TPTK vs two callers and an all-in

[rwanger]

$400nl party, 6max.

Just sat down. Was sitting into other tables, but I vaguely noticed that there was a ton of action on the previous hand, and a pretty mediocre hand took down the pot.

All relevant stacks are ~$350-400.

Hero in BB with AQo (no spades).
Everyone limps. I raise to $20.
3 callers.

Flop: QsJd6s (Pot is $85)
Hero bets $50
UTG+1 calls.
MP calls.
CO (and last to act) goes all in for $400.

Can I really be behind here? Lately I'm going with my first instinct, which in this instance said to call. Should I listen to it, or go with the "don't be silly calling with 1 pair in this spot" thoughts that are creeping in?

[HoldEmKillah]

Fold. What are you ahead of with that action?

[Voltron87]

first i wouldnt raise that preflop out of the BB against a table that many limpers

second theres no way this is a call, easy fold.

[ShortySaurus]

just by reading the title its an easy fold....

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. What are you ahead of with that action?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't have time to think it through at the time, but I later reasoned:

The hands that beat me are: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 66, QJ, Q6, J6.
AA-JJ are fairly unreasonable because no one raised preflop, not even when given the chance to reraise.
Q6 and J6 seem pretty remote for someone to have limped in with, and especially to have then called a 5x raise.

Reasonably, I am only behind QJ and 66.

[Voltron87]

youre behind a bunch of suited straight draws

granted the dead money will cover the edge those hands have on you

still not a call at all

[swarm]

ummm there are a lot of hands that you are not a favorite over on this board as well.

4 handed raised pot, no reads becuas you just sat down and you want to call a push? Going to lose a lot of money that way over the long haul.

[scdavis0]

Voltron, you are missing the point.

Clearly the original poster called and by some incredible parlay of events, two people had draws, one had a weaker made hand and none of the draws got there. A large pot was then scooped.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
youre behind a bunch of suited straight draws

granted the dead money will cover the edge those hands have on you

still not a call at all

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...so if the dead money (around $635 at this point) covers the edge they have, then why am I not calling?

[swarm]

bingo

[Voltron87]

do you think you should be calling just because youre even money with the best case scenario? did i read that right?

[JMa]

[ QUOTE ]
first i wouldnt raise that preflop out of the BB against a table that many limpers

second theres no way this is a call, easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

not raising preflop decreases the value of AQ greatly. Raise to pick up the blinds, raise to get the pot HU or atleast 3-handed.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]

not raising preflop decreases the value of AQ greatly. Raise to pick up the blinds, raise to get the pot HU or atleast 3-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. What do you do when the flop comes Q high and there is action? Anyone could have anything.

[Voltron87]

youre in the BB...

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]
do you think you should be calling just because youre even money with the best case scenario? did i read that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just trying to figure out how bad this call was.
If I'm up against QJ or 66, then which player has it?

If I'm not then:

If I'm up against an open ended straight draw, nut flush draw, and KQ, they have 22 outs against me. So I'm like what, 25-30% to win here? If they all call, final pot will be around $1450, giving me 4.3:1 odds.

I'm not arguing that I was right, I'm just need someone to explain more clearly why this is such a "clear fold."

[scdavis0]

You just explained it yourself. If they all have the exact hands they need to have to not have you utterly crushed, you are still barely getting a good price.

[Denutz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
do you think you should be calling just because youre even money with the best case scenario? did i read that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just trying to figure out how bad this call was.
If I'm up against QJ or 66, then which player has it?

If I'm not then:

If I'm up against an open ended straight draw, nut flush draw, and KQ, they have 22 outs against me. So I'm like what, 25-30% to win here? If they all call, final pot will be around $1450, giving me 4.3:1 odds.

I'm not arguing that I was right, I'm just need someone to explain more clearly why this is such a "clear fold."


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I agree with you, but without much doubt I think the person pushing has one of two hands: 80% of me thinks 66, 20% QJ and wants to get callers chasing flush and str. Assuming that at least one person (most likely the pusher) has this hand you're either drawing to three outs or needing something runner runner to take the pot. You don't have any good redraws (i.e., not even a backdoor flush draw, for what little that's worth). Clear fold to me unless you have a great read that the pusher is an utter fool. Save your money for a time with better equity.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
You just explained it yourself. If they all have the exact hands they need to have to not have you utterly crushed, you are still barely getting a good price.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly

its very possible that CO has a draw. what he did is typical of a T9s or KTs. if he pushes he has good fold equity and if he is called he still has a crapload of outs.

You're behind him, but the dead money will make it even. If that is your best case scenario, then its pretty easily to see my point. Why call if the best case is that you are even? Then all the times you are crushed make it -EV.

no read on him?

[Voltron87]

he has a straight and flush combo draw a lot of the time too.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I agree with you, but without much doubt I think the person pushing has one of two hands: 80% of me thinks 66, 20% QJ and wants to get callers chasing flush and str. Assuming that at least one person (most likely the pusher) has this hand you're either drawing to three outs or needing something runner runner to take the pot. You don't have any good redraws (i.e., not even a backdoor flush draw, for what little that's worth). Clear fold to me unless you have a great read that the pusher is an utter fool. Save your money for a time with better equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying. If you had QJ or 66, would you play it the way the button did? Pushing all in lets a lot of hands off the hook that would call a smaller raise. Him moving all in gives anyone who wants to call just over 2:1 odds to call, meaning, they could correctly fold a draw.

