The math of moving all in

[jack1234]

ok, so another case of the nl player needing help from the limit player, for all you math geniuses out there!

What i would appreciate is some math analysis of when it is correct to move all in at the end of a nl tournament, with say, 1-3 opponents, in terms of the realtive correspondence between hand, position and stack sizes. Mostly im thinking of being the agressor and chip leader, but i guess applying it to being short stacked would be an interesting comparison. Ok, examples:

1) k8 in small blind (75), against bb(150). I put him all in for his remaining 1100 more. How mathematically correct a move is this purely in terms of the odds and hands he can have? As for the game situation, i do this as there are 3 of us left, the game pays only 2 and he has gone all in 4/5 of the last 7 hands short-stacked with no calls. My instincts and quick math tell me i am certainly right as even with an A he is only likely to be 3-2 on, but it is the precise math work that i really need to see explained, ie relating odds and stack sizes and calculating my edge.

2) Raising with Ax at the end of a game with very high blinds. A few (very) simple calculations tell me that rules of thumb are (against one opponent) to move all in with A2 if the opponents remaining stack is less than 5 times the total amount of blinds and so on:

A3 less than 5 1/2 - 1
A4 6 - 1
A5 7
A6 8
A7 10
etc

do you think it is as simple as this in math terms?


3) How do you think moving all in is affected mathematically by the number of players, both to act and who have passed? If I have say, A5(suited or not) against 2 opponents, how do i then relate total blinds and stack sizes to hands odds when determining an all in move (we are talking here about real crapshoot levels of blinds) Also, what about the difference inactive players make (ie. those whove already passed. If there is one guy whos passed already, is my K8 descision altered greatly, and what about 2...3...4 etc? For the pursopes of clarity, perhaps the situation here would be lower blinds levels and healthy stacks all round, except me low chipped in sb w k8 against bb.

4) Can anyone recommend some good pure math works that would help with all of this - most poker books dont go far enough really i find in just the math! I mean more of a math professor writing text books about poker odds (or just probability) than a poker pro writing about the game here i guess ( I already have plent of 2+2 books). I use twodimes.net frequently (can someone verify this is a reliable source of info?), but other similar programs would be useful to hear of. Is turbo texas holdem (or the tourney version) going to be much help in these matters?

Thanks in advance,
jack

[jack1234]

could someone help with the above post please, 'the math of moving all in'? It would be much appreciated..!

[lorinda]

Hi there Jack.

Your post in the Probability forum alerted me.

Not sure if you clicked the link, but this is the values of the hands for your hand vs one random opponent.
Hand values (http://gocee.com/poker/he_ev_wins.html)

Hope this helps a little,

Lori

[BB King's]

I think your post is too long ! And not very well written.

[jack1234]

thx pal, thats real constructive. Actually im a writer with an Oxford english degree, and it looks fine to me.
What are your qualifications?

Stop wasting my time, which is surely more valuable than yours.

fly me to vegas,
jack

[Louie Landale]

If I read your post correctly, you have more chips than the aggressive player and have enough money to survive 4 rounds of blinds. Your best bet in the Tourney, I'd guess, is that the aggressive player puts himself all in against the 3rd player. That's bad for both of them and GOOD for you sitting on the side line, since with no investment your chances of coming in the money are greatly increased.

So lets pretend this is not a tourney. If the aggressive player wants to keep putting himself all in and for some reason you LIKE K8 all-in against a random hand, then you are MUCH better off just calling and HOPING he'll raise. When YOU raise he can and generally WILL get selective and you'll find yourself either stealing the BB or being all-in against a better hand; and I hate it when that happens. Even so, I'd prefer a hand better than K8.

Over-all, you seem to be confusing two different facts [1] how well a hand does hot-and-cold against a variety of random hands, and [2] how well a hand does against someone wielding a hand they are willing to call a big bet with. Hands that are slight favorites in situation [1] (such as K8 and A2) are BIG DOGS in situation [2]. Your reasoning, therefore, only has some reasonable merit against completely brain dead fold who will call a huge bet with Q6. And if you are playing against that sort of player you will be able to outplay them in other much more advantagious situations.

- Louie

[jack1234]

Thanks, Louie and others whove replied usefully. Reply by paragraph no:

1) The point is the 3rd guy is sitting back. Im not sure that what chips i have left really matters(but, me 1800, him 1000, 3rd guy 3000), but the 3rd player is out in front and either card dead like me or letting us fight for second. What you say is certainly an important part of Tourney poker advanced, but in this situation short handed with high blinds its almost doenst apply. sklansky applies it mainly to the start of final tables rather than the end
and in this game, it would be disasterous if used here imo.

2) But this is a tourney! In a cash game there'd be far more than 40 bbs worth of chips in play (even 40bb would be an extremely short stack). Really, I'm happy for him to get selective, call me, or give up the blinds, as it breaks his run, and restricts his furure options. All of the above are better than sitting tight. And he cant be that selective, as he can only survive another 3 rounds, giving him the choice of calling anything as hes been doing, or waiting and playing with what could easily be a mediocre hand v 2 players, and few chips.

3)I dont recall any mention of hands other than how they play cold. thats the whole point of this post. willingness to call has nothing to do with it, its about necessity and survival - at this stage a huge hand is improbable. Continually folding increases the opportunities he has to find a big hand, rather than restrcting them. and surely the so called 'gap concept' acts in my favor here, since i want him to fold and further restrict his options.

Ok folks, so what im really after here is math analysis of when restricting the other players options by taking the blinds or forcing a call is justified in relation to the relative risk. Its difficult to assess the credibility of the people replying, so id really prefer either some concrete math analysis to explain what is correct/incorrect, or some statement of what exactly qualifies you to voice opinion (ie mathmos or
tourney specialists please.) I have no problem with how i played the K8, but if people want to disagree thats fine as long as they have credentials to do so!

fly me to vegas,
jack

[jack1234]

re article at:
http://www.cardplayer.com/?sec=afeature&art_id=13194


David,
have just found your article, and it seems very relevant to my post above, since i am interested in finding a math guide for moving all in. I wondered if you had any reflections on my above questions and, specifically, how extreme you think the variatrion is between your inproved system and 'ideal' mathematical play in short handed situations, or even heads up? For example, at its extreme the system recommends moving all in heads up first to act when your opponents stack or your own is less than 20 times the total blinds with any two cards - is this specifically with reference to the wsop or a very large tourney with a slow clock, and if so how might the numbers be adjusted for other games. eg 1 table satellites? in such a case, where 2 players were left with $5500 and $4500 each surely the key number for moving with any cards would be below 5? 20 would mean moving all in in this situation automatically at blinds of 75 and 150!

is a 'deep analysis' something that would be extremely complex to achieve, and do you, or anyone else have plans to do one for this situation?
thanks,
jack