Wk 6 StL @ Indy -13 [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

10-09-2005, 09:28 PM

Couldn't believe this line when I first saw it. I rarely bet the Rams and haven't run the numbers yet but I may actually be on Bulger and Co. for the first time in a while.

Ed: Well I'm gonna take that back...no play after all. Too many trends going for Indy/against Martzbecile.

McGahee

10-09-2005, 10:05 PM

I agree - In the end I'll probably chicken out because I have a rule about not betting on a Mike Martz team on the road...
But wow, that's a lot of points considering the Colts have yet to play against a good offense this year.

10-09-2005, 11:46 PM

uh the rams are horrible they are going to get destroyed, look what the giants did to them, thats how the rams do on the road. 120-20 final

whipsaw

10-09-2005, 11:47 PM

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120-20 final

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Looks like the over is the easiest play then. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

MEbenhoe

10-09-2005, 11:55 PM

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120-20 final

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Looks like the over is the easiest play then. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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I know you're joking but looks like the under at 51 is once again the play on an Indy game this year. Indy is yet to go over yet this year and as long as they keep getting these inflated lines on the O/U, because every week has to be the week Manning finally lets loose and throws 6 TDs, I'll keep taking the under.

whipsaw

10-09-2005, 11:56 PM

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120-20 final

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Looks like the over is the easiest play then. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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I know you're joking but looks like the under at 51 is once again the play on an Indy game this year. Indy is yet to go over yet this year and as long as they keep getting these inflated lines on the O/U, because every week has to be the week Manning finally lets loose and throws 6 TDs, I'll keep taking the under.

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Totally agree.

deadm0ney

10-10-2005, 12:17 AM

Indy under has covered all 4 games so far i believe..

10-10-2005, 12:35 AM

only reason i dont like the over as much is sometimes the rams dont show up in road games and get demoralized into 10 points, so the colts would have the get most of the slack

rtrombone

10-10-2005, 02:23 AM

The Colts are going to knock Bulger out of the game.

I wonder if my book will have that prop bet.

ThaHero

10-10-2005, 03:39 AM

Does anybody think the fact that they are on the road matters less since they will be in a dome on turf. Of course the Rams stink on grass.

Losing all

10-10-2005, 06:09 AM

10-10-2005, 09:08 AM

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Does anybody think the fact that they are on the road matters less since they will be in a dome on turf. Of course the Rams stink on grass.

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The Rams defense stinks on turf, grass, asphalt, dirt ...

FishNChips

10-10-2005, 06:08 PM

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Indy under has covered all 4 games so far i believe..

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this is not correct.

The Browns and Jags beat the spread against the Colts. I believe the Colts are 3-2 ATS this year with 5 unders coming in.

FishNChips

ThaHero

10-10-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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Does anybody think the fact that they are on the road matters less since they will be in a dome on turf. Of course the Rams stink on grass.

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The Rams defense stinks on turf, grass, asphalt, dirt ...

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But their offense doesn't.

10-10-2005, 06:25 PM

This may be wrong to say due to the man's health but I'm actually glad that Martz won't be doing the play-calling for the next 6 weeks.

NajdorfDefense

10-10-2005, 11:35 PM

last year scored 17 and 33 on road turf. 1-1.
Year before lost both scored 20 and 23.
year before scored 10 at SEA and lost. 1-4 road turf.

Only 5 games, but not good for the Mouflons.

Naj

jedinite

10-11-2005, 10:45 AM

Wagerline shows a suprising amount of early money on San Fran +13.5 (44% versus 56% on Indy). Not sure if this is early sharp money and the public has yet to weigh in, or if this is going to be a much more square line with the consistent public positive gambling perception on the Rams helping to balance the overwhelming public sway on Indy. Bodog currently has +13.5 -105 versus -13.5 -115... I think this line moves to +14 before the week's over, assuming the usual mass of money comes in on the Colts.

It is worthwhile to note that the 75% of the early money in this game is on the over.

All that being said, I like St. Louis here. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors). Public perception still rides Indy - i've talked to a couple of my regulars this week who were deriding me for fading Indy this week, who were quick to judge that San Fran game as Indy "dominating". I'm sorry, but take back one of the five Alex Smith turnovers and Indy doesn't cover that game - it took a ridiculous showing by a rookie to turn around the almighty power of the BSPs.

St. Louis is the first real offense the Colts have faced this year. And while the Rams have a terrible road record, that's really obscured by a larger statistic - the Rams are much better on turf than they are on grass, and a lot of their road losses are "really" losses due to grass surface versus losses because they're on the road IMO. Indy @ home means dome, turf, and the Rams being able to backdoor cover quite a bit of the time.

