I love my line and my read thoughts on this all in?

[arod15]

1-2NL CP effective stacks 250
Hero is on the button with AJ 1 limper to him
Hero makes it 17 to go
SB a supperlag calls Donkey MP calls.
Flop is 7,7,Q (42 total pot) two hearts
Hero bets 20 two callers
Turn is K checked around
river is a Q (82 total pot) no flush. SB bets 40 (100% sure he has the 7)
Button donks thinks about it and calls (he was clearly weak)
Hero pushes for 200 (160 pot) has them covered?
Suicidal? or brilliant?

[amoeba]

I don't know.

how am I supposed to know whether they'll fold or not?

[The_Bends]

I dunno, can the donk lay down a 7?

[mudbuddha]

i donno for 200 bucks even a donk like myself would lay down a 7..

[ajmargarine]

I dunno. The people I play with would call with a 7 or a K here.

[goofball]

Yeah, completely dependent on whether donk lays down a 7. Some can't, hopefully he was one who can.

I think that your pf raise was entirely too much and once u were called pf and on the 20 flop bet i woulda just stopped. And there is 53 in the pot going to the flop not 42. Also if i was gonna do a continuation bet on the flop i woulda bet more than 20. A 20 bet here is just inviting people to go for draws and commit themselves to the pot where they wont fold 1 pair. And at these limits guys aren't as likely to make laydowns because of the lack of thought process they put into it. Most are playing their hands and not yours. IMO

[KowCiller]

I don't like it at all... I don't think attempting to make donks lay down boats is +EV. Donks generally aren't smart enough to consider being squeezed between the other guy, so there's no extra FE there.

KoW

[arod15]

If you thought you had a 70% chance or more of making this play would you? I guess thats my real question? All you can do is assume my read is accurate. Based on that assumption would you make the play. I say i was 75% sure he would fold the 7. And he did have the seven....

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is on the button

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Button donks thinks about it

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you answered your own question.

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that your pf raise was entirely too much and once u were called pf and on the 20 flop bet i woulda just stopped. And there is 53 in the pot going to the flop not 42. Also if i was gonna do a continuation bet on the flop i woulda bet more than 20. A 20 bet here is just inviting people to go for draws and commit themselves to the pot where they wont fold 1 pair. And at these limits guys aren't as likely to make laydowns because of the lack of thought process they put into it. Most are playing their hands and not yours. IMO

[/ QUOTE ]
No PF wasnt too big for that game. It was standard. 12 gets you 5 + callers it was playing real fast. Although i agree generally it would be way too big.
2nd i agree my continuation bet was way to small
That was a mistake
3rd. The players i was agaisnt were thinking players. They were donkeys because of self control. They were way too loose pf. But in terms of postflop they werent terrible. I would never attempt a play like this against someone i didnt think would be capable of folding. I have a history with these players and they know me as tight.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
If you thought you had a 70% chance or more of making this play would you? I guess thats my real question? All you can do is assume my read is accurate. Based on that assumption would you make the play. I say i was 75% sure he would fold the 7. And he did have the seven....

[/ QUOTE ]

if you were 75% sure then of course.