Running Bad: A Perspective (LC)

[beset7]

I've been playing for a living for a while now. I have a family of four that I support playing poker while I finish off my last year of law school. I've got great job prospects for after school and I would never consider poker to be a long-term viable career for me. But it has paid the bills and my results have been very solid over the last 6 months.

I've often talked about "running bad" or having a "downswing." This has usually ment that I had a couple days in a row where i dropped 2-3 buyins. Or, a week or so were I'd end each session down a buy-in. I play about 10k hands a week if that puts these swings in perspective for you.

Then, 3 weeks ago after making my mid-september cash out i began what I have now discovered to be a REAL downswing. Not just a few bad sessions, but a legitimate, honest to god dehabilitating downswing. Over 20k hands I am down 12 buyins. I have had:

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Set over set 11 times
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif KK v AA all-in preflop 9 times
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Set v. suited TPTK who hits runner-runner flush 5 times (3 times with very deep stacks that got all-in on the flop or turn)
/images/graemlins/diamond.gif An abormally low number of sets with low PPs

Much of these occurences just happened to come to be when stacks were deep.

I'm sure I could list more statistical improbabilities. Myself and 2 other players that I trust and respect have poured over my pokertracker DB and found no major leaks in my play. There are always things to work on and I learned a lot from this process but I was by no means hemmoraging money through bad play. This is a REAL downswing. If I was a live cash game pro this would amount to a losing year I suppose.

I share this only because I think at times in these forums there is a remarkable naivety concerning what constitutes a real downswing, what type of win-rates are actually sustainable, etc.

On the positive side, i believe i will come out of this a better poker player, with a more marked detachment from results and a clearer understanding of what type of fluctuations are possible in the outer margins of winning and losing.

Unfortunately, too boot, after playing tilt-free poker during this hailstorm of improbabilities, i decided to take a shot at some bigger games (chasing losses. I know, i should probably go to GA) and my bankroll now lays in tatters. Luckily, like any good player should, i have living expenses stored up. But now I have to build up my roll as I can only live on savings for so long.

You guys have helped me immensely over the last year or so and I attribute the 150k hands I played at 8ptb/100 over 3 different limits in large part to that. So, may you all run well! I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough.

[Morrek]

I'm in one myself, and this post does help me put things in perspective. I'm only down 7buyins in 8k hands though(after 30+k with 9bb/100) losing with set vs runner runner straights in pots around 4buyins and the likes several times, AA v QQ on AxxQ etc /images/graemlins/smile.gif but I'm learning how to handle it.

[whittiphil]

Hope it ends soon dude.

[Malachii]

Beset, hang in there my buddy. Hopefully you'll be on your feet again soon.

[Niwa]

stay cool and it will solve itself. gl.

[beset7]

Thanks everyone! Just waiting on my rakeback for september to arrive so I can start bonus whoring and playing 50nl 6max and maybe some LHE and SNGs. Its a trip to have gone from playing fairly high (I was solidly at 2/4 6max back in June when some life bad beats, some tilt and a more conservative bankroll management philosophy put me back down to 1/2 and .5/1 NL) to where I am at today. This job just isn't for the faint of heart.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll be back to the 100 and 200nl games to give swolfe misery soon enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't plan on sticking down here long...I've already doubled what was left of my bankroll /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one?

I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there?

I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them

[beset7]

Well, to some extent or another we all have leaks. This process has helped me identify some spots where i still overplay overpairs, semi-bluff a little too hard with modest draws, etc. But none of that accounts for the downswing. Really, I was TRULY open to the idea that i suck at poker and had just been running good for 150K+ hands and I enlisted others to help objectively determine if this was the case and the consensus is no. I've experience, however statistically unlikely, a genuine downswing of biblical proportions. Atleast I've got one more rakeback payment on the way! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[punter11235]

I hope you will be disciplined enough to rebuild your bankroll in lower games and then come back to your regular ones.
You are right that most ppl here dont realize what real downswing is (see all "vicious" 8xbuyin downswing threads).
I am sure that if you show enough discipline to rebuild your bankroll in lower games and only then come back to your regular ones you will be much better player than you are now. Ive just went through the biggest downswing in my poker career (35days, -10k at the worst moment) which just ended yesterday and I am still not back to my old game.
Grinding it down can really tech you discipline and make you immune to all the bad beats.

I wish you luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[beset7]

Thanks for the reply.

