$109 Party - Tough Situation - Er, I think...

Hey guys,

Can you tell me what y'all would do here? This tournament had just started, so I didn't really have any reads yet.

Thanks,

BM


NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Level:1 Blinds(10/15)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: G ( $970 )
Seat 2: T ( $825 )
Seat 3: N ( $1110 )
Seat 4: Q ( $830 )
Seat 5: M ( $1210 )
Seat 6: R ( $1340 )
Seat 9: L ( $985 )
Seat 10: P ( $770 )
Seat 8: W ( $1060 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $900 )
Trny:16489952 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac 8c ]
G folds.
T folds.
N calls [15].
Q folds.
M folds.
R folds.
Hero calls [15].
W calls [15].
L folds.
P checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 9c, 7c ]
P checks.
N bets [150].
Hero raises [300].
W calls [300].
P folds.
N is all-In [945]

Hero?

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 9c, 7c ]
P checks.
N bets [150].
Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pineapple888]

You have to call at the end because of your pot odds.

I sure don't like your line before that, though. I fold to the initial flop bet. Although I probably fold pre-flop to start with anyway.

[Exitonly]

You guys really fold??

a pair and a flush draw is a sexy hand, why would you dump it so easily.. i'm taking advantage of his overbet and pushing him..

for you guys suggesting to fold the flop... then why on earth would you call preflop? this is an ideal flop for that hand.

I agree that this is a great flop for his hand, and I don't mind the preflop limp.

But what hand are you hoping to be against here? I think it's obvious he has two pair or better and is protecting the hand from straight and flush draws.

[DyessMan89]

So many weak-tighties on this board. You are more than min-raising that flop. You are poooooshing.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys really fold??

[/ QUOTE ]

Really.

[ QUOTE ]
a pair and a flush draw is a sexy hand, why would you dump it so easily..

[/ QUOTE ]

I prefer money to sex.

[ QUOTE ]

i'm taking advantage of his overbet and pushing him..



[/ QUOTE ]

A semi-bluff push is tempting, but I just don't like my fold equity here. With a bunch of limpers, one or more of the villains is likely to have a nice piece of that flop, and I'm thinking some of my usual outs in this situation won't get me there (e.g., two pair).

[ QUOTE ]

for you guys suggesting to fold the flop... then why on earth would you call preflop? this is an ideal flop for that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I wouldn't usually call pre-flop. If I did, I might take a shot on the flop if I was first in the pot, but I'd be ready to slow down if I got any action.

[Exitonly]

i think he's right, that is a bit weak tight..

but folding you're giving him credit for more than a pair, and admitting you have no fold equity.. two things i'm not willing to do.

You are ahead of just one pair here, pretty close to even vs two pair, and still 35% vs a made straight/set.

i'm too lazy to double check those numbers so they might be a bit off, but it's close.

I didn't think it was obvious that he had two pair or better based on that bet. Overbets look suspicious to me. By min-raising, I hoped to accomplish one of two things without putting my entire stack on the line:

(1) Since I had position and a pretty monstrous hand (am I wrong in thinking that middle pair and the nut flush draw is "pretty monstrous"?), I thought a min-raise might enable me to see two additional cards for free, while disguising my draw.
(2) I thought that there was an outside chance that the original bettor would fold if he had been caught getting too frisky.

I can see how one might decide to fold on the flop. As for the pre-flop limp - I've had pretty good success limping in with hands like this one and going for the cheap draw-out.

[Exitonly]

i'd be less concerned about the free cards, and more concerned about getting all my money in the middle trrying to win the pot now.

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
So many weak-tighties on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So many winning players who know weak tight is fine this early in a sng.

This is a situaion where I wouldn't hesitate to get my chips in if this were an MTT, but in a SNG it's just too early to be gambling on coinflips. Sucks when the guy is betting a hand like AT, but with that action on the flop I think it's pretty rare.

That large flop bet doesn't leave you a lot to work with, I'd check fold this one as well.

[curtains]

Don't raise to 150, move allin if you want to play this pot. Once you are reraised you absolutely have to call the allin with a draw like that and 30% of your stack in.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
So many weak-tighties on this board. You are more than min-raising that flop. You are poooooshing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that your first choice, or are you just telling me what I should have done, assuming I was committed to the hand? In other words, would you have folded on the flop, too? I think I agree that not moving all-in was a poor idea, but I'm still on the fence over whether or not folding on the flop would have been best.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that this is a great flop for his hand, and I don't mind the preflop limp.

But what hand are you hoping to be against here? I think it's obvious he has two pair or better and is protecting the hand from straight and flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but to say its obvious your opponent has 2 pair or better shows that you don't play at the same tables I play. You are trying to apply reason to an opponent who is often going to be unreasonable.

Your numbers are pretty close.

You are behind T9 and TT and A9 and AA though... ahead of an 87o 2-pair by 10%.

I don't have any problem with giving him credit for more than a pair. And my experience with an overbet like this is that you have very little fold equity.

You're right. People do silly things. I see it all the time as well.

I still fold the flop though because there are very few hands that I have much of an edge against--- the min-raise is not good and should be a push if played.

Did you get to see what he had?

[microbet]

The call at the end is easy.

