Lead or CR this river?

[lennytheduck]

Live 5-5 NL Game in Pittsburgh

Game is remarkably passive, 10 handed, often with 5-7 players seeing the flop for $5. Preflop raises below 10x BB often do little more than eliminate 1 or 2 limpers. I have ~1000 behind and Villain has ~550 at the start of hand.

UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, Villain limps in CO, button limps, SB checks, Hero looks down at the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and checks. 6 to the flop of:

6 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB checks, <font color="red"> </font> Hero bets $25, <font color="black"> </font> two folds, Villain calls $25, button and SB fold.

TURN ($80): 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Hero checks, Villain checks.

At this point I am 90% sure that the villain has clubs, and probably not nut clubs or he would have made a stab at the turn. Anyone like a bet on the turn rather than a check?

RIVER ($80): J /images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="red"> </font> Hero bets $200...

<font color="black"> </font> Obviously I made the overbet b/c of my relative assuredness of what he held. But I also know that he would have bet, probably about 50, had I checked it to him (if he does indeed have the flush). He is the kind of player that has a tough time laying down a made hand but I think there is a decent chance that a river CR could strike some fear into him. Does anyone like a CR all-in here rather than leading out with the overbet?

[hit_the_set]

bet that turn and your river bet will not look like an overbet. I dont see the merit for a C/R on the river given that the game is being played passive.

[Lucky]

bet at least 60 on turn and 150 on river. maybe he raises his flush. Cant expect loose passives to bet your hand for you.

[lennytheduck]

Villain in this hand is actually one the of better players in the game (though that doesn't meant he's any good in the grand scope). He'd been trying to play a big pot with me for a few hours ever since I bluffed him out of a big pot early in the night and showed it. He'd been trying to make moves on me (cold-calling behind me with his big hands) with no success. I changed seats to get position on him and another player of similar attitude a few orbits before this hand.

I think I definitely should have bet the turn in order to increase the likelihood of getting his stack. He might be good enough to fold a lousy club draw on the turn though, which was my thought frame during the hand. For this reason I checked and hoped desperately that he got there on the river. I think a CR of the river might have been warranted as he would have been pot stuck had I bet the turn, but I did not so the overbet seemed the better play.

[LuvDemNutz]

I think not betting the turn is poor.

[gol4pro]

Leading 3/4 of the pot on turn seems awful to me. Villian's fishing for /images/graemlins/club.gif's, so we want to give him "correct" pot odds to fish for them.

I bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn.

Now the river club hits, and you're out of position, and pretty sure he has the flush. Your turn bet looks a lot like a flush draw, and an overbet on the river should certainly signal a flush to him; if he has the A /images/graemlins/club.giforK /images/graemlins/club.gif flush at this point, then prepare to stack him off. Depending on how competent he is, an overbet might fold a small flush-- this would suck.

I say weak lead turn for 25-30$, and bet about 250 on the river.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Leading 3/4 of the pot on turn seems awful to me. Villian's fishing for /images/graemlins/club.gif's, so we want to give him "correct" pot odds to fish for them.

I bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn.

I say weak lead turn for 25-30$.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - bet the same $25 on the turn that you bet on the flop. You want to give him about 4:1 (ie bet 1/3 of pot) on his 4:1 flush draw or 3:1 flush draw + gutshot etc.