River Value Bet With Set Gets Check Raised Big

[Post-Oak]

I have 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the big blind.

2/4 NL 10 Handed
Folded to player in mid position, who limps
Villain ($758) completes in SB
Hero ($833) checks in BB with red nines

Flop J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif ($12)
Villain bets $4
Hero calls
MP folds

Turn 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif ($20)
Villain bets $12
Hero raises to $54 total
Villain calls

River 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($128)
Villain checks
Hero bets $96

Villain raises all-in for $601 more.

Board is J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero???

Is folding horrible?

Edit: Sorry, no reads. I have never played with villain before.

[mikech]

hmmmmmm that's quite a river c/r push. i probly call cuz i can't lay down sets but i expect to see 7c6c a fair amount of time.

[flawless_victory]

that is a really tough spot... i think folding here is fine.

[calmasahinducow]

Are there any reads? I really can't fold here without any.

edit: i speak english goot.

[binions]

Tough spot. You don't want to go broke in a pot that wasn't raised preflop. In the blind, he could have anything. Potentially, there are 51 hands ahead of yours (JJ, A2, 62, 76).

On the other hand, I usually call here on the net, because I expect to win at least 40% the time. There's $320 in the pot, and you have to call $601. 40% of $921 > 60% of $601.

Only if I am postive that I am a 2:1 dog or worse will I fold.

[kagame]

raise preflop

this will usually take it down, or you follow through on flop, if you get to the turn the hand is just fun

[ahnuld]

I really do think folding is horrible. Some of the players at 2-4 are such donks, that they would do this with any two pair. I think J9 is a real possibility and the sb would think hes slowplaying you on the turn. I call.

[mgsimpleton]

raise preflop. then raise flop. as played, he has 67. fold. next hand.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop. then raise flop. as played, he has 67. fold. next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

um ... why does 67 bet the flop and the turn and call the turn raise? only 6c7c makes sense on the turn, but what about the flop? 1/3 pot bet into two other players with a gutshot straight draw and backdoor flush draw doesn't make any sense at all to me.

-cj

[DyessMan89]

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop. then raise flop. as played, he has 67. fold. next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop. then raise flop. as played, he has 67. fold. next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

um ... why does 67 bet the flop and the turn and call the turn raise? only 6c7c makes sense on the turn, but what about the flop? 1/3 pot bet into two other players with a gutshot straight draw and backdoor flush draw doesn't make any sense at all to me.

-cj

[/ QUOTE ]learn to read the bpard.

[ahnuld]

Damn didnt relaise the 9 would give 67 a double gutshot. I want to change my opinion to a fold, unless you have a read on villan that says he might be an idiot. 67 would probably bet flop like that to get a cheap turn chance at the nuts, and he would then have picked up an outside straight draw on the turn, who knows, maybe even with the clubs. But I could definitly fold this now.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
learn to read the bpard.

[/ QUOTE ]

i read the bpard just fine. Learn to read my ppst. I asked why would 67 bet 1/3 pot on the flop OOP with two other people to act behind in an unraised pot with nothing but a gutshot. That's the part of the picture that doesn't make sense to me without reads.

On the turn, non-club 67 makes sense if he figures he can get about a potsized river bet out of Hero, which i guess isn't unreasonable given Hero's turn raise.

-cj

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
learn to read the bpard.

[/ QUOTE ]

i read the bpard just fine. Learn to read my ppst. I asked why would 67 bet 1/3 pot on the flop OOP with two other people to act behind in an unraised pot with nothing but a gutshot. That's the part of the picture that doesn't make sense to me without reads.

On the turn, non-club 67 makes sense if he figures he can get about a potsized river bet out of Hero, which i guess isn't unreasonable given Hero's turn raise.

-cj

[/ QUOTE ]
you make it sound like he showed a lot of strength or something, "he bet 1/3rd pot into 2 players!" um, he bet 4 dollars. in a 2/4nl game. to belabor my point, that's the smallest bet he could make. it's a silly bet, but you've never seen a gutshot try to name his own price before? in this case for the very minimum?

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
you make it sound like he showed a lot of strength or something, "he bet 1/3rd pot into 2 players!" um, he bet 4 dollars. in a 2/4nl game. to belabor my point, that's the smallest bet he could make. it's a silly bet, but you've never seen a gutshot try to name his own price before? in this case for the very minimum?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response. That's a legitimate point. But the flop is still the piece of the puzzle that doesn't quite fit, in my opinion.

