KK w/ uncomfortable stack size - What's your plan on this flop?

[Shorty35]

Empire Happy Hour; 28 left - 10 pay.
New to table - no reads

***** Hand History for Game 2849770306 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:16446442 Level:6 Blinds (75/150) - Monday, October 10, 23:59:50 EDT 2005
Table Happy Hour $10,000 Guaranteed(484115) Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: jostrom ( $3923 )
Seat 3: mossyface ( $1588 )
Seat 4: WESTLE ( $4335 )
Seat 5: flatman23 ( $7470 )
Seat 6: ynotmein05 ( $1630 )
Seat 7: onevision200 ( $5355 )
Seat 8: justmeken200 ( $730 )
Seat 9: LeftyB2 ( $3405 )
Seat 10: Shorty35 ( $2035 )
Trny:16446442 Level:6
Blinds (75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Shorty35 [ Ks Kd ]
flatman23 folds.
ynotmein05 folds.
onevision200 folds.
justmeken200 folds.
LeftyB2 folds.
Shorty35 raises [400].
jostrom folds.
mossyface folds.
WESTLE calls [250].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, 7h, Ac ]
WESTLE checks.
Shorty35 ?

[jcm4ccc]

I think you are too short-stacked to let this one go, or to do something fancy like raise and then fold to a reraise. Sometimes you are deal a hand that, given the situation, you are either going to win or go broke with. I think this is one of those situations.

I would push the flop. There is a decent chance that, if he is holding AQ, AJ, or AT, that he will fold. You could also make a smaller raise that actually looks stronger--for example, you could make a pot-sized raise, which means that you are clearly pot-committed, but also looks less like a steal.

[zoobird]

Bet 2/3 of pot, so it looks like a continuation bet. If he re-raises, I push.

[Yuv]

Push the flop, and raise more pf. What's with the almost mini raise here? raise it to 500-600. If he's the type who calls raises with weak ace, so be it. You're going broke on this one, I know I am.

[adanthar]

Pushing the flop is very, very bad. So is anything else involving ending up all in on the flop, and I can't believe that people want that to happen.

I think this is an easy check*, it's not very close, and what you do afterwards is play poker.

*But on a flop like that, I also check AK a lot.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Push the flop, and raise more pf. What's with the almost mini raise here? raise it to 500-600. If he's the type who calls raises with weak ace, so be it. You're going broke on this one, I know I am.

[/ QUOTE ] Personally, I don't have a problem with the 2.5BB raise. He is in the CO, everybody has folded to him. You don't just want to steal the blinds with KK.

He got one caller, which is about what you want with KK. Bad luck for an Ace to hit the flop, but given that the caller was in the BB, he can still probably take this hand down with a solid bet on the flop.

[zoobird]

I don't like pushing the flop at all either, because I'm assuming you'll generally get called if he's got an ace, and he'll fold otherwise.

But given the situation pre-flop, couldn't he have called with a very wide range of hands...the majority of which you're ahead of right now?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing the flop is very, very bad. So is anything else involving ending up all in on the flop, and I can't believe that people want that to happen.

I think this is an easy check*, it's not very close, and what you do afterwards is play poker.

*But on a flop like that, I also check AK a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also thought about checking the flop, but I think the problem with that is that you are going to lose often to an Ace-weak kicker in the BB. I think that is the problem with this hand--how do you win if the BB has something like AT or A9? Or do you just give this hand up (which seems weak to me).

Checking this flop may give the BB the idea that he has this hand won, which means that he would be more likely to call your bet on the turn than on the flop.

Of course, I've never won $25000 in a tournament before. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the situation pre-flop, couldn't he have called with a very wide range of hands...the majority of which you're ahead of right now?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are ahead now, you are likely to be ahead at the end. In other words, if you are ahead now, you shouldn't worry too much about getting him to fold.

I don't see the BB calling with Ace-weak kicker, but I could be wrong. But that's why I would push or bet strongly.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I also thought about checking the flop, but I think the problem with that is that you are going to lose often to an Ace-weak kicker in the BB. I think that is the problem with this hand--how do you win if the BB has something like AT or A9? Or do you just give this hand up (which seems weak to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability for you to win this hand when the BB has an ace in his hand is exactly 8.8%.

[zoobird]

I think you missed my point (or maybe I missed yours). I'm not trying to get him to fold because I'm ahead. I'm trying to get him to put some money in with a worse hand than mine. Since my pre-flop bet looked something like a blind stealing attempt, I want my bet now to look like a continuation bet, so he thinks I may not have anything. I'm kind of operating under the assumption that if he's got an A I'm probably screwed either way, but that its much less than 50/50 that that's the case - very possible a bad set of assumptions

[zoobird]

What would be wrong with my pseudo-continuation bet idea? Are you putting him on a much smaller range than I am? Without a read, I'm thinking that since my pre-flop bet looked like a blind steal, he could have a range something like 55+, 98s, Ax, Kxs, K7+ and any two cards T+. Is that too wide a range?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also thought about checking the flop, but I think the problem with that is that you are going to lose often to an Ace-weak kicker in the BB. I think that is the problem with this hand--how do you win if the BB has something like AT or A9? Or do you just give this hand up (which seems weak to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability for you to win this hand when the BB has an ace in his hand is exactly 8.8%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? So if you called from the BB with AT, you are calling an all-in raise for half your stack? Is that because the original raiser was in the CO? What if the original raiser was UTG? Would you still call an all-in for half your stack?

[Nordberg]

I like a check here too. If he bets small on the turn you can jam and get him to lay down some weaker aces or call if he is a habitual bluffer or you think he could value bet some other hand.

My original line was to bet 550 on the flop and fold to a jam but I think the check is way better.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]

I also thought about checking the flop, but I think the problem with that is that you are going to lose often to an Ace-weak kicker in the BB.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're going to lose often to ace-weak in the BB if you bet. Except instead of losing a small pot, you get stacked. Nothing good can come of a bet here on the flop. If he c/rs you've wasted a bunch of stack, as you can't call given how likely it is you're down to 2 outs.

Maybe a check could induce a bluff from him on the turn or river, and picking off a small bluff (he would probably bet an underpair after the flop check) seems to be your only hope of winning any more than is currently in the pot.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if you called from the BB with AT

[/ QUOTE ]

I would (almost) never call from the BB with an ace here. However, someone who did will never, ever fold it.

[fnurt]

This is a classic way ahead/way behind situation. I check this flop all day. Give him a chance to bluff at you.

If he has an ace, that's life; the goal here is to win more than just a small pot when he doesn't have an ace.

[zoobird]

Same question for you as I'm hoping adanthar will answer - what's wrong with betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. Its going to look just like a steal attempt followed by a continuation bet. Wouldn't he be likely to call with many hands that your KK is ahead of?

[adanthar]

On an A74 flop, which hands would that be?

[Melchiades]

88-TT? Hehe.

[zoobird]

Good point. If the range I posted somewhere else in the thread is right, maybe something like K7 also, but I guess there really aren't many. I kind of lost sight of what was actually in the flop other than the A.

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if you called from the BB with AT

[/ QUOTE ]

I would (almost) never call from the BB with an ace here. However, someone who did will never, ever fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]


As usual, I think Adanthar has this one spot on.

While it felt just awful, it seemed to me that the only way to play this was to check call. I also would check AK on this flop quite frequently (I think many solid players would), so I am banking on the fact that my unknown villan is aware of this and might check down a weak A; Leaving me with some stack. Attributing this logic to villan is, of course, inconsistent with someone who would call with a weak A here..but I did only have 30 seconds to decide /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Shorty35]

Turn comes 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif, villan makes 1/2 pot bet.

Push, call or fold?

Shorty should have bet more preflop. But now, I would bet the pot back at him. He was probably on the come and missed the flop.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Shorty should have bet more preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

[ QUOTE ]
But now, I would bet the pot back at him. He was probably on the come and missed the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any reason for that statement other than wishful thinking?

edit: if he missed the flop and by extension the turn, why would you raise?

