm ahead now, most aces held by an idiot call this anyway, all two pair hands get it in, at least 11 cards either kill the action or my hand...I'm playing this very strong all the way down until something convinces me not to.

edit: What villain has is not particularly important. On this flop, either he's going to give action or he's not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What villain has is very important to us if he check/raises or check/calls us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surprisingly, not really. We're still ahead of half the stuff he does either with. If the turn is not a brick, you can try to narrow it down from there, but if he wants the chips in on the flop, they're gonna go in. You cannot fold this hand based solely on those three cards.

PS: If he checkraises, I'm pushing (after pretending to think about it), since KJ and even AQ call anyway.

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If he raises my bet, I have to figure he flopped a set or a straight and as much as it hurts, I've got to lay down. Check raising an UTG raiser shows balls or a strong hand. If he calls, I'm also going to worry he has a set or a straight and check it down from there unless I hit a full house on 4th street or the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak/tight alert.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been reading these boards for a while and decided to participate to help myself become a better student of the game. I say student, because I know I'm usually not the best player in the tournament, but a respectable player nonetheless. And I know I'm not the best player posting on this board, but I have a degree in math, so I know the numbers, I continuously read books on the subject to pick up strategies, I study the pschological aspects of the game, and I'm playing 1500 hands per week (to gain experience) and not losing my ass, but not ready to quit my day job either.

With this attitude, I learn on a daily basis and continuously improve, and my results show this.

Your reply adds no value, says nothing, and starts pissing matches. Comments of intelligence and value are appreciated, your reply isn't unless you care to elaborate with some intelligent thought.

Please explain why it is weak tight so I can gain some insight.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
Please explain why it is weak tight so I can gain some insight.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not the OP, but laying down top two to any re-raise here independant a solid read is a weak/tight move here becauase of the likely hand range for your opponent and the strength of your hand. You are jumping at monsters in every shadow - too much of the time you're going to be ahead to lay this down without any thought to the first re-raise. For an ABC agressive player, re-raising a continuation bet on this flop with a piece and a draw is a very standard play, because it gets a lot of typical players to fold here who elected to cbet with a medium pocket pair or second pair or etc. In fact, quite often that's my line here from the BB with almost any hand if i've got a read on the PFR as weak/tight - I'm going to check, let them cbet, and then check-raise them here and quite often i'm taking down the pot.

If you're up against someone who would just call from the BB with AA or KK then you're going broke here and you really can't get away from it independant a read - unless perhaps your opponent smooth calls the flop bet and then later street play gives you strong enough reason to indicate you're beat, but even that isn't a scenario I expect to see.

We're most worried about QT here, with JJ second. I don't expect someone to just call with AA or KK from the BB, trying to slowplay a big pocket pair out of position against Gigabet is probably one of the worst situations I can imagine for the future of said pocket pair. But there's some chance the opponent doesn't know whom he's up against, so we can let that slide. But still: it comes down to the basics of assigning your opponent a hand range based upon their actions. Because they only called the PFR from the BB, you've got to assume they could be on a very very wide range because of the great odds they got preflop. Highest percentage of the time you're way ahead here, and the main objectives in your mind now need to be 1. extracting maximum value 2. making it unfavorable for a draw to get there because this is a coordinated board.

Most people so far are advocating a smaller-sized continuation bet, trying to induce a bluff check-raise from a holding of Ax and possibly even something like KQ, KT, JT, etc - there's just too wide a range of hands that an appropriately aggressive player will re-raise with here that we beat (and beat badly) based upon our line of a continuation bet representing a medium pocket pair or a good-but-not-great piece of the flop.

[CardSharpCook]

I've got no realistic range for the BB. In his shoes, I'd consider calling with 69s. This is a real Blah flop. I've got way too much of it, but he could easily have a 4 out draw. If he has QT, well, I don't have enough chips to get away from any amount of betting. I'm tossing a 2/3 pot bet out there - 400 chips. If he calls, great, if he folds, no worries. Q or T turn, I'm gonna check behind and call any river bet (and bet if checked to on the river). If he bets into me on a non-Q or T turn, I'm pushing. If he bets into me on a Q or T turn... hell I'm probably doing the same. The bluff possibility combined with my short stack combined with the possibility that he is protecting a weaker ace makes it a call.