I'm waiting for this game to move to +14 then i'll be moving on it heavily, I think.

jedinite

10-11-2005, 10:56 AM

FYI Bet On Sports already has St. Louis +14 -110. (first place I saw it).
I imagine the rest will follow suit shortly.

A couple humorous trends:

Indianapolis are 6-16-1 SU in their last 23 games after being more than 14 point favorites in the previous game.

In the game immediately after playing 49ers, the Colts are 0-5 SU.

Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of other trends against the Rams (2-8 ATS in their last ten games, for example) and others for the Colts, I just found those two humorous...

NajdorfDefense

10-11-2005, 05:43 PM

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All that being said, I like St. Louis here. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors).

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Martz is 53-32 lifetime, better than just about any active coach. Better than Parcells, Belicheck, etc.

Clearly he sucks.

Just because he struggles with clock mgmt, oh wait, that makes him like almost every other NFL coach, Reid, Edwards, Tice, Billick, et al.

Of course, he should try to burn less than 2 TOs in the first minute once in a while.

Naj

jedinite

10-11-2005, 06:23 PM

Lifetime Martz is a great coach lifetime, i'm not trying to say otherwise.

But in the last few weeks he (or someone on his staff) has made some massive coaching errors. I'll have to go to my notes (i don't have them with me today) to see the specifics, but I believe a major one of them was running a reverse in the redzone two - three weeks ago when they'd been sucessfully pounding the ground game - trick play at a critical time which resulted in a turnover and cost them the game, flat out a coaching / playcalling error in my opinion.

I don't have all the details, but watching every Rams game the past five weeks, it was enough to make me specifically note that Martz seemed off this season and was making fundamental coaching errors. If you listen/read his postgame comments, he's specifically mentioned a lot of coaching errors and has "taken the blame" for a lot of the losses - which I know a lot of coaches will say, but here I think its accurate.

To the point, that when his illness was announced, I wondered if that wasn't somehow a factor in his recent poor decisionmaking / coaching.

Xelent

10-12-2005, 10:55 PM

I thought Martz is out because of his heart condition?

jedinite

10-12-2005, 11:13 PM

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I thought Martz is out because of his heart condition?

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He is. I was saying earlier that it's possibly a good thing for the Rams, if he was the one making the terrible coaching decisions in the past few games.

Of course, I hope he's healthy and wish him a full recovery / etc. Just hoping that if/when he comes back he doesn't decide to call random reverses in critical situations/etc

Xelent

10-13-2005, 04:01 AM

Oh, I agree completely that it is good for the Rams. I think he is the worst coach in the NFL I have seen for a long time. I hope he recovers from his illness, but should not be given his job back. Man, think about what the Patriots organization would do with that offense.

youtalkfunny

10-14-2005, 01:27 AM

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Indy under has covered all 4 games so far i believe..

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this is not correct.

The Browns and Jags beat the spread against the Colts. I believe the Colts are 3-2 ATS this year with 5 unders coming in.

FishNChips

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I think he's saying the UNDER is 4-0 in Indy games.

This game will be tough for me. I hate Martz, and I hate Manning.

I guess if Martz won't be there, I'll have to cheer against Manning.

legend42

10-14-2005, 12:31 PM

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only reason i dont like the over as much is sometimes the rams dont show up in road games and get demoralized into 10 points, so the colts would have the get most of the slack

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The Rams have scored 10 or less points only 3 times in their last 40 games (and Bulger was out for 2 of those). If there were ever a total to lay off , this is it. But with a gun to my head, I take the over. The Rams D has been shredded by everyone this year.

mother_brain

10-14-2005, 11:34 PM

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Just because he struggles with clock mgmt, timeouts, late game play calling, and remembering that you can run the ball.

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My first and hopefully last FYP. I say we all just go the wise way and not bet on a rams game.

ZeroGravitas

10-15-2005, 01:19 AM

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Only 5 games, but not good for the Mouflons.

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Excellent TMQ reference! I got a haiku published in his column back in the Page 2 days.

jedinite

10-17-2005, 05:23 PM

Good article on Joe Vitt, the Rams ass't head coach who is filling in for Martz tonight, written by John Clayton:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2192247

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Martz called Vitt into the office Monday and told him to take control of the team until he gets his health right. He was the natural choice because Vitt also has a close relationship with the Rams' top executives, John Shaw and Jay Zygmunt.

Vitt was considered so valuable as an assistant that Zygmunt recruited him to help talk free agents into signing with the team when free agency began in the early 1990s. Vitt is street tough. His vocabulary is brief and sometimes salty.

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