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Does anybody feel like when you see a 55/45 "race", the favorite holds up, for what seems, more than 55% of the time? I've been playing poker for about 1 1/2 years and when i used to get it all-in with my TT vs. AK, i'd think, "Ok, it's virtually a coin flip, sure I have an edge, but it really isn't that big, pretty much a 50/50 shot." Now if I get in with TT vs. AKs, I really feel like i win more often than the 54% of the time that TT holds up. That 8-10% edge is much bigger than it seems. I swear, over the short run, TT holds up 60-65% of the time (yes, i know it doesn't). Anybody else share this feeling? If you do, do you know the mathematical reason why? Shoot, I need to take a stats class already.

AKs vs. TT: % for AKs, % for TT
Winning 1x in a row: 46%, 54%
Winning 2x in a row: 21.2%, 29.2%
Winning 3x in a row: 9.73%, 15.7%
Winning 4x in a row: 4.48%, 8.50%
Winning 5x in a row: 2.06%, 4.59%

You happen to remember pairs holding up more than pairs not holding up. I actually tend to expect the pair to lose. This is just a psychological thing which has to do with whether you remember suckouts more or the best hand winning more. Also, the human mind is absolutely horrible at calculating the probability of something happening from memory of its occurrence; we're simply not made for it.

Hope this helps. In the future, try not to ask questions like this; they don't add much.

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In the future, try not to ask questions like this; they don't add much.

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I realized that you're quite right, but ouch, baby... ouch. My bad. Newbie poster here.

[elmitchbo]

it wasn't that bad a post.

it could have been another bad beat story.(yes, i posted one when i was a newbie....)

[ QUOTE ]
AKs vs. TT: % for AKs, % for TT
Winning 1x in a row: 46%, 54%
Winning 2x in a row: 21.2%, 29.2%
Winning 3x in a row: 9.73%, 15.7%
Winning 4x in a row: 4.48%, 8.50%
Winning 5x in a row: 2.06%, 4.59%


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Where did you get these stats?