[curtains]

Funny I basiclaly had this exact hand/flop yesterday. My opponent had QT, so I'd check hoping to fill up and fold to any large bet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

In reality I'd bet about 400. I'd bet whatever amount that I felt there was some chance they might try to take the pot away from me. Also I want to make sure that my bet size doesn't scare them off a hand like AT or Ax/KQ. I think 400 could accomplish the above against many online opponents.

I'm ahead of pretty much everything Bar a pocket pair of Aces/Kings or Jacks.

I min-bet 200, small continuation shows weakness, it will give them hope, if he comes over the top I'm all in.

If he calls and a rag turns and checks to me on the turn, ill take the free-card, i think hes upto something, so ill see if he has any strength on the final bet.

If he bets on turn, I am worried but i still call.
If he then raises me all-in, I'll think about it based on the size of his bet on turn, and what has hit the table.

I put the villian on Axs KQ-K9o, QJ/JT/T9.

If he has QT, hes going to let us do the bidding seemingly, same with JJ.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

What do you do if he raises you? Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he raises my bet, I have to figure he flopped a set or a straight and as much as it hurts, I've got to lay down. Check raising an UTG raiser shows balls or a strong hand. If he calls, I'm also going to worry he has a set or a straight and check it down from there unless I hit a full house on 4th street or the river.

[/ QUOTE ]


WHOA WHOA WHOA WHOA WHOA I was liking your post until this little gem... He has called your bet preflop and check-raises an AKJ flop so you lay down your AK? WHA? He has shown absolutely 0 indication that he can actually beat your hand. You beat KJ, AJ, every ace, KT, KQ, QJ, JT, TT, etc. all of which might think they have the best hand and best draw. There is just about no chance in hell that I'm folding this on the flop. If he beats me, he beats me, but this sort of thinking needs to come out of your head. One raise does not make the BB's hand a monster.

FWIW, I bet 450 and push over a check-raise. I've already given a good chunk of his hand range.

[curtains]

2005, don't worry, no one in online poker history has actually folded AK here, it's just fun to pretend you would while posting on 2+2.

[Mr_Oog]

Didn't read the replies yet.

I bet 250.

My thought is that if villain is going to play, I expect him to check-raise me, so lets keep the bet small. I am actually concerned about this flop because a very large percentage of the hands that would call my raise have a queen in them. Therefore I need to price out the probable gutshot, hopefully looking weak enough that he will check-raise me. I will then push as I consider a set or QT unlikey at this point and he would make a mistake by calling.

-Mike

[Exitonly]

)pre reading responses)

I think it's a bit early to be putting him on a range... he could have a ton of hands, we'll be able to put him on a smaller more realistic range after his action here.

I think i bet out like 300-350 here, a bit on the samll side but i'd like to get him to come over the top. If he does and it's enough to put me all in, obviously call... if it's not quite enough, he'll be commited to the rest of my stack probably so i'd push.

[ QUOTE ]

2005, don't worry, no one in online poker history has actually folded AK here, it's just fun to pretend you would while posting on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks to all those who are pointing out (and explaining why) that it may be weak/tight. It really is giving me a lot more to think about in how I respond to such a situation. I did lay down AKo with AKT of spades on the flop with a 4th spade on 4th street, but that is the only time I can remember I was faced with a similar situation in actual play. My opponent pushed and I didn't have a spade and thought my 2 pair was second best.

My work performace is going to suffer now that I'm actively posting on these boards. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Exitonly]

having 4 spades on the board is different than a rainbow flop, by a longshot.

[Sluss]

Have not read any replies.

I'm firing a continuation bet of about 325 here. Same bet I would make with nothing. At this point I would have a pretty large range for Villain 22-JJ, 67s, 78s, 89s, 910s, J10s, Q10, K10, KJ, KQ, AK-9.

If he calls it narrows to Q10, J10, 1010, JJ, AQ, AK, AJ, KJ, KQ. A re-raise would narrow it to more drawish type hands: AQ, KQ, J10 also a trappy KJ, AJ, AK. I don't think we get CR here with a hand that has us killed (Q10, AA, KK, JJ)

If I'm beat here I am probably going broke. I'm pushing over a re-raise. If villain calls and leads out for 500 or less I might just call the turn and try to get this to showdown. The money is probably going in here if villain is willing.

[ZeroPointMachine]

Okay no peeking at responses this time.

