Can I ever lay this down or do I have to pay off?

[rannerboy]

Live 9-handed NL game. Blinds 5/5. Table has been extremely loose preflop, tightening up after the flop.

I'm in one of the blinds and pick up A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Every single player limps to me(!). I raise to 60 and get called by one EP player and one MP player.

EP player has been even more loose than the rest of the table, playing almost any two cards. MP plays pretty solid poker, and he would not call this kind of raise with nothing or a hand that is easily dominated.

My own table image is tight, maybe even very tight, since I haven't played many hands and every hand I have shown down has been very good. For example just a couple of hands ago I busted a guy with JJ when my 33 hit a set on the flop.

So, three players to the flop of K /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Bingo!

Pot size 210. I bet out 200. EP player folds and MP player raises all-in for 490 without even thinking about it. WTF?

So, the pot is 900 and it costs me only 290 more to call. More than 3:1 pot odds, which is great! On the other hand, I'm almost sure that Villain has a hand that can beat TPTK.

Can I ever lay this down or do I just have to pay him off if he has me beat?

As a related question: If you think I should call this every time, how big would villain's raise have to be to make me seriously consider a fold (My stack is much bigger than Villain's)?

[swolfe]

for that price, i think you have to call. i think you're splitting as often as you're losing to a set, and you're winning more often against KQ or something.

[rannerboy]

Thing is I think he put me on at least AK, maybe even AA or KK. He know I wouldn't make that raise with KQ against this many limpers from OOP. Neither do I think he would put me on QQ-TT, even though I would probably have played them more or less the same. And as I said in the first post he wasn't likely to have called preflop with a dominated hand like KQ. Also, since his stack is very small he knows he's almost 100% guaranteed to getting called. Best case as I see it here is a split with AK. Still, those are very good pot odds to say no to... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Mr. Sakuraba]

For anything over 2:1, i call this all day, everyday.

[spahk]

from your description of villain, i'd guess you were looking at a set (is he ever limping along in MP with AK?). but i've seen some stupid things live, and that pot is pretty big, so i'd pay it off. with 200 in pf, and villain having only 500 left, it's going to be hard not to double him up in this hand no matter how you play it. i'd suggest checking that flop in the future anyway, though. you're out of position with a transparent hand, making it almost impossible for villain to make a mistake here when you lead out like that.

[swolfe]

do you think you're good here more than 25% of the time? if so, then call...

if he's a solid player like you're saying then he didn't call over 10% of his stack with 88 or 44. he probably has AA, QQ, JJ, or AK (with AK being most likely IMO).

[rannerboy]

Hmmm...no, I don't think he would have limped AK to begin with so there goes the split...

Is checking the flop really the way to go here? I prefer leading out in situations like these. If I had checked to him and he had bet, I would just have put him all-in. Or if he had put all his chips in when checked to I would have called.

How would you have played QQ/JJ on the flop in this situation? Would you check that as well?

[rannerboy]

He was a solid player but just as the rest of the table playing quite loose preflop hoping to flop big.

[ QUOTE ]
He was a solid player but just as the rest of the table playing quite loose preflop hoping to flop big.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case his range of hands your facing is far broader and you're good more of the time. Unless you have a solid read that you're beat, call if that's the case.

[chumsferd]

I'm crap at replying to hand posts, but I think I can say with total sincerity that if I had this read...

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost sure that Villain has a hand that can beat TPTK.

[/ QUOTE ]

...I would fold. The maths tells me I'd have to be very unsure of my read in order to make a call correct. So, the question is... do you trust your read?

[rannerboy]

You're right his range of preflop hands is broader. But that doesn't mean he'll play for his entire stack on the flop if he doesn't hit big. And I see no hands that hit this flop big except for 44/88/KK/AA/AK...

[rannerboy]

I do trust my read on him, I'm just unsure to whether "almost sure" means "sure more than 75% of the time" /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[ QUOTE ]
do you think you're good here more than 25% of the time? if so, then call...


[/ QUOTE ]

Can't you be good here a little more than that? If we are behind, we have outs to the better hand.

[swolfe]

results? you called?

[rannerboy]

As you may already have guessed I called and he showed 44 for the set.

When faced with the decision I saw nothing but a clear call and didn't really think it through because of the great pot odds. But the more I look at it now, the more I lean towards folding. If the exact same situation came up again, I would probably call anyway... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Leptyne]

Raising from the blinds with a drawing hand is not a good idea.

[rannerboy]

I don't think of AK only as a drawing hand

[rannerboy]

More specifically, I don't want to play AKs against eight other players when my only decent winning chances will be if I hit a straight, a flush or some other kind of monster.

[ QUOTE ]
Raising from the blinds with a drawing hand is not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

My eyes are bleeding.

