($27) Call an allin with a draw?

[durron597]

Opponent is extremely LAG. At the beginning of the tournament he bet 700 out of an 1100 stack and then folded his last 400. Then he played a lot of pots and won a lot of showdowns, busted 2 people with KK and built a big stack.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2510)
Hero (t1435)
MP (t1975)
CO (t1115)
Button (t2085)
SB (t4380)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls t250, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t700) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t1500</font>, Hero ???

[Pudge714]

I'd probably call getting good odds and with one potentialy two over cards

id fold this so fast

1135:1835 is what you need to call in order to win whats in the pot aleady. That is no where NEAR the odds you need to call with flush draw + 2 overcards. so i dont know why you even contipplate a call here unless you think that villan is pushing with 2 missed cards on this flop.

[pearljam]

fold pre flop.

[Hendricks433]

Why raise UTG with this?

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

fold, you are not getting the odds. I posted a hand where I was getting 2:1 from pot (more if people called behind me) on a 2:1 shot and I called (it put me all-in). Raptor said easy fold

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

another reason to fold this weak hand is that villain is the big stack and can destroy you...

[AA suited]

Nut flush draw + 1 overcard = 12outs= 1:1 odds (turn + river)

add the dead $ in the pot already, and you have the odds, no?!?! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

If not, where did my thinking go wrong?

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
Nut flush draw + 1 overcard = 12outs= 1:1 odds (turn + river)

add the dead $ in the pot already, and you have the odds, no?!?! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

If not, where did my thinking go wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]



Your thinking is dead-on.

Against a pair of kings or lower, you are flipping with the bonus overlay already in the pot. Against said villian, you very possibly have 2 live cards plus the draw.

Add to that your chip stack relative to the field, and I think I call here and not lose any sleep over it.

[Slim Pickens]

Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I think this call is good because he's probably either semi-bluffing and you're ahead right now or he's got a smallish PP and you've got overs plus the flush draw.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the call, but what is he pushing that you are ahead with ace high?

[handsome]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo

Probably. If his range is 22+, AT+ (which is plausible given he is LAG) then you are 45:55, so a call is correct based on the pot odds. You might also catch him bluffing with Q9 or such.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the call, but what is he pushing that you are ahead with ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

a worse flush draw or a gutshot, or a total bluff

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the call, but what is he pushing that you are ahead with ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

a worse flush draw or a gutshot, or a total bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think A3 or A4 is that likely? As for the flush draw I can only think of KJs KQs, QJs. Maybe a stop and go with missed high cards that is probable, but I think more likely is 22+ without a set, or JT+. I guess the only hand in that range your in real bad shape against is AT otherwise easy call.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the call, but what is he pushing that you are ahead with ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

a worse flush draw or a gutshot, or a total bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think A3 or A4 is that likely? As for the flush draw I can only think of KJs KQs, QJs. Maybe a stop and go with missed high cards that is probable, but I think more likely is 22+ without a set, or JT+. I guess the only hand in that range your in real bad shape against is AT otherwise easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only a $27 he could have easily called the (stupid) raise with 75s, 65s, A2 with the 2 of spades, etc. Seriously, this guy has a pretty massive range for this move. He could also have KJ with no spades.

[Slim Pickens]

This is also a classic stop-n-go. That flop is as good as any to push any two into a preflop raiser. I wouldn't discount a total bluff here if you're giving your opponent any credit.

[bawcerelli]

i'd fold preflop.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't forget about the times you're actually ahead already. I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the call, but what is he pushing that you are ahead with ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

a worse flush draw or a gutshot, or a total bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think A3 or A4 is that likely? As for the flush draw I can only think of KJs KQs, QJs. Maybe a stop and go with missed high cards that is probable , but I think more likely is 22+ without a set, or JT+. I guess the only hand in that range your in real bad shape against is AT otherwise easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words he is not discounting a stop and go

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's 6-handed, raising this is very reasonable IMO.

[ilya]

As I said before I would call barring a read, as it is extremely unlikely that you're worse than 43% or so, and it's very possible that you're a moderate-to-huge favorite.

[Bigdaddydvo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's 6-handed, raising this is very reasonable IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm amazed that so many people oppose opening a pot six handed with a raise here UTG w/A9s...what cards are you waiting for? Are you all dumping 88 here too?

That said, folding PF is terribly weak-tight.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

This is only a $27 he could have easily called the (stupid) raise with 75s, 65s, A2 with the 2 of spades, etc. Seriously, this guy has a pretty massive range for this move. He could also have KJ with no spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is also a complete loose LAG idiot. He could have called me with 76s no spades and is pushing (although that I am not sure of, but this opponent I thought it was at least possible).

[DyessMan89]

All you weak-tighties who suggest folding preflop should take your thongs and go have a tea party or something.

6 handed you arent folding A9s, you are raising it. Enough said.

[Pudge714]

Not crazy over the preflop raise. It depends on a lot of things obviously table image, looseness of other pleyers etc. So I think it can be a good play, but can also be a bad play depending on what I said above.

[microbet]

call and win = .21
fold = .0975

.21 * x = .0975
x = .46

If he has a ten you are 40-46% to win depending on suits.

If he has trips you are 25.5% to win.

If he is bluffing you can have up to about 86% to win.

IMHO, his action and his stack make a bluff more likely than trips and his other possible hands make your call OK. So, call on that basis.

The preflop raise is fine IMHO as long as you don't think anyone (SB mainly) is pushing preflop with a fairly wide range. BUT, if SB will push with ANY two or something crazy, you are fine with getting it all in preflop.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
All you weak-tighties who suggest folding preflop should take your thongs and go have a tea party or something.

6 handed you arent folding A9s, you are raising it. Enough said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice to hear this from a guy who's loc is "Folds KK to a lone raise".

Actually the first few posts in this thread had gotten me to doubt the raise. Now I'm glad I was right /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Slim Pickens]

What I'm saying is that it might be a bluff with any two on the flop, not just missed high cards, which is basically what the OP has anyway. The range is larger than just two high cards.

[bawcerelli]

i fold this preflop b/c hero doesn't have enough chips to raise, get called, then play post flop poker. if hero raises with this hand preflop hero should go all in, and the blinds just aren't high enough to justify that IMO.