An AK fold PF @ lvl2

[suited_ace]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t1115)
MP1 (t2810)
MP2 (t975)
Hero (t960)
CO (t1090)
Button (t850)
SB (t805)
BB (t465)
UTG (t930)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t325</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero folds.

Flame away. This was in a Mini Step 3.

[zambonidrivr]

i shove this.
any reads?

[suited_ace]

Good for you. *Why* do you shove it?

I didn't have any reads, but I didn't remember him doing anything donkish either, so...

[Nicholasp27]

i used to shove here, but i tend to fold more to reraises with ak these days...this guy put in 33% of his stack...he's either got ak for the tie or a pocket pair...i wouldn't wanna risk my tourney life this early on a coin flip (especially when i'm most likely on the wrong side of it)

if i had a healthier stack i'd just call him and then shove it in on the flop, but with the call being 1/3 of your stack and him having you covered, i like the fold

if u do the s-n-g, he's gonna call unless an over comes on the flop...with his reraise to 1/3 his stack, he likely has a pretty high pp, so that decreases the odds that he'll fold to the flop push

I'm pushing. Without a read, I'll pay for him to show me AA or KK. I would bet a lot, and often, that he has a weaker A or weaker K. I can't believe the number of times I've seen a move like this with A-10 or KQ.

[zambonidrivr]

I am shoving because this is a Mini Step. If this was a normal SNG, I would fold. If I remember correctly, there are no points for 3rd place? I just got done pulling some 4ft chawlkies so I'm in a bit of a haze.

... folding is not a bad play either as you have plenty of FE. I expect that your up against queens here more often than not. Then again, like the above... how many times are yo showing AQ-AT by some jackass.

[suited_ace]

This is a mini step 3. 1-2 get to mini step 4, 3-4 stay @ 3, etc...

[zambonidrivr]

that said, I like the fold. at blind levels $50+, this is an auto shove

[Nicholasp27]

let's pretend this was a sng...


if you fold here, your ev = .0915
if you push/win, your ev = .1897
if you push/lose your ev = 0
if you push/he folds, your ev = .1354



so if .1897P(W) + .1354P(F)&gt;.0915, you should push

if he never folds, you need to beat his hand 48.2% of the time

if he folds sometimes, then you can win less times

so i guess it really is a push here since u already contributed 100 to the pot

if he had raised before your bet, then your ev of folding would have been .1011

.1011/.1897 = .53

so if he bets before you, you should fold
but because you already put 100 in the pot, your ev is better if you go ahead and push here

[pineapple888]

You have to push this. You are 40% even against [AA, KK, AK] because another AK is more common than the other two holdings combined. Add in the dead money in the pot, the fold equity, the chance that his calling range is wider, and the push is clear.

And you have a SUITED ACE, gosh darn it.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't wanna risk my tourney life

[/ QUOTE ]

you forgot "AK is a drawing hand"

[ QUOTE ]
You have to push this. You are 40% even against [AA, KK, AK]

[/ QUOTE ]

When you look at Pokerstove results, keep this in mind: when you tie, you only get half the chips in the pot back.

For the record, sometimes I push and sometimes I fold, depending on what I've seen of my opponent.

[fisherman112]

when you guys do these calculations, you always ignore the fact that a winning player will outplay his opponents later on in the tournament. thus you should be risk averse in early blind levels. why do you need to get involved in this pot?

[Hendricks433]

I fold here. You only have 100 invested and I hate taking very possible coin flips early on especially if only top 2 move on. I think the fold is fine and leave room to outplay your opponents on the bubble which they should be fairly tight /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
when you guys do these calculations, you always ignore the fact that a winning player will outplay his opponents later on in the tournament. thus you should be risk averse in early blind levels. why do you need to get involved in this pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because one of the prerequisites for being 'good' at higher buyin STT poker is to not be risk averse in the early blind levels.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to push this. You are 40% even against [AA, KK, AK]

[/ QUOTE ]

When you look at Pokerstove results, keep this in mind: when you tie, you only get half the chips in the pot back.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't use Pokerstove, and I accounted for the split.

Three-fifths (60%) of the time, it's another AK, and you get half of that, for 30%.

One-fifth of the time, it's AA, you are 7%, so add 1%.

One-fifth of the time, it's KK, you are 30%, add 6%.

Total 37%. Add 3% or so for suited suck-outs. Total 40%.


[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

For the record, sometimes I push and sometimes I fold, depending on what I've seen of my opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Better have a read that he's super-tight if you are folding.

[adanthar]

Yeah, you're right. It's not 40% but relatively close. However, vs. that range, you still lose chips, and against many people the range is really AA-QQ because AK just calls or pushes.

Having said that, I should also say my default play against an unknown is to push.

Would you play this any different if it were an 11 dollar sng on PP? Seems to me that the donks in the 11s could make this type of move with AQ or AJ very easily. Is it an auto push in the 11s and 22s?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
11 dollar

[/ QUOTE ]

push

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a mini-step 3. Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://lightsecond.com/metastar/images/sbe_snaps/18a.png

Coach Z says, "Good jorb."