My impression from reading the other posts that recommend a fold is that the reasoning is "a huge c/r all-in when there are 3 to a straight means the nuts against an unknown the vast majority of the time." That may well be true, but against an unknown I have to assume that the actions make some logical sense.

So river: c/r all-in = strength or bluff. strength = straight (which beats us), set or 2 pair (which don't beat us, except for JJ which is ruled out by preflop and turn). Would the nuts really reraise all-in like this? I need a read to expect this, since it seems like the exception rather than the rule.

Turn: bet 3/5 of pot, call ~pot-sized raise. Getting about 2:1 odds, Villain would be getting almost the correct pot odds with 6c7c, would be relying on implied odds for non-club 67 double gutshot or a flush draw. Single gutshots would probably have to fold unless they're pretty sure they'd double up if they hit. A made hand may also call. What hands would lead and call and not reraise you? a draw, maybe a set (would probably reraise), two-pair. But is the 12 on the turn with a draw consistent with the 4 on the flop? If he wants to price himself in for the draw, 4-8 seems more consistent with the flop bet (if he's a player who will minbet the flop with a gutshot), unless he's decided "ooh, now i have 6-8 outs, so I'll semibluff a scary 60% of the pot and hope Hero will fold," which also doesn't make much sense to me.

Flop: min-bets pot. Could have anything ... gutshot still seems strange to me. You're hoping for everybody to fold, or you're trying to set a small-ish price for your draw. Since 1/3 pot will rarely fold people out, it must be the second.

Looking through this, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see (1) a busted draw, (2) two pair, (3) a set, (4) the nuts, but the combination of flop + turn cast doubt, in my mind, on any 67 but 6c7c. Furthermore, if there's any chance Villain is a thinking player, then he has to know (1) you don't have JJ, (2) you don't have the straight, so it would be hard for you to call an all-in raise with anything but 99, 55, or 33.

Myself, I don't have enough information to fold. If the assumption is that the average, unknown player doesn't really think about things this carefully, then why even bother trying to analyze it, since nothing will combat the conclusion that he's an unknown who c/r big when one of the possible draws hits, so obviously you're beat. So I call, and if he shows me the nuts, I pay him off and note it. If he doesn't, I take his money and note it.

-cj

[Post-Oak]

Thanks for the responses.

I did call. He did have the nuts (6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif).

I called relatively quickly, and this is one of those spots where I really feel I should have taken longer to think before I acted. His holding 67 made sense considering he had a double gutshot on the turn.

I still think I need to value bet on that river. I am a little torn over whether this is a fold against an unknown, online 2-4 player. Considering the deep stacks, I would say it is a fold though.

Does anyone disagree that I must value bet that river?

[scdavis0]

lol of course you value bet the river

c'mon

[r3vbr]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the responses.

I did call. He did have the nuts (6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif).

I called relatively quickly, and this is one of those spots where I really feel I should have taken longer to think before I acted. His holding 67 made sense considering he had a double gutshot on the turn.

I still think I need to value bet on that river. I am a little torn over whether this is a fold against an unknown, online 2-4 player. Considering the deep stacks, I would say it is a fold though.

Does anyone disagree that I must value bet that river?

[/ QUOTE ]



Against a random opponent, I would have insta-called and lost. But I know this call is -EV (at least marginally). These are the times in wich the gamble in you takes over and turns a marginally -EV play into a marginally +EV play, even though you know if you replay the hand 1000 times it's gonna lose money, it's still impossible to lay it down.

Of course if you're playing some tricky loose fish who would try that with 2 pair like J4 then it's a clear call.

But most players nowadays are weak tight and like to slowplay/checkraise the nuts a lot.

But the way it was played, it looks exactly like 67. It's really the top-of-the-list of probable holdings ehehe

I read the answer beforehand so i hope im not being result oriented

[Ulysses]

Here's what I think you'll see:

67 - a lot (unlike the other poster, I think that flop bet is VERY consistent with 67)

33/55 - I think you'll see both of these a decent amount of time

some random crap - some small amount of time against an unknown here, you'll see something just plain ridiculous

Given the line you saw, I think 67 is definitely most likely. But I think you'll see 33/55 enough of the time to make a call at least close, if not fine or good.

[KaneKungFu123]

this is 76 a large percent of the time. unless he is a donkey, a fold cant be wrong, or far from wrong.

[chuddo]

A2cc also possibility here.

just re-iterating. but a fold is fine.

after having a read on someone you should know one of two things:

1-if they ever overvalue decently strong hands
2-if they are capable of making this huge of a bluff on the end.

if either and especially both are true, then often you have to suck it up and pay off his gutterball.

but without info, you can fold.