Have you found it difficult to adjust to playing much lower? It's taking a lot for me to play my A game at this point and I'm hoping I settle in soon.

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
Have you found it difficult to adjust to playing much lower?

[/ QUOTE ]

It may be difficult to find motivation. I tried playing 6tables and it worked great. I realize that when 6tabling you cant play normal poker but I treated this as excersise in ABC play and discipline. I can make like 150$/hour doing this - its still less than at 4x600NL but certainly not bad. Even if you decide to play the same number of tables you should still make more than 1/2 of your hourly rate at higher limits so its not very bad.
I think that you should just force yourself to play at lower limits after 2/3 days you will be happy with your winnings again. I think that the most important thing to do is to grind winning weak at lower limits its both ego and bankroll buster. Then reevaluate /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Remember not to take ANY shots at higher limits its just plain stupid when trying to get accustomed to lower stakes.

Best luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one?

I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there?

I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you trying to say online poker is rigged?

A 20K hand downswing is pretty bad but not hugely out of the ordinary and definitely possible.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
If you honestly think you played your A game poker throughout that entire downswing... I would find a new site to play on... Was this accross several sites, or just one?

I cannot imagine being on a downswing for 20k hands, after i played the best possible poker i could have played. Are you absolutely positive there isn't a leak there?

I could see one.. Possibly, *TRY TO stop going all in preflop with KK. However about the other ones, there simply isn't anything you can do about them

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what beset was talking about when he said people dont understand what a true downswing is. Last week in about 3 days I reduced a 1400 bannkroll to about 600 or so. This was basically all from extraordinarily poor luck like the kind beset was talking about in his database. Luckily I was psychologically prepared for since I once I had real nasty run playing shorthanded limit.

beset, keep your chin up, keep your discipline and you will pull through just fine.

[wtfsvi]

That's tough. Hope things will turn around for you.

I wish you better luck, and disciplin to stay low until you're properly bankrolled again.

[Voltron87]

down 12 buy ins over 20k hands?

1. ive never dropped 12 buy ins in a game before dropping down. once you get to 6 or so you really should be taking a break or dropping down.

2. im pretty sure it was more than running bad in this case. it doesnt make you a bad player, it happens to everyone. but you cant think of it as a "downswing" and just feel pity for yourself. think of it as "youre playing awful", thats probably more correct and more condusive to switching it up. using mental stuff like this is the whole ballgame, for me at least.

3. dinnertime, more later

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]

2. im pretty sure it was more than running bad in this case. it doesnt make you a bad player, it happens to everyone. but you cant think of it as a "downswing" and just feel pity for yourself. think of it as "youre playing awful", thats probably more correct and more condusive to switching it up. using mental stuff like this is the whole ballgame, for me at least.


[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate what you are saying and I would love it if this were true. Seriously. It would give me some power of the situation. It would be much easier psychologically if I was spewing and playing bad. Of course I have areas to work on. But seriously. Set over set 11 times over 20k hands? A vast majority with very deep stacks? That alone is enough to cripple someones WR.

But I am trying to get into the begginner's mind frame so I can be open-minded and unclouded by self-pity. If that's all you are saying that I couldn't agree more.

The reason i posted this is really because i felt like I owed it to the forum. Its very easy to read 2+2 and get a very skewed perspective of what poker results look like, even for solid players, over long periods of time. I've been playing poker around the clock sometimes for almost 3 years now. I've played gargantuan numbers of hands at tons of different limits and proved my winningness to myself but none of it has prepared me for this.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
That's tough. Hope things will turn around for you.

I wish you better luck, and disciplin to stay low until you're properly bankrolled again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks dude. I play a bunch with you in the 400nl over the last 6 months. Keep up the good work you are one of my least favorite people to play against /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2. im pretty sure it was more than running bad in this case. it doesnt make you a bad player, it happens to everyone. but you cant think of it as a "downswing" and just feel pity for yourself. think of it as "youre playing awful", thats probably more correct and more condusive to switching it up. using mental stuff like this is the whole ballgame, for me at least.


[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate what you are saying and I would love it if this were true. Seriously. It would give me some power of the situation. It would be much easier psychologically if I was spewing and playing bad. Of course I have areas to work on. But seriously. Set over set 11 times over 20k hands? A vast majority with very deep stacks? That alone is enough to cripple someones WR.

[/ QUOTE ]

theres the victim mindset again...

its pretty deeply engrained, this is going to be tough for you.

