types of probability

[RedeemerKing]

i was reading some posts and came across some math types i was unfamiliar with. Can someone please explain static probability, conditional probability, and any other branch of probability/math that is helpful in poker.


Thanks

[Vincent Lepore]

"Static" probability is that Branch of probability described by Daniel N. that says "Hey I don't unnerstan it but I know that "math types" use it to determine how to play poker. Which is totally wrong".

"Condidtional Probability" is a disease that Daniel currently has.

All meant in good humor.

Vince /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[RedeemerKing]

wanted to bump this up

[AaronBrown]

"Static" probability is not a type of probability, it just means someone didn't update the probability for subsequent events. For example, the chance that someone is dealt pocket Aces in Hold'em is 1/221. But if someone's hand is shaking as they reraise preflop, the probability goes up to maybe 1 in 10. The latter is called a "conditional" probability because it factors in additional information.

Generally the relevant probability for decision-making is conditional on everything you know. So saying someone is reasoning from static probabilities means they're letting math blind them to the value of observation. This is like someone who read in a Poker book that, say, you should always slowplay a top pair; and therefore does that regardless of situation or opponents, without keeping track of whether it actually works or not.

[SheetWise]

Rational probability includes classical theory and limit-of-relative-frequency theory. Logical theory is non-factual, often used by philosophers, social engineers, and economists -- as well as poker players when considering conditional probability.