Villain’s range 22+,78s+,JQo+

Villain has at least a pair and a draw or nothing he can call a bet with.
I would bet 650-700 on this flop. I think the over bet causes the most confusion for Villain. He could easily interpret this as QQ,AQ,KQ,99 or TT trying to force him out of the pot. It also creates a big enough pot that if villain thinks his hand is good but not the nuts(or he thinks he can push me off my hand) he should move all-in and try to take the pot now. If he pushes I auto-call. I think the over bet is the best way to get action on this hand. If he calls he’s made a mistake unless he has QT.

[rockythecat99]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay no peeking at responses this time.

Villain’s range 22+,78s+,JQo+

Villain has at least a pair and a draw or nothing he can call a bet with.
I would bet 650-700 on this flop. I think the over bet causes the most confusion for Villain. He could easily interpret this as QQ,AQ,KQ,99 or TT trying to force him out of the pot. It also creates a big enough pot that if villain thinks his hand is good but not the nuts(or he thinks he can push me off my hand) he should move all-in and try to take the pot now. If he pushes I auto-call. I think the over bet is the best way to get action on this hand. If he calls he’s made a mistake unless he has QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is not going to call this overbet unless he has at least two pair maybe he calls with KQ.

[Jason Strasser]

Yawn.... bet what you usually bet when you raise preflop.

-Jason

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay no peeking at responses this time.

Villain’s range 22+,78s+,JQo+

Villain has at least a pair and a draw or nothing he can call a bet with.
I would bet 650-700 on this flop. I think the over bet causes the most confusion for Villain. He could easily interpret this as QQ,AQ,KQ,99 or TT trying to force him out of the pot. It also creates a big enough pot that if villain thinks his hand is good but not the nuts(or he thinks he can push me off my hand) he should move all-in and try to take the pot now. If he pushes I auto-call. I think the over bet is the best way to get action on this hand. If he calls he’s made a mistake unless he has QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is not going to call this overbet unless he has at least two pair maybe he calls with KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think he calls a smaller bet with less???

I think the overbet is the only way to get the hands you crush to put enough chips in to make up for the times your beat here. Because we're never getting away from this hand cheaply.

[ QUOTE ]
If villain check-raises the flop, I think you've got to lay it.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

If he checkraises me here I do a little happy dance - then call hoping to eventually get all my chips in on the turn or river.

His range is not a concern to me as I am either way ahead or have outs to win/tie if behind. If it turns sour then so be it. I'm not folding this hand at this point under these circumstances.

I bet half the pot (300) to appear weak and attempt to elicit a raise from villian.

range of hands - 88-QQ
Any AXs
KQ
KJ

check and call/bet the turn regardless of the card

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain clearly has outs; I don't give him odds. The pot is a good % of my stack now, and I'd like to take it right now or to stack villain without having to see a scarecard first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, what he said. I'm ahead now, most aces held by an idiot call this anyway, all two pair hands get it in, at least 11 cards either kill the action or my hand...I'm playing this very strong all the way down until something convinces me not to.

edit: What villain has is not particularly important. On this flop, either he's going to give action or he's not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What villain has is very important to us if he check/raises or check/calls us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surprisingly, not really. We're still ahead of half the stuff he does either with. If the turn is not a brick, you can try to narrow it down from there, but if he wants the chips in on the flop, they're gonna go in. You cannot fold this hand based solely on those three cards.

PS: If he checkraises, I'm pushing (after pretending to think about it), since KJ and even AQ call anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about not getting it in on the flop. I think the fact that his cards won't be clarified much by his actions is a good reason to play aggressively on the flop, but I think we should at least consider narrowing the range because maybe there's a line that's better after a call or raise than just pushing at the next opportunity. Keep in mind that we have position, so checking behind on a T or Q turn is a posibility.

Btw, I respect basically all of your advice on these forums.

[Ryendal]

HMmmm, I bet 450 here, and go all-in if he raises.

The worse thing I can imagine is a call, and a T or Q at turn...
I still don't know if I would reraise all-in a raise at the turn or if I should call in the hope to get a stack>=1200 after a second call at the river in the case I am smatched.

[hurlyburly]

He's getting near 2/1 on the call, so any two above average cards are possible.

I bet. I'm worried about 4 hands, 3 of which I think would have raised me PF. I like to get cute here and bet 395, leaving exactly 2k behind. I'd have to know an awful lot about the BB to lay this down if I'm raised.

