25 PLO hand vs. a Lag

[TheSalche]

25 PLO @ UB. Villain has me covered, I have about $25. He has been playing somewhat LAGish, loose preflop.

Hero dealt 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif in LP.

8 players to unraised pot. Villain acts after Hero

Flop: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif

EP bets $2, Hero calls, Villain calls

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif Pot @ roughly $8

Hero bets $5, Villain raises Hero nearly all in (like 25 cents less), EP folds, Hero ???

[henrikrh]

Can hit a 5 Q A or club to crack his probable set, should be about 12 outs. 12/44 = 27.2% to win. However this is a lag, so if you cna say with confidence that he is bluffing 1/4th of the time that would make this a profitable call (or raise for the ast few cents).

If my analysis is bad pls tell me, just getting into PLO.

Edit: Actually his set would ahve to eb one of your paired cards so your chance to win would be lower, so you owuld have to put him on alsighly higher chance to be bluffing to justify the call.

Edit again: Oh adn I assumed that his raise was potsized.

[Jim T]

With $8 in the pot, you bet 5 (leaving you 18 out of about 23) which makes a $13 pot. Villain's bet would make the pot $36 for your last $18 - you're getting 2:1.

You have FIFTEEN pretty clean outs - the 6 boat outs plus 9 club outs (2,3,6,7,8,9,10,J,K). This gives you 15 wins out of 44 cards unless he has AA or QQ, which I'd think was pretty unlikely. The problem is that he likely holds at least a couple of the cards you need.

Against a LAG, I'd make the call, because of the chances he's bluffing. Against an unknown or conservative player, I'd probably fold it as a (very) marginally -EV call.

PS I don't necessarily think he has a set, he could just as easily have a straight.

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a LAG, I'd make the call, because of the chances he's bluffing. Against an unknown or conservative player, I'd probably fold it as a (very) marginally -EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is how I would have played in the situation as you played it on the turn. However, you should have raised the flop with top 2 and no draws to see where you stood versus EP who might have a set and so as not to let villain catch a gutshot cheaply.

[TheSalche]

good analysis ... turned out he had 23K9 with two clubs ... club came on the river and the guy got super pissed off telling me how he outplayed me that hand and then i sucked out on him at the river ... funny stuff considering i was about 80% to win off the flop heads up vs. him

[joewatch]

Anybody getting pissed at $25 PLO makes me laugh. But I guess there are Phils everywhere. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif