Cap every street?

[silkyslim]

villain 26/10/3.5. This is a freaking scary board, but the only hands that beat me are 77, 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif. The 77 and JT are possible.................


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (9 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

[bungyrocks]

looks good to me.nice hand

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
looks good to me.nice hand

[/ QUOTE ]
what do you think he has often enough that i was right?

[BlindingLaser]

You really think this guy raises JhTh preflop in EP? Seeing as he almost certainly doesn't, and he's extremely aggressive postflop, he likely has AhXh, so pump it up. 88 is 3x as likely as 77, and he'd probably go as nuts with either, so I like it. Include number of hands in the PT stats, though, if your read is for a small sample that's somewhat meaningful. NH.

[RatFink]

I could see calling down after the turn 3-bet, but that 3.5 agression factor wants me to get an extra bet or two out of AhKh or 88. But once I'm 3-bet on the river I'm probably value calling my 3rd nuts.

[bungyrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
I could see calling down after the turn 3-bet, but that 3.5 agression factor wants me to get an extra bet or two out of AhKh or 88. But once I'm 3-bet on the river I'm probably value calling my 4th nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed your post

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
You really think this guy raises JhTh preflop in EP? Seeing as he almost certainly doesn't, and he's extremely aggressive postflop, he likely has AhXh, so pump it up. 88 is 3x as likely as 77, and he'd probably go as nuts with either, so I like it. Include number of hands in the PT stats, though, if your read is for a small sample that's somewhat meaningful. NH.

[/ QUOTE ]
i think he is capable of raising JTs. Anyway, the read was 150 hands

[bungyrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
looks good to me.nice hand

[/ QUOTE ]
what do you think he has often enough that i was right?

[/ QUOTE ]

With that agr factor he is playing 88 this way as well as a severely overplayed nutflush - although that is less likely.
I really cant see how you could play it any differently

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I'd go to the felt with this one.

Cap every street.

Enjoy the money.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could see calling down after the turn 3-bet, but that 3.5 agression factor wants me to get an extra bet or two out of AhKh or 88. But once I'm 3-bet on the river I'm probably value calling my 5th nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed your post

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed your post.

[Duffman]

I would defintely cap the turn and river, but I don't understand the point of the flop cap.

It looks like you're definitely behind to a flush or straight. With 7 outs, I don't see how capping would be +EV.

[Shillx]

You are worried about 4 hands and there are 1035 possible on 4th street.

Against someone who plays perfectly, you would need about 60% equity against his current range in order to raise.

So you would go .4^n = 4/1035 or ln(4/1035)/ln(.4) = n bets. The maximum value for n is 6 bets, so you should 4-bet the turn and then call a 5-bet. Since the betting gets capped and there is another card to come it gets more complicated since a river non-blank changes a lot. If you knew that the river would brick out it seems like the best play is to cap the turn and then call a river bet or bet the river when checked to.

Against a more modest opponent you should cap both the turn and river (assuming a blank or one that does not create any more possible hands that beat you) since you can go 8 bets max against someone who will raise the best 50% of all hands in terms of equity. This looks fine to me.

Brad

[mtdoak]

I really don't think his range of hands is THAT great. Your worried about 4 (77, 56s, JTs, J7s) out of, lets see, AKs-ATs (4 combos), 88 (3 combos), maybe throw the rest of the baby aces in there for fun? (A7-A2s) 5 combos. Lets say your ahead , realistically, between 85-90% of the time. I think thats enough edge to keep pushing here.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
villain 26/10/3.5. This is a freaking scary board, but the only hands that beat me are 77, 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and T6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[Maulik]

nh, played perfectly

[olavfo]

[ QUOTE ]
Against someone who plays perfectly, you would need about 60% equity against his current range in order to raise.

So you would go .4^n = 4/1035 or ln(4/1035)/ln(.4) = n bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this equation emerges (cause I'm dumb /images/graemlins/wink.gif). Care to elaborate?

[jskills]

Sorry how is it 5th and not 4th best hand? I see 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif and 77 ahead of 99 only here?

[RatFink]

6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif as well

[jskills]

Hey Brad,

Can you break down this math for me please? I have never seen the use of exponents and logarithms in a situation like this.

Clearly I have a lot of brushing up on probability/statistics to do.

Thanks.

[felix83]

[ QUOTE ]
I would defintely cap the turn and river, but I don't understand the point of the flop cap.

It looks like you're definitely behind to a flush or straight. With 7 outs, I don't see how capping would be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[elindauer]

beautiful. nice catch on the T6h.

[elindauer]

I think by the 3-bet on the river, you're looking at 77, 88, or JTs. It's still 3:2 in your favor and you're closing the action. Cap it. If it was live and it was raised again, I'd just call.

good luck.
Eric

[goofball]

Cap the turn, cap the river.

[mikeyvegas]

Well played.

[poboys]

I don't know many 10% PRFs that would raise JTs in EP. So, I am not sure I can give him credit for that hand. Certainly, you can't give him credit for any other straight flush. If he has quads, he's got quads. I'm capping all day. You may lose this hand, but you will win many more pots when the villan flips over two hearts or 88.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain 26/10/3.5. This is a freaking scary board, but the only hands that beat me are 77, 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, and JT /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and T6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

[/ QUOTE ]
yep i figured that out but the post was off the board so meh. but then it comes back to haunt me, NO EDITS ALLOWED!!!

[SoSo]

not the flop, cap the rest. since u capped the flop it has maded the opp completely mis read ur hand and so u landed in a very profitable situation.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
not the flop, cap the rest. since u capped the flop it has maded the opp completely mis read ur hand and so u landed in a very profitable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
why arent u capping the flop? you are HU against a pf raiser with top set. I wasnt fearing a str8 because raising JT UTG is rare. The worst he could have would be a flush. I have 10 outs to beat that if in fact he does have it. He would 3-bet with AA /images/graemlins/heart.gif, KK /images/graemlins/heart.gif maybe AK with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif, maybe something else. This is an aggressive player. Ok, so we most likely have the best hand and we have ten outs to improve to best if not. I like my cap

[HajiShirazu]

How quickly was he reraising?
(fwiw I cap all streets hope you won)

[TheMainEvent]

[ QUOTE ]
How quickly was he reraising?
(fwiw I cap all streets hope you won)

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean faster = better for hero?

[Nightbrace]

Sure, Capping is fine.