If he calls, then checks a non-queen, jack or ten turn, I'm 50/50 to either raise 800 or check behind. If I bet and get called, and he doesn't bet out on the river, I'll push since it's the only reasonable value bet I have. If I check behind on the turn, and no jack, ten or queen comes, I'll push if he bets or bet 800 if he checks (kicking myself for not betting the turn).

[mlagoo]

I've got to assume this is gonna get more interesting on later streets.....

Anyway, I put my opponent on something like A8s+, ATo+, KTs+, K9o+, QJs, QTo+, SCs 54+, 78o+, 22+. I don't necessarily exclude AA or KK for his range -- but there are far less likely, for obvious reasons.

I'd bet 1/2 pot, 300, and I'd probably call any C/R that isn't a push in order to give him another opportunity to bluff into me on the turn. I'd obviously call a C/R push.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
You think he calls a smaller bet with less???

[/ QUOTE ]
No. I (and from reading responses, a lot of others, not that consensus necessarily makes us correct) think that a smaller continuation-bordering-on-probe-bet might induce a bluff (or semi-bluff) check-raise here. I'm not looking to get him to call a bet here, I'm looking to get as much of his money in the middle as possible right now.

However, I will say one line I don't think i've seen mentioned yet would be the "emulate a donk" and dramatically overbet the flop (i.e. push it) aka the Lorinda move as its known in the STT forum. I certainly don't think its the best line here at this level (and especially if people know that I'm gigabet here), but thats becoming a nice piece of my toolchest in STT scenarios just like this (where the push is seen as a donk overbet bluff and gets called by a very wide range of hands).

[renodoc]

Why not just push?

If we are going to call a raise anyway? If villian is a party poker donkey and will call when beat then we get all the chips in the middle now. If he has us beat so be it. If he is on a draw, then we have the best chance to take the pot down now and be done with it.

Of course, since there are two more streets to go this can't be the right answer....

[tipperdog]

I bet around T400. I can't put villain on any hand at this point. I doubt a set b/c he failed to reraise. QT is a nightmare, but possible. However, so are about 25 other hands including AJ and KJ, in which case I'm winning a big pot here.

If reraised I call and await the next card. I go broke here if I'm beat and no scary card hits the turn.

[DireWolf]

[ QUOTE ]
Yawn.... bet what you usually bet when you raise preflop.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed

I make my standard continuation bet here, its a rainbow flop so I half-pot it most likely. I dont think there is a need to make it more than half the pot here, either. Since we don't have a read on the table, have to assume they don't have a read on us, so we can't go by the "thats what I've been doing in previous rounds". Explain to me the merit of betting 2/3 over 1/2 here on this rainbow flop. We crush villain's range, and want to induce action, if he is behind we aren't giving proper odds either way, and if he is behind he may stick around for the cheaper price, or be more likely to play back at us if he likes challenging continuation bets and/or takes our 1/2 pot bet as weak for some reason, which happens to me a lot more often than it does against my 2/3 bets.

I don't like betting more than 1/2 in this spot with no read on table and not going off of previous rounds, and also, as stated, checking here is very bad as we do have villain's range destroyed at the moment and likely have the best hand right now, but 11 cards can come on the turn that can be scary to us and the villain, and we can either be missing on chips we would have gotten out of a dominated villain on the flop, or potentially letting him catch one of his outs for free.

I bet 1/2 pot, if raised here, I push. If called, I see the turn and his action, and go from there.

Oh and, folding to a c/r is incredibly weak, and the reasons for that were already explained.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just push?

If we are going to call a raise anyway? If villian is a party poker donkey and will call when beat then we get all the chips in the middle now. If he has us beat so be it. If he is on a draw, then we have the best chance to take the pot down now and be done with it.

Of course, since there are two more streets to go this can't be the right answer....

[/ QUOTE ]


ell just because Gigabet didnt do it in the real hand doesnt mean it isnt the right answer ...

but just because we're going to call his raise, why would we push? that would just make him fold more often, and we want his money in the pot on this hand.

--

And for the people that are talking about folding, there is absolutely no way i'm folding this hand. (Well, on this street, but probably the whole hand)

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think he calls a smaller bet with less???

