Monday opening bid for PRTY.L : 40?. [Archive]

ncboiler

10-09-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sudden 40 % decrease of players in Party Network does not please investors I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

40%? I think it's much smaller than that. And that is if NOBODY switches over to party from one of the skins. And the people that were playing the skins but counting towards the number of people on the party network did not contribute much to party's bottom line.

jrobb83

10-09-2005, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Sudden 40 % decrease of players in Party Network does not please investors I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

A decrease in the Party Network sure, but there will undoubtedly be an increase in the number of players on Partypoker.com. As I understand it, their profit margin is far higher on partypoker.com players than on Party Network players.

So the real question is if the additional profit created by players switching back to Partypoker.com will make up for the profit lost when players never switch back.

What does Party think the answer to that question is?

Guthrie

10-09-2005, 04:41 PM

Then there's the small matter of the massive lawsuits by all the skins.

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 04:42 PM

Well man, you're a little off on this one, first off it's going to take a while for the LSE to realize that there has been this big of drop off in players. Also pp can do some interesting reporting so no one except the serious investor/player will know what's really going on. Second shareholders/stock price is based on the P/E ratio, not how many players play on it (for the long term). For the short term stock prices are largely based on supply/demand. PP stocks will be more affected by the addition of blackjack then by the breaking up of skins. For your information if you do not currently know the P/E ratio and don't know what a usual gaming stock trades on the LSE DO NOT TRADE YOUR OWN STOCKS, buy mutual funds for the love of GOD!!!!!

discliamer:

(I used to daytrade stocks for a living, but DO NOT PM me for advice on stock trading, if I don't know you, I won't give you advice)

beeyjay

10-09-2005, 04:42 PM

i think this has to be good for party. all the pros play on the skins for rakeback. this means that theyll all be stuck playing each other on tables with nobody on them and so theyre gonna switch to party to follow the easy money. this means the people that play the most are going to be playing on party equals good for party.

kenberman

10-09-2005, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sudden 40 % decrease of players in Party Network does not please investors I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

jrobb83

10-09-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Then there's the small matter of the massive lawsuits by all the skins.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Party knew they were opening themselves up to massive lawsuits by all the skins, do you really think they would have done this?

lu_hawk

10-09-2005, 04:49 PM

I don't see how this is necessarily bad for party, you can think up many scenarios where it turns out to be good in the long run. Empire on the other hand will be crushed tomorrow.

Luv2DriveTT

10-09-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Then there's the small matter of the massive lawsuits by all the skins.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Party knew they were opening themselves up to massive lawsuits by all the skins, do you really think they would have done this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. This is a part of their corporate strategy, and I have to say its brilliant. I would think its safe to assume that each skin's contract is to be on the "IGM Network Shared Platform". I doubt there is anything within the contracts that state that Party must remain on the shared platform as well. This will signal handedly force one for the following to occur:

1) Skins to be forced to submit to a takeover (ala Poker Now)

2) Skins to sell user base to Party

3) Skins to leave the Party network altogether, while watching their user base jump ship to join Party

This really is a win-win for Party, they just lowered the cost of acquisition greatly for themselves. Of course temporarily their user base will become smaller, but they made significantly less off the skins than they did from their primary user base anyway.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Shoe

10-09-2005, 08:36 PM

I don't see this changing party's price much... but shouldn't we be shorting empire? what is their ticker again?

A_PLUS

10-09-2005, 08:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well man, you're a little off on this one, first off it's going to take a while for the LSE to realize that there has been this big of drop off in players. Also pp can do some interesting reporting so no one except the serious investor/player will know what's really going on. Second shareholders/stock price is based on the P/E ratio, not how many players play on it (for the long term). For the short term stock prices are largely based on supply/demand. PP stocks will be more affected by the addition of blackjack then by the breaking up of skins. For your information if you do not currently know the P/E ratio and don't know what a usual gaming stock trades on the LSE DO NOT TRADE YOUR OWN STOCKS, buy mutual funds for the love of GOD!!!!!

discliamer:

(I used to daytrade stocks for a living, but DO NOT PM me for advice on stock trading, if I don't know you, I won't give you advice)

[/ QUOTE ]

Party sends out a press release, analysts read it, they do a quick check, see the drop in players, pass along the info. It is already known by people that follow the stock.