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

2. im pretty sure it was more than running bad in this case. it doesnt make you a bad player, it happens to everyone. but you cant think of it as a "downswing" and just feel pity for yourself. think of it as "youre playing awful", thats probably more correct and more condusive to switching it up. using mental stuff like this is the whole ballgame, for me at least.


[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate what you are saying and I would love it if this were true. Seriously. It would give me some power of the situation. It would be much easier psychologically if I was spewing and playing bad. Of course I have areas to work on. But seriously. Set over set 11 times over 20k hands? A vast majority with very deep stacks? That alone is enough to cripple someones WR.

[/ QUOTE ]

theres the victim mindset again...

its pretty deeply engrained, this is going to be tough for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to work on your reading comprehension.

edit: it's amazing how thoroughly you've missed the point of my posts.

[Voltron87]

i really think youre missing my point. whether or not you are running bad, it is never a good mindset to be feeling sorry for yourself. youve gotten unlucky in this stretch, i believe that, but youve probably aggravated it as well with tilt/ sloppy play. (your moving up in limits during a downswing is proof). that happens to everyone, i do it too and try to limit it.

bur regardless of how you are running the mindset of feeling bad for yourself is not very productive. that is the point. in a gambling game like poker it is especially dangerous. when you feel sorry for yourself while you are tilting and playing sloppy, how can anything good come of it?

[pokerjoker]

Yeah...When I run bad I sometimes (as i did today) take shots at the 400 tables....I am ~6-7BB at the 200NL...PT stats got erased...but I am probably -$600-800 at the $400 tables. I feel like I could probably be a winning player there but it would probably help if I wouldnt go there when I feel I have to make my money back....

today at the $400s...A95 came...2 clubs...I have 99..the other guy limped AA pf.. I quit before I could tilt after that thank god.

Anyway, we're probably in the same boat here. GL to ya.

[beset7]

As I said already:

[ QUOTE ]

But I am trying to get into the begginner's mind frame so I can be open-minded and unclouded by self-pity. If that's all you are saying that I couldn't agree more.

[/ QUOTE ]

If anything I actually believe, as I said in my original post, that this experience will lead to growth in my play, discipline and bankroll management skills. Thats one of the reasons I wanted to post this was so I could share that experience and hopefully inform people who I think are incredibly naive about what sort of swings can happen in poker.

I know solid limit hold em players who have had 400xBB downswings. I currently know off the top of my head two very solid high-stakes pros, 10/20 and higher with long-term winning results, who are in the middle of 13 buyin downswings. One of the guys who i've learned TON from with regards to my PLO game took a 25 buyin dump earlier in the year.

My point is not: o my god look at how bad I have it i am so unlucky. As I said before, i have living expenses saved and plenty of time to rebuild once i feel more centered. My point is simply that people should be aware of how violatile this game can be. Especially once you find yourself playing against semi-decent players at least a portion of the time. I for one had no concept of what a real downswing looked like from first hand experience. Now I do.

If your whole point is that i should engage in some mental mind-game where i focus solely on the parts of the process i have responsability for I think I would be missing out on a wonderful lesson. I do agree however that I would be destined to lose if I focused solely on the improbabilities i have experienced. As in all things in life I believe a balanced approach is called for.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

[Voltron87]

I was sort of being unfair on you. It's not because I don't like you or anything, nothing like that at all. That is just how I learned how to deal with this stuff. It was originally from a sports coach, and its something I've translated into other parts of life. I think I overreacted to the bits of your post where you talked about set over set, etc. I did that mostly because when I had a downswing I needed someone to go yell at me like that.

My reaction to you saying "But I am trying to get into the begginner's mind frame so I can be open-minded and unclouded by self-pity. If that's all you are saying that I couldn't agree more." was that it just didnt sound like you were out of a self pity phase.

It's a very valid point how volatile this game can be. I definitely agree. Sometimes you are set up to lose tons of money and theres nothing you can do about it. The first time you get hit by two people hitting a gutshot in a row in 400 BB pots then it hits you, holy crap this game is insane. I think that winrates are mostly useless, I think two players comparing hands over 50K can just be a test of who's running better.

It sounds like you've learned something from this. You've also got living expenses put away and thats great. The first time I really got screwed over I didn't, and although I'm a young kid with no one else to support it's still something that changes the way you do business.

[beset7]

I really appreciate your perspective on what you were getting from my posts and its helped me do some good, timely self-examination. God knows I've poured over the database enough its time to let go and do the internal work.