[/ QUOTE ]
No. I (and from reading responses, a lot of others, not that consensus necessarily makes us correct) think that a smaller continuation-bordering-on-probe-bet might induce a bluff (or semi-bluff) check-raise here. I'm not looking to get him to call a bet here, I'm looking to get as much of his money in the middle as possible right now.

However, I will say one line I don't think i've seen mentioned yet would be the "emulate a donk" and dramatically overbet the flop (i.e. push it) aka the Lorinda move as its known in the STT forum. I certainly don't think its the best line here at this level (and especially if people know that I'm gigabet here), but thats becoming a nice piece of my toolchest in STT scenarios just like this (where the push is seen as a donk overbet bluff and gets called by a very wide range of hands).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Villain expects a continuation/probe bet here almost 100% of the time. If he is going to call a c-bet he will at least call a bigger bet. I still think the bigger bet is more likely to confuse villain and be perceived as possible weakness. A weak bet here is the obvious play with most of the hands he puts you on. I think that little bit of pressure from the larger bet is more likely to get a bluff/semi-bluff re-raise than the expected c-bet. I think it's really unlikely that villain folds a hand to a pot size bet that he calls a 1/2 pot bet with. If he is going to check-fold the turn I want those chips now.

[sdplayerb]

I bet 400 at it.
I'm not giving him a free shot at a straight or set if he has an underpair, both of which he is done with this hand.
If i bet, he may think I don't have as good a hand as I have.
He could be trying to check raise with AQ or AT.

If he raises, I am pushing allin, if he has JJ, so be it.

I am definitely going all the way with this hand. A T or Q would be a little scary, but I am pot committed and can't be certain that gives him the nuts.

[betgo]

Q, J, or T. Got to make things interesting.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot size is wrong. If you raise 275, everyone folds including the 50chip sb and the bb calls, you have a 275+50+275=600 chip pot, not 650.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are correct and it's been edited to reflect 600. I don't think it will make a huge difference in people's responses. Thanks for pointing it out.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
Yawn.... bet what you usually bet when you raise preflop.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]
I tend to agree with you that the initial decision is not all that interesting. What is interesting is your plan for the rest of the hand if he check-raises or calls you.

For the record, the advantage of a 2/3 pot bet is obvious: it gets more money in the pot when called/raised and our hand is good.

However, I like your analysis, and am now leaning towards a 300 bet. Why don't we make it 350 and call it even /images/graemlins/smile.gif?

[renodoc]

[ QUOTE ]
but just because we're going to call his raise, why would we push? that would just make him fold more often, and we want his money in the pot on this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I find this part very interesting. Now, I'm not really advocating pushing here, I just threw it out there for discussion.

However, I would have been very happy to take down the blinds with my raise. I would be very happy to take down this pot now with my top two, although I certainly see the logic in continuing the hand. The entire "Fundamental Theorem of Poker" breaks down for me in tournaments sometimes. Sure, I want my money in the pot with the best of it, but i can still lose to the draw and be out of the tournament.

If my opponents never call me, I can never lose...

[A_PLUS]

600 in the pot. Top 2 pair, rainbow board.

The only hands we are behind now are QT and JJ. I will be ignoring AA and KK, b/c they are so unlikely.

BB has a very wide range here. He was getting great odds to call. I would expect,PP AX, KX (usually >6), QXs, unsuited connectors, J9, T8,SCs, and lots of suited 1-2 gappers, etc, etc.

Regardless, from what we know now, our main concern is getting paid off. This isnt a board that many hands are paying us off on, when they completely miss, b/c our range makes it virtually impossible that we are unpaired here.

Checking behind shouldn't fool anyone. The only way we make more money in that case, is if the turn is X, which gives him a smaller 2p.

I am going to bet 250-350, depending on how I played my last few hands. I would be doing this with 100% of my range in this spot.

If I am check raised, I am going to call no matter what. If he min-raises, I still just call, just in case it is a wierd post-oak CR-bluff, b/c I am not afraid of any draws here, so let him bluff again.

That being said, I think a CR most likely means, JJ, AJ, T9, AK, AT, in descending order.

My hope for the hand, is that he has AQ-AT, KQ, JT and is willing to stick around for this and another modest turn bet.

I throw up in my mouth if a Q or T hit the turn, but I dont feel too bad. Any completed straight, will probably go for a CR, and I will be checking behind, calling the river anyway.