[Cactus Jack]

How many overvalue AK? Most. You don't. Good job.

You guys who push this hand automatically, I just don't understand. While you may be mathmatically justified, you should consider that your chances increase as the tourney goes on, as weaker players drop out to slightly-less weak players, assuming you are a good player.

Your aggression may be impressive, but may not be smart. One of the reasons so many weak players push so often is they are not capable of playing post-flop. Pushing takes all the decision making out of the hand. How do you know how good you are if you never/rarely play out a hand? How do you improve if you never make mistakes which you can study? Instead, you justify your aggression with math which only takes into account that isolated situation in a vacuum, when there are many more considerations to consider.

Aw, hell, I know I'm not getting my point across.

OP made a very good fold. He's the one at the table I'd most expect to make my life very difficult when we're down to 5, then 4 then 2. He's the one at the table that I would expect to see most often very late in most SNGs. He's the one I would have to keep a close eye on, rather than one I can dismiss, the only one who worries me. He's a poker player.

CJ

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
How many overvalue AK? Most. You don't. Good job.

You guys who push this hand automatically, I just don't understand. While you may be mathmatically justified, you should consider that your chances increase as the tourney goes on, as weaker players drop out to slightly-less weak players, assuming you are a good player.

Your aggression may be impressive, but may not be smart. One of the reasons so many weak players push so often is they are not capable of playing post-flop. Pushing takes all the decision making out of the hand. How do you know how good you are if you never/rarely play out a hand? How do you improve if you never make mistakes which you can study? Instead, you justify your aggression with math which only takes into account that isolated situation in a vacuum, when there are many more considerations to consider.

Aw, hell, I know I'm not getting my point across.

OP made a very good fold. He's the one at the table I'd most expect to make my life very difficult when we're down to 5, then 4 then 2. He's the one at the table that I would expect to see most often very late in most SNGs. He's the one I would have to keep a close eye on, rather than one I can dismiss, the only one who worries me. He's a poker player.

CJ

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, exactly who are you lecturing?

I'll put my post-flop skills up against anyone. I grew up on the pokerroom $100 SnG tables (deep stack, slow levels, tough players).

But I'll also push pre-flop if I think I have a clear edge. You might not like it, but mathematics is the foundation of those kinds of decisions.

So what's the problem?

[Deuce2High]

[ QUOTE ]
let's pretend this was a sng...


if you fold here, your ev = .0915
if you push/win, your ev = .1897
if you push/lose your ev = 0
if you push/he folds, your ev = .1354



so if .1897P(W) + .1354P(F)&gt;.0915, you should push

if he never folds, you need to beat his hand 48.2% of the time

if he folds sometimes, then you can win less times

so i guess it really is a push here since u already contributed 100 to the pot

if he had raised before your bet, then your ev of folding would have been .1011

.1011/.1897 = .53

so if he bets before you, you should fold
but because you already put 100 in the pot, your ev is better if you go ahead and push here

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read past this post but you basically are proving that you should FOLD. You are NEVER ahead over half the time here. And your not getting ANY fold equity.

If you NEED this hand to win, I'd stop n go / call and see a flop. But in general, this is a fold.


Edit: Ok I didn't know this was a step tournament, let me look at this again.

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
let's pretend this was a sng...


if you fold here, your ev = .0915
if you push/win, your ev = .1897
if you push/lose your ev = 0
if you push/he folds, your ev = .1354



so if .1897P(W) + .1354P(F)&gt;.0915, you should push

if he never folds, you need to beat his hand 48.2% of the time

if he folds sometimes, then you can win less times

so i guess it really is a push here since u already contributed 100 to the pot

if he had raised before your bet, then your ev of folding would have been .1011

.1011/.1897 = .53

so if he bets before you, you should fold
but because you already put 100 in the pot, your ev is better if you go ahead and push here

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't read past this post but you basically are proving that you should FOLD. You are NEVER ahead over half the time here. And your not getting ANY fold equity.

If you NEED this hand to win, I'd stop n go / call and see a flop. But in general, this is a fold.


Edit: Ok I didn't know this was a step tournament, let me look at this again.

[/ QUOTE ]

the math showed u only have to win 48% of the time, not over half...and that's with 0% fe...if u have even 1% fe, then that 48% comes down

[Deuce2High]

Yeah and I thought this was a SNG as well. I don't really play steps. Whats the payout in terms of buy-ins?

[Nicholasp27]

something like 1/2 go to next step, 3/4 stay at step, 5 goes down one step

i did the calcs above for sng payout tho

[Deuce2High]

Honestly, I think it's close.

The cEV of a Push / Stop n Go / Fold are all probably pretty close.

So I pick the choice that will always leave you in the tournament. I still think it's a fold.

Edit: With push being the highest and fold being the lowest, most likely. (cEV)

[Nicholasp27]

according to ICM, it's +$ev IF AK wins 48% of the time against the range they raised with

i'd fold here, too


however, this does show how much difference that 100 bet you made first makes...if u hadn't made it, u have to have a MUCH stronger hand than if u had...