I have no idea if it will be viewed as a positive or negative. I dont really know how this affects their current and long term profitability. But lets not pretend P/E is the only driver of stock price please. If it were that easy, we would all be rich.

But I couldnt agree more with this

Buy MUTUAL FUNDS unless you have a lot of experience in the financial markets.

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 08:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Second shareholders/stock price is based on the P/E ratio

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry, I think I will pass on any stock advice from you.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Jeff W

10-09-2005, 08:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If Party knew they were opening themselves up to massive lawsuits by all the skins, do you really think they would have done this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of whether what they did is legal or illegal, they can still be sued and that brings bad pub.

10-09-2005, 08:52 PM

in my opinion, it's gonna tank. i expect about a 15 point drop.

info moves fast.

Cubswin

10-09-2005, 08:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry, I think I will pass on any stock advice from you.

[/ QUOTE ]

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 08:58 PM

Ummm..... NO [censored] stock price is affected by lots of factors, p/e raition was just 1 example. I USED TO DO IT FOR A LIVING!!!!!!!! Oh, and did I mention I made over 100K a year so I must of known what I was doing. THERE ARE TONS!!!!!!!!!!!! OF FACTORS. TONS!!!!!!!!

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 08:58 PM

Well man, in 2004 I averaged a 42% ROI so I think I do know what I'm doing.

Jeff W

10-09-2005, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ummm..... NO [censored] stock price is affected by lots of factors, p/e raition was just 1 example. I USED TO DO IT FOR A LIVING!!!!!!!! Oh, and did I mention I made over 100K a year so I must of known what I was doing. THERE ARE TONS!!!!!!!!!!!! OF FACTORS. TONS!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I never believed those anecdotes about monkeys throwing darts at boards until now.

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
stock price is affected by lots of factors, p/e raition was just 1 example.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about p/e raition, but the p/e ratio is merely a measuring tool, NOT A FACTOR.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 09:00 PM

if enough do this, the opposite effect will happen short term, but yes, long term, empire needs to do something to save them or they're screwed.

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 09:02 PM

I just got my Aces cracked by 52o, guy called raises all the way and hit a gut shot straight on the river. Boy, that guy must have really known what he was doing!
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Cubswin

10-09-2005, 09:05 PM

You might know what your doing but your sure as hell dont know how to describe it in a meaningful manner.

cubs

PS... ive said it many times before and ill say it again... those that brag about how much money they make, be it in poker, the stock market or in their 9-5, are usually lying about it.

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 09:09 PM

kiss my [censored] ass

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 09:12 PM

you're right, I suck at explaining stuff, but hell, I was trying to be nice and tell people not to go out and short the stock just based on this info, there are lots of factors, so please do your homework, don't just invest cause you heard it on the internet, that was my point. just do your homework. and if you don't understand the stuff, either buy some books, or invest in mutual funds, that's ALL I WAS TRYING TO GET ACROSS!

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 09:12 PM

Can I get a PUT option on that?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 09:18 PM

Okay, how about this:
1. Party Poker customer service sucks, and has shown a poor ability to retain its subscribers long term.
2. Poker Room stocks fundamentals are usually derived from $x per subscriber.
3. Party just got rid of 10% of it's reportable subscribers.
4. Not only did they reduce subscribers, but they did it by shutting down the site during a peak weekend prime time. Revenue takes yet another hit because of the site being down.
5. Party will get hit with lawsuits and valid or invalid, lawsuits create uncertainity.
6. Party has a track record of not being able to put a very good PR spin on things.

RikaKazak

10-09-2005, 09:20 PM

Now that is an EXCELLENT REASON to short a stock.

Shorting a stock cause you read it on an internet forum BAD IDEA.

Shorting a stock because you have a good reason and solid background on the "mechanics" EXCELLENT IDEA.