General plan: Hope he is willing to call a continuation/probe looking bet. Reavaluate on the turn. Call any CR.

about my range
I think all of the hands, I mentioned are possible (no reads), I obviously think PP, KT+, QT+, JT, AX are most likely

I probably raise to 450. I would put the BB on any JJ-22, aq-a10, suited connectors, royal suited cards. Since I think he would be looking to check raise with aq, a10, aj, kq, kj, and qj, I would not hesitate going all in here if he raised. If he has q10 or jj, so be it.

[Guelph]

Wouldn't the pot be 600 on the flop? (50 + 100 + 275 + 175)

<font color="red">What range of hands do you put the villain on? </font>

Calling 175 from the BB, I think any pair, any broadway, any suited ace-8 or better, any suited connector down to 98. But then again I tend to be loose from the BB.

<font color="red">Do you check or bet? </font>

I bet weak. I want him to think I have a small/medium pair that's trying to steal, but afraid of a reraise.

<font color="red">If you bet, how much and why that amount? </font>

100-150. Make it look like I'm taking one last cheap stab at the pot.

<font color="red">What do you do if he raises you? </font>

All-in? Call. (I'm about 78% to win against the range I gave) Not all-in? Re-raise all-in.

<font color="red">Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why? </font>

I think I want to get all my chips in this pot. The hard part is getting them there. I check behind on the turn and overbet the river unless a Q or T hits between now and then, in which case I probably go broke on his straight.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with you that the initial decision is not all that interesting. What is interesting is your plan for the rest of the hand if he check-raises or calls you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think these are interesting in this context without a helluva lot more information about the player, unless some lengthy reads I missed were mentioned in part 1. The stacks aren't deep enough to get away from this hand on this street otherwise. Getting called and sweating another broadway card can be complicated, but then I think you just induce a bluff and get your chips in anyway. This doesn't seem like a very complicated hand to me.

[ QUOTE ]


However, I would have been very happy to take down the blinds with my raise. I would be very happy to take down this pot now with my top two, although I certainly see the logic in continuing the hand. The entire "Fundamental Theorem of Poker" breaks down for me in tournaments sometimes. Sure, I want my money in the pot with the best of it, but i can still lose to the draw and be out of the tournament.

If my opponents never call me, I can never lose...

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right that the fundamental theorem of poker doesn't apply because FE is more important in tournies. However, we're not talking about a small edge here--in fact, in the early stages, there are few edges that are small enough to warrant this logic. If he's got TJ or something, he's a big dog, and we want our money in with him.

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
Explain to me the merit of betting 2/3 over 1/2 here on this rainbow flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually advocate a full pot bet but the reasoning is the same.

We raised UTG. This flop almost can't have missed us. Villian fully expects a bet from us. I see very few hands that he will call 1/2 pot with that he will not call a bigger bet with.

My intuitive estimate goes something like this:

If villian will call 1/2 pot with range X, 2/3 with range (80%)X and full pot with range (75%)X you get:

1/2 pot:X * 325 = 325
2/3 pot:(.8X * 425) - (.2 * 325) = 275
full pot:(.75X * 650) - (.2X * 325) - (.05X * 425) = 402

Hmmm... 2/3 actually comes out worse than 1/2 pot but full pot is better than both(given my best guesstimates) .

There are many times this is the only bet you are going to get out of villian. It's not a risk/reward issue because we are more or less committed to the hand. Why not get more chips now? I don't think a 1/2 pot bet is any more likely to induce a bluff than a bigger bet. I actually think the bigger bet is more likely to be raised but that may be based on assumptions of previous play and that this bet would confuse/tempt villain.

Anybody got a better estimate for Villian's range and how often he will call each size bet?

Is this line of analysis practical or useful?

[SossMan]

villians hand is obviously still very wide. He's likely checking that flop 100% of the time, so the range becomes, what would he call w/ preflop. With no reads and an seemingly aggressive player, putting the BB on a range other than "any plausable playable hand" is an excersize in futility.

Pot is 600, I bet the same amount that I would bet if I had 99 on that flop.

t400 to go.

If there were a flush draw on the flop, I might go ahead and pot it.

Making it t400 will make the turn pot t1400 if he flat calls and the hero's stack will be t2k. He will be able to bet 1k on the turn and get the remainder in on the river. Seems like a good payment plan for someone who has Ax or KJ or KQ or AQ or AT.

