The math of moving all in

[jack1234]

ok, so another case of the nl player needing help from the limit player, for all you math geniuses out there!

What i would appreciate is some math analysis of when it is correct to move all in at the end of a nl tournament, with say, 1-3 opponents, in terms of the realtive correspondence between hand, position and stack sizes. Mostly im thinking of being the agressor and chip leader, but i guess applying it to being short stacked would be an interesting comparison. Ok, examples:

1) k8 in small blind (75), against bb(150). I put him all in for his remaining 1100 more. How mathematically correct a move is this purely in terms of the odds and hands he can have? As for the game situation, i do this as there are 3 of us left, the game pays only 2 and he has gone all in 4/5 of the last 7 hands short-stacked with no calls. My instincts and quick math tell me i am certainly right as even with an A he is only likely to be 3-2 on, but it is the precise math work that i really need to see explained, ie relating odds and stack sizes and calculating my edge.

2) Raising with Ax at the end of a game with very high blinds. A few (very) simple calculations tell me that rules of thumb are (against one opponent) to move all in with A2 if the opponents remaining stack is less than 5 times the total amount of blinds and so on:

A3 less than 5 1/2 - 1
A4 6 - 1
A5 7
A6 8
A7 10
etc

do you think it is as simple as this in math terms?


3) How do you think moving all in is affected mathematically by the number of players, both to act and who have passed? If I have say, A5(suited or not) against 2 opponents, how do i then relate total blinds and stack sizes to hands odds when determining an all in move (we are talking here about real crapshoot levels of blinds) Also, what about the difference inactive players make (ie. those whove already passed. If there is one guy whos passed already, is my K8 descision altered greatly, and what about 2...3...4 etc? For the pursopes of clarity, perhaps the situation here would be lower blinds levels and healthy stacks all round, except me low chipped in sb w k8 against bb.

4) Can anyone recommend some good pure math works that would help with all of this - most poker books dont go far enough really i find in just the math! I mean more of a math professor writing text books about poker odds (or just probability) than a poker pro writing about the game here i guess ( I already have plent of 2+2 books). I use twodimes.net frequently (can someone verify this is a reliable source of info?), but other similar programs would be useful to hear of. Is turbo texas holdem (or the tourney version) going to be much help in these matters?

Thanks in advance,
jack

[Al_Capone_Junior]

#1: You didn't say how much $$ you had. If you're the chip leader with 500,000, then of course you put him all-in. But with a blind of only $150, $1100 is probably too big a raise with K8s, unless you have a huge stack of chips. I'd raise it to 450 or 600 with that hand. Against a random hand, I'd think you would need to use a simulator to figure out exactly where you stood, I doubt it can be precisely calculated.

#2: I doubt it is that simple. I also doubt that A7 is really that much better than A3 or A2, at least not as much better as the chart you had listed. In the end, when there's only 3 left and you're paying huge blinds that are a great deal of your stacks, any ace is probably the bomb, and you should usually go all-in.

#3: Once again, if the blinds are at crapshoot levels, any ace is the bomb. Other than that, I think you would benefit greatly by reading tournament poker for advanced players, by Sklansky, if you haven't already. I think this would do a great deal to clear up your questions here.

#4: Turbo hold'em has a simulator which can be useful for determining which hands play well in hot and cold situations. Tournament hold'em does not have this function. Of course you must use the simulators with caution, and interpret the results the same way.

al

[jack1234]

anyone know how i summon the mighty powers of Sklanksky, Malmuth and Zee to help with this one?

thanks, al, but im not sure that really helps me out - i usually know whats correct, so i'm asking how i achieve some math amalysis of the edge i actually have in these situations - a lot of big pros have pushed in with far less than K8 at the very end. A halfway raise in the situation described would have been the worst possible move against this agressive player for reasons already described. I have Tournament poker advanced, but i dont think the all in section covers my questions really. Also, could someone point out the best simulators available for these situations (as David describes on p69 of TPA) - will turbo texas holdem cover it all?

[jack1234]

re article at:
http://www.cardplayer.com/?sec=afeature&art_id=13194


David,
have just found your article, and it seems very relevant to my post above, since i am interested in finding a math guide for moving all in. I wondered if you had any reflections on my above questions and, specifically, how extreme you think the variatrion is between your inproved system and 'ideal' mathematical play in short handed situations, or even heads up? For example, at its extreme the system recommends moving all in heads up first to act when your opponents stack or your own is less than 20 times the total blinds with any two cards - is this specifically with reference to the wsop or a very large tourney with a slow clock, and if so how might the numbers be adjusted for other games. eg 1 table satellites? in such a case, where 2 players were left with $5500 and $4500 each surely the key number for moving with any cards would be below 5? 20 would mean moving all in in this situation automatically at blinds of 75 and 150!

is a 'deep analysis' something that would be extremely complex to achieve, and do you, or anyone else have plans to do one for this situation?
thanks,
jack