I just didn't want everyone running out tomorrow and shorting the stock ONLY because they read it on here.

UncleSalty

10-09-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, how about this:
1. Party Poker customer service sucks, and has shown a poor ability to retain its subscribers long term.
2. Poker Room stocks fundamentals are usually derived from $x per subscriber.
3. Party just got rid of 10% of it's reportable subscribers.
4. Not only did they reduce subscribers, but they did it by shutting down the site during a peak weekend prime time. Revenue takes yet another hit because of the site being down.
5. Party will get hit with lawsuits and valid or invalid, lawsuits create uncertainity.
6. Party has a track record of not being able to put a very good PR spin on things.

[/ QUOTE ]

7. Party stock takes a dive after management reduces guidance becuase of the "lost" players

8. Management buys back a significant portion of the publicly traded shares at a discount

9. Plan works as intended, revenue 1 year from now is significantly higher than 2005 comparables

10. Stock is worth a boatload more than it was when management instituted buy back.

11. Party Poker makes one million gagillion fazhillion dollars more in the stock market than they already have.

stlip

10-09-2005, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a part of their corporate strategy, and I have to say its brilliant.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think at best you can say it's winning the battle and losing the war.

They're cannabilizing some smaller sites, not showing that they can go out and deliver the amazing growth in the poker universe that investors want.

They are doing nothing that addresses the root of the problem that sent the stock tumbling a few weeks ago, i.e. that the new players they see as a group tend to play less, and then more of them leave altogether in shorter periods of time.

They've angered customers and this creates opportunities for competitors to steal their momentum.

I only see this as increasing investor unease with the stock.

kenberman

10-09-2005, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Party Poker customer service sucks, and has shown a poor ability to retain its subscribers long term.

[/ QUOTE ]

compared to competitors, you have no idea if this is true. in fact, the industry is young enough that nobody knows what a 'good' number is.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Party just got rid of 10% of it's reportable subscribers.

[/ QUOTE ]
how do you figure? you have no idea what they may have lost
[ QUOTE ]
4. Not only did they reduce subscribers, but they did it by shutting down the site during a peak weekend prime time. Revenue takes yet another hit because of the site being down.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. the stock price isn't going to take a hit b/c they were shut down for 0.000456621 of the year.

[ QUOTE ]
5. Party will get hit with lawsuits and valid or invalid, lawsuits create uncertainity.

[/ QUOTE ]
you have no idea if this is true, and even if it is, you have no idea of the merit of said lawsuits.

bottom line: almost everyone here huffing and puffing about how this may affect stock price has no idea what they are talking about. unless you have SPECIFIC knowledge about the revenue sharing arrangements between the skins/Party, the legal arrangement between the sites, and how the new moves will ACTUALLY affect revenue, you might as well flip a coin.

cardcounter0

10-09-2005, 09:28 PM

So you will be buying Monday morning?
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Greg J

10-09-2005, 09:34 PM

JESUS CHRIST MAN DON"T YOU SEE WHAT HAPPEN WHEN YOU DARE TO OFFER ANY CRITICISM OF THIS GUY???????WHAT ARE YOU THINKING THIS IS GUY IS OBVIOUSLY AN EXPERT THAT SHOULD BE F_ING SELF EVIDENT!!!!!!!!!11111

Luv2DriveTT

10-09-2005, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
They've angered customers and this creates opportunities for competitors to steal their momentum.

[/ QUOTE ]

63,000 players online at Party tonight tell me otherwise. Although I do agree this is just a major battle, not the war.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

goodguy_1

10-09-2005, 09:53 PM

IF Party opens down considerably on Monday morning I'm calling my broker at CSFB as early as possible to buy stock in London. Problem is that it will 4 be hours into UK trading.