This hand has yet to get interesting. I'll assume that there is a bet and a call and a ten on the turn.

[Jason Strasser]

I mean

You have top 2 pair and &lt;30bb.

If he CR you... you get it in. You cant fold. If he calls then you figure out how to get more money in and make that decision when you see the turn....

....

-Jason

Well, your math is completely based on your guess as to how often each bet size will be called, and so its only accurate if your guess is accurate, and there is no way of knowing that, so I'm not sure how this analysis helps.

However, I feel that I get played back at more often with the half pot bet here than the 2/3 pot bet vs unknown villain if villain caught a small piece of the flop, and although I like the reasoning that against a strong villain, a bigger bet may look weaker and may actually be more likely to be played back at, once again we do not have a read on the villain and that is just a guess.

I feel that if we are ahead (and we crush his range as stated), we are making villain make a mistake with both bet sizes, but I also think we are making villain commit that mistake or potentially an even bigger mistake more often with the 1/2 pot bet, and the value we possibly lose by not getting called or potentially inducing a bigger error vs the extra chips we gain from an increased flop bet if called is what it comes down to, and that is a guessing game without some kind of spectacular read on villain (We don't know how often he folds to the bigger bet, where he would call or play back at the smaller bet, or the other way around). Any bet from 1/2 pot - 2/3 pot in this spot is going to be similar in nature and usually in results, but I think I get players to make more, and sometimes bigger, mistakes betting 1/2 pot here.

[m1illion]

Villans range is any two cards at this point. Ok Any two suited, any connectors and up.
I'm checking this flop only because I am heads up and if the BB missed any bet is most likely to cause a fold.
By the same token I intend to bet and/or raise any turn card. I have to deny any straight or flush possibilities the turn brings. Likewise if he reraises my turn bet it will help define my place.

[DyessMan89]

Havent checked the replies, but Im potting this. Given table image, my hand strength, and the fact that there are some potential scare cards (11) out there. Not to mention I might get a loose call from someone who thinks Im trying to take the pot away.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">What do you do if he raises you? </font>

All-in? Call. (I'm about 78% to win against the range I gave) Not all-in? Re-raise all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree with getting all your money in here, but there is a logical flaw I wanted to point out. Even if the range you put him on when he calls preflop is 100% accurate, that is not the same as the range that he check-raises with. Obviously, the hands that have a solid piece of the flop are more likely to check-raise than those that whiff.

So if you wanted to go about it this way, the check-raise gives you new information, and you have to reassess his range of hands based on that information.

[KingDan]

I bet whatever I normally bet after I raise pf, around 400 here.

I never check this... what cards will get us more action on the turn ((that we want) that won't pay us on the flop?

If CRed I call and lead turn or just push.

[Guelph]

Good point. However i'm only behind AA, KK, JJ, and QT.

I would feel confident that AA/KK/JJ are all re-raising PF, leaving only QT to worry about.

Does QT c/r here? Or does he have a read on me that says I'll keep firing on the turn and river?

Other hands I see C/R here include AJ or KJ thinking he's trapped me, KQ or QJ hoping to push me off a weak suited ace.

[McMelchior]

The modest PF raise "only" mandated the BB to call for 6% of his stack; because of that I'm willing to put him on any hand it makes sense to see a flop with - by far not necessarily a strong hand.

This includes:
AA thru 22
Axs
AKo thru A9o
any suited connector down to 87s
any connector down to T9
any suited one-gapper down to T8s
any one-gapper down to J9.
KTs

I hold it unlikely he has AA thru QQ and AK, expecting a PF re-raise here, but I have to at least consider the (vague) possibility he could be slow-playing one of these hands.

This leaves putting him on a range close to 20% of all possible holdings.

The flop is very safe for me - the only likely holding of villain's that puts me in jeopardy is JJ and QT - but the lack of possible draws makes it tricky to extract money from villain.

At the same time I'm hesitant to let him see the turn for free, since 8 cards (the Qs and the Ts) out of the remaining 47 cards are bound to make me sweat, should he come alive there.

So I am betting. My standard continuation bet of half the pot (300) is a possibility, but if villain has no part of the flop he'll have to fold, and that's not what I'm interested in.

On the other hand, a min-bet of 100 could easily be perceived as a trap, and min bets stink anyway.

So I bet 200, allowing the pot to offer him 4:1, and hoping to entice him to stay in with hands including Aces and Kings.