His bet is freaking big and defies logic, so I don't wanna put him on a narrow range. Crazy people do crazy things. He could have a draw or a hand or nothing and just be thinking his bet is too scary for anyone to call with that board.

Bah, still I think it's a tough choice between push and fold.

Alright, seems like a good time to reveal the results... If I had to do it all over again, I think I'd just go ahead and fold the flop, even though it seems awfully close... As you can see from the results, the other guy in the hand, who called my initial raise, was also on a club draw, leaving me with two less outs.

Thanks all for the help,

Brass

Hero is all-In [585]
W is all-In [745]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
Hero shows [ Ac, 8c ] a pair of eights.
W shows [ Tc, Qc ] a pair of queens.
N shows [ 9s, 9d ] three of a kind, nines.
N wins 50 chips from side pot #2 with three of a kind, nines.
N wins 320 chips from side pot #1 with three of a kind, nines.
N wins 2725 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, nines.
Hero finished in tenth place.
W finished in ninth place.
Hero has left the table.

Preflop: A lot of 2+2ers would fold, but I think that is too weak tight. You are in decent position, and are being offered good pot odds. A big pot that you win now can let you dominate your opponents later on. Good spot to do some prospecting.

Flop: The pot is 70, why would he bet 150? What could he possibly have?
1. Just an EP bluff, as the flop looks scary a lot of the people in the hand. If it is, the bet is too big to make this profitable, and the player is a bit of a donk. Best move, push over the top to take the pot now, and isolate the bluffer.
2. A hand that hit the pot somewhat, but definitely whants to take it down NOW. Ex. Pair and OESD
You are ahead of anyone with 7s or 8s, and behind 9s. If you are up against nines, you have flush outs. Pair +OESD is probably not folding to a push and you are a favorite against the range. So Push, and get yourself a powerful stack. Also, he may fold fearing a straight.
3. 2 Pair or set who wants draws to fold. He may fold to a push, but probably will make an angry call. You are pretty close to even VS the two pair range. So go ahead and put your chips in there. If you can build a big stack now, you can bully your opponents and really control the table.
4. Flopped a straight: I don't think this is very likely. Most people with that big of a hand are worried about creating a big pot. The bet is too big for him to be going for a bet/3bet. The most likely villian response to flopping a straight is a checkraise. If he has a straight, decide the likelyhood that you can stack him if you make the flush. After that calculate your implied odds and call/fold.

Looking at all of these possibilities, and which are most likely, I put 1-15% 2-30% 3- 50% and 4. 5%.

Villians have a tendency to call minraises, so the semi bluff loses a lot of value unless you push.

That is my decision, in this spot, Hero pushes all in over the top.

Edit: Now you made me look silly posting results just before I got my long winded reply in.

Haha. Sorry about that - we must have hit "submit" right around the same time. Thanks a lot for the analysis, though!

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
the other guy in the hand, who called my initial raise, was also on a club draw, leaving me with two less outs.


[/ QUOTE ]
Even worse is that the set eliminates your Ace and Eight draws, and will improve to a full house close to 40% of the time, leaving you drawing dead. Ouch.

All those outs can sure disappear fast...


[/ QUOTE ]

[Uppercut]

Late in a tournament= easy push

Early in a tournament= fold preflop

[Paragon]

WOW, I am kinda surprised with people's responses here, especially insinuating it's weak tight to fold...?

I think what people are realizing is that the crux of the problem is your read on villain. Despite having no reads before the hand began, the 2x pot is a clue to something.

In any case, the real power of pair + flush draw hands are their fold equity, just like with AK pre flop. You prefer to win chips without a showdown; however, if called you are normally a slight favorite or slight dog, occasionally way ahead or behind. Now, how many of you would want to get TT vs AK allin pf at the start of every sng if you had the choice? It's a larger favorite with 56.5% equity than this flop that "hit me perfectly!!!" If A8s is against even the lowly 92o it just has 53.0% equity, and what worse hand can you reasonably expect to face? We call the first situation a "coin flip" somehow when it's not at all.

So... back to your read. Does it really say you have fold equity here? I guess that's up for debate. However, 2x pot leads me to think strength instead of donk overbet. I disagree with people saying sets or straights would be smart to "build the pot" when neither are safe out of position here. Yet, even if it is a good or bad player, both appear likely to call a push. So ultimately, if you expect a call and still prefer to push over the top here, well, you might as well be eager to get allin with pairs vs AK early. For some players that may be best, but I think you can find superior +EV edges later.

Some tangent thoughts:

With either a set or straight, I could make this bet, checkraise allin, or just open shove. It's similar to the concept with Ed Miller's latest magazine article. If they have nothing, well, they would have folded anyway. Every so often - in fact, I might say regularly - you get a call from a drawing hand like A8s that is secretly well behind in a huge pot that started out tiny. This prevents you from overestimating your ability to fold when you get sucked out on a later street AND from overestimating the amount you can extract on future streets. This is especially so with the number of scard cards: any 5,6,T,J makes a four-straight; any 7,8,9 pairs the board; and of course any club completes the flush. All of those cards add up to about half the deck, so I would get it allin asap with any monster holding here.

[Skip Brutale]

I would just push in on the flop! You have top pair and a flush draw, get those chips in there first!