Super Tuesday Hand - JJ against chip leader with 15 left

[Lloyd]

Here's what I think was a very interesting and tough hand from last night's Super Tuesday. There are 15 people left. I am probably seen as playing tightly. Most of my pre-flop raises have been uncalled. There was one hand where I raised UTG and the villain in this hand (the chip leader by almost 2x) re-raised me from the SB all-in (a fairly big overbet) with 99. On the last hand I pushed from MP with 77 and doubled up against AJ. The villain has been getting incredibly lucky. He's very aggressive and definitely using his stack to his advantage. However, I don't think he has absolute trash when raising in this hand.

Blinds 2000/4000
7-handed

Villain: t196340
Hero: t50882 (average is probably 75,000 but I'm right there with 5 or 6 other similar stacks)
Others: Have me covered although only 1 has 28k more than me

Hero is dealt J/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif

Villain is UTG and raises to t9000. Hero calls t9000. Folded around.

Pot: t24,000

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Villain checks. Action is on hero.

What range of hands do you put him on? Check or bet (and, if so, how much) and why?

[Tyler Durden]

what position were you each in

[adanthar]

I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

Push. I can't imagine folding here, and you've got too many chips to make a tricky call/call play here (plus, you invite the blinds in, which is a disaster).

Is there something that I'm missing? Is villain's raise not his typical amount? Positions?

[Lloyd]

Sorry. Edited to reflect he was UTG, I was next, and the table was 7-handed.

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry. Edited to reflect he was UTG, I was next, and the table was 7-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would change my opinion with a lesser hand, but with this stack and JJ against a player who sounds unaware of his position, I can't see much of an argument for a fold. I think calling is a disaster given your hand and the price the blinds'll be getting.

[Lloyd]

FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[Simplistic]

I'm pushing here without taking a minute to look back.

raise size is funny and he is UTG. but barring that, he's come over the top with 99, and he could be positionally clueless.

only thing I don't like is the size of his raise.

[Sam T.]

I assume that there is an arugment to be made against pushing, but I can't figure out what it is.

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call, there's now 24k in the pot and BB has 5k to call, closing the action. Also, nobody reraises behind you here with AK after you call?

What am I missing here?

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
only thing I don't like is the size of his raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but with the blinds this high, I'm not going to get too excited about it. At this point anything more than a min-raise is "real". Could be a AA-QQ, could be AK-AJs, hell it could be 98s and he wants to find out how low of a raise will take down the blinds. It's not like he has to worry about someone calling off 20% of their stack with a speculative hand.

I call and see the flop. If there are overcards I get very cautious and fold to any bet and check if checked to me. If undercards flop, and if checked to me I put in a bet 10K to 15K. If he c-bets (expected since he sounds aggressive), then it becomes a reraise all-in or fold. If I hit a set then /images/graemlins/cool.gif I'm gonna get some more of his chips. I'm not worried about the luck factor since that is not quantifiable nor controllable. I've made mistakes in the past overplaying JJ, so I would play them cautiously here.

[Lloyd]

Here are some of the things that I was thinking about:

1) Why did he raise just over 2 BBs? That was the first time I had seem him make that small of a raise.

2) If I push, what is the liklihood that I will only be called by AA-QQ, AK-AQ? There is obviously a chance he has a smaller pair, but like I said I didn't see him do anything too crazy. And I do think he understands the gap concept as while he was raising and pushing with somewhat marginal hands he usually had something pretty decent when he called.

3) If I call, what hand range am I representing? That is partially why I was so confident that if I called it would be folded to the villain or if someone played they had a monster. If he had KK or QQ could I get him off the hand if an Ace hit the flop? While I'm in a pretty small chip position I'm still 25% of his very comfortable stack so if an Ace hit and he didn't have one would he call (presuming he doesn't push first)?

[ QUOTE ]
Here are some of the things that I was thinking about:

1) Why did he raise just over 2 BBs? That was the first time I had seem him make that small of a raise.

2) If I push, what is the liklihood that I will only be called by AA-QQ, AK-AQ? There is obviously a chance he has a smaller pair, but like I said I didn't see him do anything too crazy. And I do think he understands the gap concept as while he was raising and pushing with somewhat marginal hands he usually had something pretty decent when he called.