I'm absolutely thrilled if he check-raises me. I take a check raise to mean a range from AJ, KJ, KQ, QJ, to possibly Ax (testing my conviction), in addition to the only two hands I'm behind: QT and JJ.

Even in worst case I still have 4 outs twice. If I'm check-raised I'm pushing, believing I'll find myself ahead most of the time and with plenty odds.

If he flat calls and the turn is neither Q nor T, I'm raising if he bets into me (refusing to believe QT or JJ not to mention a turned set - and putting him on a bluff), and I'm probably checking after if he checks.

I'll still have the option of getting away from the river if a Q or T falls (and the going gets rough, and my gut-feeling is that I'm beat, which is far from certain), having invested less than 20% of my stack.

If any other card falls on the river and I'm bet into, I'm planning on pushing (since a pot sized raise obviously - also for villain - will pot-commit me, and a min-raise still stinks).

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Everyone seems to be assuming that AA and KK are very unlikely here because he would have reraised preflop. I'm not so sure. His call ended the betting and so he knew the pot would be heads up. Thus there is no question of him raising to thin the field. While some people would still value bet preflop with such powerhouse hands, an equally viable strategy here is to look at the flop, with the ideal number of people and a totally disguised hand.

By the way I'm not saying we should fear him having one of these hands because you can't assume you're up against a monster everytime someone calls your preflop raise. If he raises our bet on the flop (I originally said check it but I have been convinced that this would be too easy to see through) we are looking to get a substantial amount of our chips in there, probably all of them if his raise is anything more than a minraise.

[Exitonly]

no, AA and KK aren't likely because there are only two of each left in the deck.


Also, he probably woudl have raised.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
no, AA and KK aren't likely because there are only two of each left in the deck.


Also, he probably woudl have raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
Heads up just calling isn't horrible, especially with AA.

[Exitonly]

didnt say it would be bad... just said i think mostlikely those hands raise.

[grandgnu]

Villian has us covered slightly, but our stack could certainly cause him some trouble if he lost an all-in to us.

We have flopped top two pair and we're in great shape. If villian holds A/Q we only have to worry about the four 10's in the deck. There are no flush draws present. If Villian is defending with A/10, we have to worry about four Queens.

I don't believe Villian is smooth-calling our raise out of position with K/K or A/A. Villian could have J/J and he's hoping we have an Ace and he plans to check-raise us.

In this spot, I don't think a bet gains us anything. If we're ahead, we're likely way ahead and our opponent is drawing to somewhere between 2-4 outs (provided he's got an Ace with a Queen or 10 and thus has straight possibilities). If he has a smaller pocket pair he's got outs to a set.

If opponent has a set already, we're behind, and a bet from us is going to be re-raised and then we'll likely get all our money in with the worst hand. I don't mind a check here, let him try to take a stab at us on the turn.

[ZeeJustin]

I bet 350 or 400. Villian has a wide range of hands, and giving a free card could really suck. If he raises, I'm pushing all-in.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the villain on?


[/ QUOTE ]

You can't really nail too much down here. 55+, T9s+, QTs+, KTs+, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ ... QT? That's about it. Either really missed it or really hit it. If his AQ really hit it, then this slow play is not working too well.

[ QUOTE ]

Do you check or bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see any sense in checking. Sure you could 'slowplay', but this hand is too vulnerable to check. Plus, you'll be likely to figure out what villian is doing, much quicker. And if you check, he'll likely lead most turns, in which case, you're screwed (as far as info goes).

[ QUOTE ]

If you bet, how much and why that amount?


[/ QUOTE ]

2/3 pot. For value+info.

[ QUOTE ]

What do you do if he raises you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Depends how much. Likely just call.

[ QUOTE ]

Based on whether you check or bet (and presuming if you bet he calls), what's your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably getting my money in unless a Q or T comes. It's hard to lay down top 2 against an unknow with this board. The chances he has AA/KK/JJ/QT are somewhat low for me as I bet this hand right now. I'll reevaluate things when he reacts to my bet.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no, AA and KK aren't likely because there are only two of each left in the deck.


Also, he probably woudl have raised.

[/ QUOTE ]
Heads up just calling isn't horrible, especially with AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Although AA is unlikely, it would be a real nice spot to just call with AA. Hero has already given info. No need for AA to give Hero info.