Assuming you dont have access to Instinet during Euro-opening trading hours the best way to watch Party(PRTY.L) open is look at how it opens /trades on a few German exchanges which should be 5/6 hours ahead EST. Starting at ~3am est in around 5 hours you'll see an indication of where the stock may go.
FrankFurt is the most active german exchange-volume is very thin in all of these markets with:
symbol P2G.F
other exchanges are: Partygaming (http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=partygaming+&t=S&m=)
EOL.L(Empire Online)hasnt traded in Germany in months -it may this morning thu: Empire Online (http://finance.yahoo.com/l?s=Empire+online&t=S&m=)

There also a good chance Party and Empire's stock will be halted until the news has been disseminated properly-not sure on UK rules on trade halts whether they extend to other european bourses.

If Party opens down considerably I'll be buying.
I think this is very bullish for Party long term--short-term thu this stock will be all over the place.

If the analysts and major shareholders really undertand the landscape this stock will move higher.

If I were short I would cover immediately if the stock opens down.

Problem is there have been rumors of Party making another pre-annoucement on earnings..so this muddies the water.there are many crosscurrents.

I had been a bear on PRTY not anymore.

Empire is going to get smoked badly.

Gala which just bought out Coral/EuroBet is part of a private buyout firm-not publicly traded. I wonder if these guy saw this coming? Ashurst keeps Candover close with £2.18bn Gala - Coral deal (http://www.thelawyer.com/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=116899&d=122&h=24&f=46)

goodguy_1

10-10-2005, 03:22 AM

PRTY.L EOL.L (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=eol.l+prty.l)

Party and Empire just opened in London both are down slightly less than 4%. I'm very surprised Empire isnt down more--they must have something brewing to save their assz.

Party will hold these levels or rally and EOL is going to tank imo.

Sniper

10-10-2005, 03:28 AM

Party Bouncing... Empire continues to drop!

goodguy_1

10-10-2005, 03:30 AM

yes Empire is starting to tank I only have 15-20 minutes delayed LSE qoutes from Yahoo Finance.

I guess PRTY did pre-annouce again that earnings would be light this morning: [ QUOTE ]
On the downside, PartyGaming (PRTY.L: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 2.2 percent after the Chief Executive of Empire Online (EOL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) warned on Monday that the overall online gaming market showed virtually no growth during the third quarter on 2005.

[/ QUOTE ] Reuters.com (http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh2287 6_2005-10-10_07-31-57_l10733691_newsml)

I dont see a separate formal press release on the earnings warning thu just saturday's news: http://www.partygaming.com/images/new_platform_launch_08_10_05.pdf

somapopper

10-10-2005, 05:32 AM

Party's down 8% at the moment... I thought the move might raise stock prices, but apparently this thing is a blood bath.

Edit: Empire's down almost 25%... jesus. Really folks, get your money out right now.

Baulucky

10-10-2005, 06:58 AM

Covered short @ 74 on the bounce back from 70.25

Not ready to buy this thing as an investment, but I think that the downside is limited now. The actual move to break from the skins may play good for their net profit in the medium term.

Who knows really?. I'm even opening a RB party acount this week.

Cry Me A River

10-10-2005, 11:44 AM

Empire down 33% and it's not even noon!

How low until Party launches their hostile takeover? Which presumably has been the plan all along...

Eder

10-10-2005, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, how about this:
1. Party Poker customer service sucks, and has shown a poor ability to retain its subscribers long term.
2. Poker Room stocks fundamentals are usually derived from $x per subscriber.
3. Party just got rid of 10% of it's reportable subscribers.
4. Not only did they reduce subscribers, but they did it by shutting down the site during a peak weekend prime time. Revenue takes yet another hit because of the site being down.
5. Party will get hit with lawsuits and valid or invalid, lawsuits create uncertainity.
6. Party has a track record of not being able to put a very good PR spin on things.

[/ QUOTE ]

7. Party stock takes a dive after management reduces guidance becuase of the "lost" players

<font color="red"> 8. Management buys back a significant portion of the publicly traded shares at a discount </font>

9. Plan works as intended, revenue 1 year from now is significantly higher than 2005 comparables

10. Stock is worth a boatload more than it was when management instituted buy back.

11. Party Poker makes one million gagillion fazhillion dollars more in the stock market than they already have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop giving out secrets most of us have spent 20 years learning....