3) If I call, what hand range am I representing? That is partially why I was so confident that if I called it would be folded to the villain or if someone played they had a monster. If he had KK or QQ could I get him off the hand if an Ace hit the flop? While I'm in a pretty small chip position I'm still 25% of his very comfortable stack so if an Ace hit and he didn't have one would he call (presuming he doesn't push first)?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) I agree that the raise size is scary, but as someone else mentioned, given the stacks at the table, it's perfectly reasonable.

2) Let's say that villain made this raise with 88+ (37), AT+ (56). (I think he could've done it with much less based on read.) Ignoring others at the table, if villain is omniscient and calls you only with JJ+(19), AQ+ (32), you're getting called (19+32)/(37+56) = ~55% of the time and you have 43% equity, making the play easily +cEV.

So, if you push and turn your cards face up, the play is +cEV even if villain was on a pretty tight raising range for a LAGgy big stack.

Given that, this is an easy push.

3) If BB or SB has 22-88, they've got good implied odds to play for set value for 5k with a stack of ~60k with 24k in the pot and two players in (one a LAGy big stack).

I hate your KK, QQ argument because it's clearly a disaster if villain has a hand with an A that he would've folded preflop (which is more likely than KK, QQ).

[woodguy]

I push for a couple of reasons.

1) I don't really want to see a flop with overcards and have him bet me off best hand since he acts first

2) I don't want to give the BB odds to call

3) I don't want someone to push for a squeeze behind me, because if UTG calls I have to fold.

4) There is 15K in the middle, if my push folds worse hands than mine I'm ok with adding 30% to my stack without showdown.

Regards,
Woodguy

[Roman]

Mooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[illegit]

Turbo push. Your position kinda sucks, but so does your chip stack and you have a great hand.

[Tyler Durden]

I'll buck the trend and say that I don't think it's an autopush. Depending on my read, I might be content to flatcall here and see a flop, especially if I thought the pot would still be contested heads up.

I was in a situation exactly like this one at the final table of a $100 on Party about a year ago where I was the 2nd or 3rd biggest stack. UTG (chipleader) raised and I was next to act w/ JJ and pushed. He called w/ AK and flopped me nearly dead.

If he folds the hands like smaller pairs to a reraise, you lose nothing by flatcalling, other than giving him the chance to hit a 2 outer. But I think that's a risk I'm willing to take. If the flop looks scary you can get away from the hand w/o much damage to your stack.

Based on your relative skill level and your stack relative to the raiser, I don't like a push. Especially if you only get called by hands that have you in bad shape and coinflipping hands.

[adanthar]

You gain 35% of your existing stack by pushing when he folds, and given your stack size this is so not close it isn't funny.

[Paul Thomson]

Push--you can't afford to price in the blinds when there would be so many scare cards on the flop and can't afford the Villian the luxury to stop n go on the flop or continuation bet you out of a pot.

[Lloyd]

I'm still not convinced it's an auto push although I think pushing is probably correct. However, I called. I'd be lying if I said that somehow the fact that I (as I'm sure all of you) have been burned so many times with JJ that it improperly influenced my decision. I've edited the hand above to reflect the flop action.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you mean preflop. Which I would agree with. Too many ugly overs to fall and you don't know where you're at. So much already in the pot. Jam it in.


But what maniac raises in EP preflop and checks the flop to you and then calls your all in with a worse hand? I can't think of two cards that play it like that. That flop action terrifies me. I'm probably done here, save seeing a miracle J on the turn.


Everett

[Punker]

I'd put him on a fairly good hand, and bet out about 10,000, with the intent of putting no more chips in the pot. If he has A-rag, 10K is enough to fold him, no need to jam on in for 2x pot. The raise PF UTG + check flop combination stinks of either a monster or a piece of trash, so there's no need to invest more than necessary. In limit hold'em terms, you'd be risking 41K to win 24K, when you really only need to risk about 10K to win that 24K.

31K is still enough to play in a no-ante tournament with blinds at 2K-4K. You don't have to rush in and blast your whole stack away into aces.

