DVO
10-11-2005, 01:42 PM
Back of the envelope stuff, but close, all in $US:
Market cap: $5.15 Billion
Net income: $171mm ( 6 mo's)
So if they make $350mm this year, which is likely a minimum, you're looking at 15 x earnings.
Negatives: slowing growth, player attrition rising, revenue per poker player dropping, oh, and this is a shady, unregulated, semi illegal operation...
Positives: If we're in a shakeout, the market leader likely wins.....BJ / side games will boost profit ( maybe a lot).....
Thought i'd post this because it's a bitch to unbury this from the published reports, buried as it is in the BS about EBITA ( read: bull^&) / IPO expenses etc etc.
At 15 times earnings, it's a good price if you think the poker boom will continue (even at moderating growth) and PP will still be the 800lb gorrilla in 3-5 years.
But if all the negatives of the past month are borne out, lose lose half your money from here.
Market cap: $5.15 Billion
Net income: $171mm ( 6 mo's)
So if they make $350mm this year, which is likely a minimum, you're looking at 15 x earnings.
Negatives: slowing growth, player attrition rising, revenue per poker player dropping, oh, and this is a shady, unregulated, semi illegal operation...
Positives: If we're in a shakeout, the market leader likely wins.....BJ / side games will boost profit ( maybe a lot).....
Thought i'd post this because it's a bitch to unbury this from the published reports, buried as it is in the BS about EBITA ( read: bull^&) / IPO expenses etc etc.
At 15 times earnings, it's a good price if you think the poker boom will continue (even at moderating growth) and PP will still be the 800lb gorrilla in 3-5 years.
But if all the negatives of the past month are borne out, lose lose half your money from here.