2 Outs enough for this flop call? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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10-12-2005, 12:16 PM

This hand really disgusted me, as i would certainly criticise any player that played this way, and label them a fish. But in game i really did think about it.

2 fairly clear outs mean i need a pot of about ~12BB (pushed up due to the chance of a raise behind me). With the A on the board i really think i get this here?

No individual reads, as i was 4tabling with no PT =( , but the table was fairly loose in general.

Oh yeah and without the 5d there is obviously no way i woulda made this play.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (17.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero 3-bets, MP2 caps, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB

milesdyson

10-12-2005, 12:24 PM

2nd call fine, 1st call bad. the 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is pretty worthless here.

MrWookie47

10-12-2005, 12:26 PM

This is a fold on the flop. You underestimated the effect of a raise behind you. You were getting 12.5:1 on the call the first time, meaning you'd have to make up 10 SB in implied odds. If it's raised, then you need not just 22.5:1, but 45:2. You're hoping for a final pot of 22.5 BB if you were to know it was going to be raised - much larger than the 12 BB you had planned on, which, BTW, is just one BB over the minimum final pot size you'd need if you were just calling one bet. It looks like it panned out for you, but this is a fold.

deception5

10-12-2005, 01:08 PM

Easy fold on the flop. I wouldn't even consider the flush possibility as helpful - the fact that there are only 10 diamonds left in the deck does not significantly change the odds of someone making a flush and your one card flush is going to win the pot about as often as your pair of 5's unimproved.

The problem is that even if you catch your 5, there's a 20% chance that a flush possibility comes out and you will often lose a pile of money when that happens. Your 5 also gives a gutshot to a 3/4 which are both possibile holdings against loose players.

There's also a reasonable chance that the flop will be raised by anyone holding a flush draw or an ace costing you multiple bets to get to the turn.

Finally, you have a lot of money to make up if you actually do hit your set. So even if you are able to recover 10+SB you are just breaking even in the longterm. You need to make more to actually show a profit. The risk just doesn't seem to be worth the reward here.

10-12-2005, 02:56 PM

Couple things. 1) How does the 5 diamonds help you here? An extremely puny percentage of the time, you will win a hand like this with runner, runner flush and have it hold up. I'll liberally say 2% of the time. 2) How does an A on the board make it more favorable to call? You are most probably miles behind in this hand. If your two outs are good then you need 22.5 to 1 call this and that is assuming no reraises behind you. On the flop you are getting 11.5 to 1 and MP2 and MP3 haven't acted yet. Even if you are closing the betting it must be a clear fold.

10-12-2005, 04:19 PM

ok everyone seems to have misinterpreted my 5d comment, so ill explain:

im not suggesting that im GOING for a flush, but rather that there is a chance that someone else is.

if i had, say 5c5h in my hand, and the 5d came down on the turn, it would be nowhere near as powerful a hand due to the flush possibility, and it would open me up to all kinds of backdoor redraws on the flush in the times i was ahead.

also, wouldnt it be correct for analysing the possibility of a flop raise behind me with 2 players to go in terms of percentages for implied odds? (seriously im asking here)

eg. in a hypothetical situation:

you are getting current odds of 3-1 on a call

you need implied odds of 10-1 to make your call +ev based on your ~ outs

but, you feel there is a 20% chance one of the remaining players will raise?

thus, your implied odds needed are instead:

10:1.2
or 12:1

(Please comment on ^ that bit not the rest)

here i consider the possibility of a raise to be 10%-15%, thus

about 12.5-1?

minus .5 for the times i double gutshot, or get a free river and spike the 5 for 12-1?

is 12-1 anywhere near it?

10-12-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2) How does an A on the board make it more favorable to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds are increased due to preflop action indicating more people have hit that Ace (at least two) decent kicker and will be pumping the pot.

Would you rather hold 88 on a flop of A83 or T84? Same thing

I should point out as well that this is possibly the first time since my real fish days that i have ever played a pp like this, and yeah i know i got lucky.

POKhER

10-12-2005, 05:06 PM

fold the flop.
you suck out goooooot