[KingMedicine]

here is why i DONT like pushing here and prefer a cold call:

Hero's stack IS healthy enough to cold call and try to see a flop - even if he has to fold to a push by a MP or LP player. before the call, hero has 50k. 41k after the call. if he has to fold without seeing the flop, he'll have 35k left after losing his blinds (which may or may not happen) - this means hero can still grab the blinds with his push(es), it just means that at least 1-2 pushes will be imparative over the next 6-7 hands.

granted the flop play isnt going to be easy in most cases and the hero will have to proceed with massive caution. when the flop comes QQ8 (a very good flop for hero), he needs to get his chips in there and hope he's not facing AA or KK or some weak hand with a Q or 88. AA or KK would have called his pf push anyway. He mightve been able to get a hand like KQ or QJ to fold, but hero feels like villian is calling many pushes by him here.

i coldcall the 9k and proceed with caution.
i think a slight case could be made for folding pf as well and id be interested in thoughts on that.

[illegit]

Flop: Odd that he would check this flop after raising PF, especially if he's been kind of aggro. Worrisome. However that's a good flop for JJ. AQ, KQ 88 caught up to you and is a possibility, as are AA-KK. But AK, and TT-99, 77 could be out there too, but I'm not sure why any of these hands would check this flop after raising preflop. All those hands would probably bet. This is a WA/WB. Man i sure wish i had pushed preflop and didn't need to be thinking about what to do here. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I think you're seeing monsters under the bed, Lloyd. Preflop is an easy push.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
But AK, and TT-99, 77 could be out there too, but I'm not sure why any of these hands would check this flop after raising preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Part of my pre-flop thinking, by cold calling am I representing a strong hand. I think so. I'm often worried about people calling off 20% of their stack pre-flop. I've been pretty tight and if he thinks I have a big hand I could see him check-folding something like 77 or AK.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're seeing monsters under the bed, Lloyd. Preflop is an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let me be clear, I'm not too worried about AA or KK. I think I'll pretty much lose my stack to those hands one way or another. Maybe less likely to KK (if he can fold to an Ace high flop). Calling has some merit if you think the chance he has AK-AQ, KQ is greater than the chance that he has a smaller pair or an over and under card AND will call your pre-flop push. And like I said, I do think he has some understanding of Gap.

Now, you can easily make an argument that I want to get my chips in with a small advantage having JJ vs. something like AK, but at the time I didn't want a coin flip even if it would land on my side more often than not. I have enough chips even if I call and fold on the flop to still have a good chance to make the final table. And I'm confident in my ability to pick up some blinds and outplay most of my opponents (particularly those guys named AceHigh and Cfer /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

[Lloyd]

Hey KM,

You were watching him for quite some time. What range of hands do you think he'd be making that raise with, and within that range what do you think he calls a pre-flop push with?

Thanks!

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing this and expecting to be called with the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you mean preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Lloyd edited his post way after mine. Of course you have to push preflop.

[ QUOTE ]
Now, you can easily make an argument that I want to get my chips in with a small advantage having JJ vs. something like AK, but at the time I didn't want a coin flip even if it would land on my side more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on man, *especially* if you thought he folds a large percentage of the time, it's not about the flip at all. You push just to pick up the 35%!

---

On that flop...I'm betting 16K, and if called or CR'd, I'm done with the hand, half of my stack or no. <font color="white"> since he obviously has QT suited </font>

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you're seeing monsters under the bed, Lloyd. Preflop is an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]
Let me be clear, I'm not too worried about AA or KK. I think I'll pretty much lose my stack to those hands one way or another. Maybe less likely to KK (if he can fold to an Ace high flop). Calling has some merit if you think the chance he has AK-AQ, KQ is greater than the chance that he has a smaller pair or an over and under card AND will call your pre-flop push. And like I said, I do think he has some understanding of Gap.



[/ QUOTE ]

The only time I think you can justify a call here is if you are in the BB. Any other time the sacrifice of FE and the threat of letting others in the hand is too great to even consider a call.

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey KM,

You were watching him for quite some time. What range of hands do you think he'd be making that raise with, and within that range what do you think he calls a pre-flop push with?

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think pf he makes that raise with AK, AQ, KQs, JJ, 1010, 99, 88, 77, 66 and MAYBE something like KJs. my feel at the time was that he wasnt slowplaying a monster and that he had a very marginal holding, but that he would quite possibly call an all-in, which is why i voted to try to see a flop and then proceed accordingly, which i think you did.