If I were him and had QJ or 66, I would raise less (like make it $150), and expect everyone to call, then get it in on the turn. But then again, I would be trying to get as much money in as I could, rather than trying to blow out the draws on the flop.

By the same token, if I were UGT+1 or MP, I would absolutely RAISE with 66 and QJ before hearing from the players behind me, because calling the $50 gives them CORRECT odds to chase. And would expect to be called by BB who looks like he might have AA, KK, AQ.

Is this sound reasoning?

[scdavis0]

Your call stinks. I'm done with the thread.

[Jeebus]

it would be sound reasoning provided everyone behaves just like you laid out and no one is trying to get tricky or on tilt or any of a number things that could be going on. Hell someone may have just gotten a bad case of the runs and just want to get their money in and hit the toilet.

[Voltron87]

wtf?

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you're saying. If you had QJ or 66, would you play it the way the button did? Pushing all in lets a lot of hands off the hook that would call a smaller raise. Him moving all in gives anyone who wants to call just over 2:1 odds to call, meaning, they could correctly fold a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes no sense, wtf are you talking about

making so they can correctly fold a draw is the point, what are you going to do, give them odds to call? i dont understand at all

[ QUOTE ]
If I were him and had QJ or 66, I would raise less (like make it $150), and expect everyone to call, then get it in on the turn. But then again, I would be trying to get as much money in as I could, rather than trying to blow out the draws on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would make it 150 wtf? 100 more? there is 320 in the pot

[ QUOTE ]
By the same token, if I were UGT+1 or MP, I would absolutely RAISE with 66 and QJ before hearing from the players behind me, because calling the $50 gives them CORRECT odds to chase.

[/ QUOTE ]

you mean you would raise BB's 50$ bet? thats the only part that makes sense out of any of your posts in this thread. of course them not raising doesnt mean they dont have a hand that beats you though

[ QUOTE ]
Is this sound reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I really be behind here? Lately I'm going with my first instinct, which in this instance said to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
then call... this looks like a call to me. i wouldve called

[ QUOTE ]
Should I listen to it, or go with the "don't be silly calling with 1 pair in this spot" thoughts that are creeping in?

[/ QUOTE ]dont worry about stupid rules like the this... and in what spot anyway? in a raised pot w/ the best possible one pair in a revved up wild SH game where you have a measly 100BB stack?

raise considerably more PF. flop bet is fine.

[rwanger]

You're right Voltron. The "Raise $100" idea is wrong if you have 66 in the CO.

What is the exact right amount to raise?

The pot has $235 when it gets to you. Is this a spot where you should routinely move all in for $400 (almost 2x the pot)?

[rwanger]

Is it the presence of the other callers that should have deterred me from calling this?

ie. If it goes fold, fold, raise all-in, then you call right?

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
$400nl party, 6max.

Just sat down. Was sitting into other tables, but I vaguely noticed that there was a ton of action on the previous hand, and a pretty mediocre hand took down the pot.

All relevant stacks are ~$350-400.

Hero in BB with AQo (no spades).
Everyone limps. I raise to $20.
3 callers.

Flop: QsJd6s (Pot is $85)
Hero bets $50
UTG+1 calls.
MP calls.
CO (and last to act) goes all in for $400.

Can I really be behind here? Lately I'm going with my first instinct, which in this instance said to call. Should I listen to it, or go with the "don't be silly calling with 1 pair in this spot" thoughts that are creeping in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you really be behind???? Are you serious???

Sure, there is a chance you are ahead. But if you call, anyone with a flush draw or a straight draw is getting the proper odds (i.e. well over 2:1 with 2 to come) to join the party.

Your hand has no redraw except running KT that aren't clubs. Your A may not be an out.

EASY FOLD.

The hand I see more fish getting busted on is one pair. Why anyone wants to play a big pot with one pair (either TPTK or an overpair) is beyond me.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]

The hand I see more fish getting busted on is one pair. Why anyone wants to play a big pot with one pair (either TPTK or an overpair) is beyond me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sometimes play big pots with one pair, and often when I do, my one pair beats their bluff or overplayed worse one pair or draw.

Absolutes dont "really" belong in nlh.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The hand I see more fish getting busted on is one pair. Why anyone wants to play a big pot with one pair (either TPTK or an overpair) is beyond me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sometimes play big pots with one pair, and often when I do, my one pair beats their bluff or overplayed worse one pair or draw.

Absolutes dont "really" belong in nlh.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right. Clearly there is a time and place. Never meant to offer an "absolute"

My point remains that fish overplay/go too far with their 1 pair hands.

[rwanger]

I should be able to fold this, and I do fold TPTK when appropriate, but for whatever reason, I couldn't put anyone on a hand that was already ahead of me.

So I called.

And as some/all have figured out by now, I won the hand. The pusher had J9 (middle pair), UTG+1 had 94s, and MP had A7s. I expected the all in player to be on a draw, and was nervous as hell when BOTH! players behind me called.

Luckily, it held.

Not sure I would do it again though. I realize this call was slim, just trying to get input so that my future actions aren't clouded by the results in this particular case.

Unfortunately J9 and 94s both immediately left the table broke. Wish they had stayed...