It would take a really good read for me not to pay off here. Stacks aren't deep enough to get away from it. Yeah, I think you were destined to go down in flames on this hand.

[Leptyne]

The flop will contain an A or K 30% of the time. The flop will contain two of your suit 10.9% of the time, which is not as good as the odds of flopping a set. Most of the time your AKs will be worthless.

If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot.

[Steve Chase]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising from the blinds with a drawing hand is not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising PF with AK is not a good idea?
Common!

[TheWorstPlayer]

Sounds like MP plays pretty straightforward. In that case, with these stacks, I would bet 2/3 pot on flop and fold if he raises. Sounds like he would never bluff in this situation against someone who is tight and raised big out of the blinds. I like your preflop raise, by the way. I might even make it bigger. Bomb the heck out of that baby with that many limpers.

[ QUOTE ]
The flop will contain an A or K 30% of the time. The flop will contain two of your suit 10.9% of the time, which is not as good as the odds of flopping a set. Most of the time your AKs will be worthless.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's a drawing hand that's going to miss the flop most of the time, but what hand isn't a drawing hand by that logic? Pocket pairs? Well, if you have pocket 10s for example, there's only about a 30% chance that the flop will contain no overcards. Which would you rather have, AK which flops TPTK 30% of the time or TT which flops an overpair 30% but still has to worry about overcards on the turn and river? Are you suggesting you would only raise with a premium pair (JJ/QQ/KK/AA) from the blinds when everyone has limped? Even if I agreed with that strategy it would be due to a desire to play extremely tight from the blinds, not because of some arbitrary distinction of what is a "drawing hand".

If you don't raise preflop, you don't give your opponents a chance to make a mistake. You don't give hands that you are an underdog to (small/medium pairs) a chance to fold and you don't give hands that you are a big favorite over (anything except a pair) a chance to put extra money in the pot. And who says you need to improve on the flop to win the pot? Well, I guess if you limp and let 7 other people see the flop with you that's probably true. But if you raise to limit the field to 1 or 2 opponents, you can frequently take down the pot with a continuation bet on the flop, even if your opponents managed to catch a middle pair.

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many starting hands are there that you would be confident of winning a pot at showdown unimproved? Almost any hand needs to improve to win against a large field. Thankfully, we have the ability to win pots without getting to a showdown, letting a good aggressive player win a lot of pots that they wouldn't have if they just sat back and hoped for the cards to hit them. And by limiting the field with a preflop raise, the odds of winning at showdown, even unimproved, go up dramatically.

[rannerboy]

Thanks for all the replies! I really had a hard time getting this hand off my mind but it sure feels better after some discussions. I need to post more hands! /images/graemlins/smile.gif Thanks also for defending my horrible strategy to raise big with a drawing hand from the blinds... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[TheWorstPlayer]

It's not a 'drawing hand'. To be, a 'drawing hand' is a good implied odds hand. AK is not one. I would raise big from the blinds here with many hands. The pot is big. I want it. One of those hands is AK.

[rannerboy]

I know.. I was just kidding referring to earlier posts in this thread. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[chumsferd]

[ QUOTE ]
I do trust my read on him, I'm just unsure to whether "almost sure" means "sure more than 75% of the time" /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Being right 75% of the time isn't important. There is a drastic difference in equity between your read being right and your read being wrong. In order for a call to be correct:

1. Your read needs to be wrong way over half the time (I haven't done the maths, but intuitively I think it will be in that ballpark).
2. When your read is wrong, it has to be WAY wrong (bearing in mind if you knew he only made this play with AK/AA/KK/88/44 you would be correct to fold).

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising from the blinds with a drawing hand is not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

argh i thought you people learned

[Mike Cuneo]

[ QUOTE ]
Most of the time your AKs will be worthless.

If you don't think you're on a draw maybe you should consider the possiblilties of your unimproved hand winning a pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You, sir, are a moran.

[trumpman84]

If you said MP is a solid player, he almsot certainly has 44 or 88 here. Solid players don't limp and call raises with KQ, AK, KJ, etc. Solid players limp/call with small pairs and not much else..so what small pairs plays the flop this way?

[FlyingStart]

I we put villain on PP preflop, isn't it much better to bet a little bit more than half the pot?

I mean.. there is no money to be made after the flop here. Why don't we tell him that we beat a PP below K without investing so much, and then if he telles us that he has a set we can fold. If he solid like you say I don't he will go crazy and raise you with a PP that missed because he thinks you have AQ and missed.

His hand screams set to me, especially given his image. If you were a bit deeper, you would find it easier to get away from this hand. Then again, if both of you had deeper stacks, I'm sure he might have played the hand a bit differently. You have to call with AK here given the stack sizes.