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
Shorty should have bet more preflop,

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I want action with this hand (and with my stack size). And, besides, T400 had been my standard raise at this level.

[ QUOTE ]
He was probably on the come and missed the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the come for what?

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Really? So if you called from the BB with AT

[/ QUOTE ]

I would (almost) never call from the BB with an ace here. However, someone who did will never, ever fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villian called with any Ace he will almost never bet this flop(he expects you to) and will never fold this hand.

Don't pick up KK with that stack /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Since you screwed that one up pretty badly, I bet 500 or 600 pot and fold to a raise.

I think adanthar's line is okay too, except that it's much higher variance as it frequently ends with you calling a few bluffs/value bets.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't pick up KK with that stack /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Since you screwed that one up pretty badly, I bet 500 or 600 pot and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

preflop? or on the flop?

[Koss]

[ QUOTE ]

I would (almost) never call from the BB with an ace here. However, someone who did will never, ever fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

It took me a few early exits from tourneys to learn this lesson. Nothing like raising with queens, getting called by the BB, watching AT7 flop and then getting stacked by A3.

This hand sucks. There's really nothing else out there he could have hit. If there is atleast one other high card on the board I could call him down with more confidence that he's betting something like a pair of jacks if the board was AJ5. I call on the turn, and hope he checks the river.

IMO - bet and raise /images/graemlins/shocked.gif <font color="red"> </font>
/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Melchiades]

Did you just make that worthless post to promote your site?

[CurryLover]

[quote
I would (almost) never call from the BB with an ace here. However, someone who did will never, ever fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely spot on. Nice one, adanthar.

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an easy check*, it's not very close, and what you do afterwards is play poker.

*But on a flop like that, I also check AK a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, we disagreed so much on the other thread .... but I have to admit that I'm in complete agreement with you here.

IMHO, it is highly unlikely that the opponent has an Ace here. If it were, then he/she would almost surely have to come out betting here to try and find out what Hero has. Possibly the opponent is really tricky and would check something like AQo or ATs here, in hopes of inducing a bet from the Hero. Can't really say without more info.

So while not intimate with the situation, I'm inclined to think that the opponent called with big connectors and/or big suited cards, or perhaps with a small pair like 55 or 66.

Also doubtful that the opponent made a little set, because with the Ace on board, I'd probably want to bet the set, in hopes that the opponent made top pair and would then be inclined to raise.

By following the opponents check with a check, you would indeed be giving a free card, albeit that free card is probably a best a 20-1 shot at a set, or improving to a false indication of best hand, or another card towards a back door draw.

I like the chance of giving the opponent a chance to catch something minor, or miss again with the small pair, and induce a bluff or bad value bet on the turn.

Then depending on the card and the situation, the Hero can either cold call to try for more money on the river, or go over the top and take down the pot at the turn.

Probably the best of all worlds would be for the turn to be a King or Queen and see the opponent holding something like KQs.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
IMHO, it is highly unlikely that the opponent has an Ace here. If it were, then he/she would almost surely have to come out betting here to try and find out what Hero has.

Also doubtful that the opponent made a little set, because with the Ace on board, I'd probably want to bet the set, in hopes that the opponent made top pair and would then be inclined to raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are attributing too much skill to an unknown opponent.

Great questions adanthar. By the way I really like the writeup you did on your win and I thank you for it, I learned a lot how people on a different level see the game.

Why bet more pre? - To take away the odds he gets on a call. Shorty's bet gave the Bb 2.5 to 1 odds on a the call. Given the possible range of hands in a steal, these are high enough odds for a lot of hands to call.

Reasons for betting the pot back? - Reason A) One of the range of hands he would have to put you on would be an Ax, with no information on what the x is. Hitting the A, he doesn't know he has a stronger A unless his x is a K. This is the only Ax hand I could see him checking. Reason B) The only other hand he would slowplay is if he hit a set. If that happens, then I guess I have to take my lumps.

Fair questions shorty, I should have backed up my statements. adanthar asked the same first question, please see my response there.

On the second, on the come with suited cards or small or med pair hoping to hit a set. I also responded in more detail to this in my response to adanthar.