From watching his play, i think he raises a little more (11k-12k) with AA and KK (or maybe limp with AA, but doubtful).

i think he calls a push from you with pairs 99 and above, and, since i saw him willing to gambol it up a lot, i could see him calling your push with AK, AQ, KQ, and maybe KJs as well.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i coldcall the 9k and proceed with caution.
i think a slight case could be made for folding pf as well and id be interested in thoughts on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

how on earth do you get this

[ QUOTE ]
I think pf he makes that raise with AK, AQ, KQs, JJ, 1010, 99, 88, 77, 66 and MAYBE something like KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

out of that?

[DonButtons]

I also like pushing preflop, JJ is 50% to get a good flop, and with your stack, and the average being 75k, and there being 15 left, this is a good time not to blow 1/5th your stack by folding 50% of the time to a bad flop and then taking the blinds.

But since you called preflop, given the flop action I think you have to bet here, 15-18k, 10k seems to weak, and he might push you off the best hand.

[curtains]

My normal play would be to move allin preflop. The fact that he's chip leader (and thus probably has a relatively wide range) and that you have JJ at a 7 handed table makes me want to put all my chips in, especially as the chips in the pot are like 30% of my stack.

I'm not a fan of calling off 20% of the stack here. IMO your hand is just too strong for this.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I was about 90% certain that if I called, it would be folded back to the villain and 100% certain that if anybody re-raised I would be dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is likely off here as well. Once you call there is about a 15-17% chance that one of your 5 remaining opponents has AK, AQs+ or TT+. I suspect most of them will at least call with these hands, and that some of them might play worse hands.

It's about 7% for any of the remaining opponents to have AA-QQ. Also I don't see how you could possibly believe that you are 100% to be dominated if someone reraises? Do you honestly believe that your opponents won't raise with AK or AKs?

[kuro]

I'd just push preflop and am ecstatic to pick up Jacks seven handed when aggressive chip leader opens.

[Jeremy517]

I had an almost identical hand in a tourney yesterday, except I had tens instead of jacks. Would you all still push preflop with tens?

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i coldcall the 9k and proceed with caution.
i think a slight case could be made for folding pf as well and id be interested in thoughts on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

how on earth do you get this

[ QUOTE ]
I think pf he makes that raise with AK, AQ, KQs, JJ, 1010, 99, 88, 77, 66 and MAYBE something like KJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

out of that?

[/ QUOTE ]

im not sure you asked a coherent question.
cold call and look for a favorable flop. i.e. no A or K, preferably a flop with a pair (like QQ8).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
im not sure you asked a coherent question.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 67.1255 % 66.21% 00.91% { JJ }
Hand 2: 32.8745 % 31.96% 00.91% { JJ-66, AQs+, KJs+, AQo+ }

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not about the flip at all. You push just to pick up the 35%!

[/ QUOTE ]
That was part of my struggle, I wasn't sure how much folding equity I had based on his play thus far.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
I had an almost identical hand in a tourney yesterday, except I had tens instead of jacks. Would you all still push preflop with tens?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't hijack my thread!

[adanthar]

Folding equity is a huge bonus, but a 60/40 edge (and if he doesn't fold tens or nines and doesn't have aces, it's certainly that much) is not anything you can possibly pass up to begin with.

[ QUOTE ]

On that flop...I'm betting 16K, and if called or CR'd, I'm done with the hand, half of my stack or no.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Why is there a flop again?

I like that we're looking at a standard play here and considering other options, but this time I really think there's no room for argument.

Going back to the math I did earlier, in a situation designed to be about the worst possible, he folds 45% of the time and calls you 55% of the time, in which case you have 47% equity.

This means that 45% of the time you have ~66k, 55% * 47% = ~26% of the time you have about ~108k, and ~29% of the time you have 0. Thus, the cEV of the push is ~57.8k, or ~+6.8k . Granted, it's pretty high variance, but you're only busting 30% of the time.

Now, if we relax his raising hands a little to include weaker holdings like AT and KQ and 66, 77, and throw in the odds of him bluffing, you gain huge FE, and the play becomes obvious.

[Exitonly]

oh man 43 responses... so what i'm going to say has probably been said.. and i dont feel like reading all 43.


but i push this preflop, because i think i have the best hand, think he'll call with an inferior hand, and i'd be pissed if i let his inferior hand catch up to me (ala this flop)