KQ BB Short handed 1 spot from FT

This was from the 30 + 3 last night at UB. Started with over 500 entries, we were down to 11. I (hero) was in 7th place and Villian was in 11th. Would you call in this situation?


Hand #8861625-262 at Fri10pmA-009 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
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Started at 08/Oct/05 01:30:49

Villian is at seat 0 with 23610.
Hero is at seat 1 with 43190.
tom812 is at seat 2 with 39460.
chillinscott is at seat 3 with 62540.
ramandjam is at seat 6 with 42375.
Rafone is at seat 7 with 110610.
The button is at seat 7.

Villian posts ante (200).
Hero posts ante (200).
tom812 posts ante (200).
chillinscott posts ante (200).
ramandjam posts ante (200).
Rafone posts ante (200).
Villian posts the small blind of 1000.
Hero posts the big blind of 2000.

Villian: -- --
Hero: Kd Qc
tom812: -- --
chillinscott: -- --
ramandjam: -- --
Rafone: -- --

Pre-flop:

tom812 folds. chillinscott folds. ramandjam folds.
Rafone folds. Villian goes all-in for 23410.
Hero (?)

[betgo]

Hero calls. You are only significantly behind AK, AQ, and QQ-AA. It is likely you are behind Ax or a pp, but ahead with pot odd. Villain could easily have Kx and something else you are ahead of.

Since the push is from the button, I call. If it was from early position, I fold. Also if you have a read the pusher is playing tight or scared, I fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call in this situation?

Hero (?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Answer the question with another question. What were the stacks like at the other table?

You can't win the tournament at this point. But you could get kicked off the FT, which means you would have no shot to win.

If there is a player or two on the other table who is very close to busting out, then I definitely fold and wait. You might give the guy the idea that he can steal from you again, only next time he may try it when you are stronger.

If you are considering calling, and throwing caution of your current position to the wind, then it becomes purely mathematical computation.
- If you call and lose, then you are crippled, having maybe only another orbit or two before being forced into very loose pushing strategy.
- If you call and win, then at best you only gain a couple of positions, albeit with the added advantage of now being at the FT for busting the bubble.

But let's take the other poster's assumption that you are facing at least an Ace and possibly a little pair. The pot is offering you 1.18:1, which is approximately equal to a 54:46 race.

Assuming you are behind and taking the "46" side of the race, then what is your situation?

Strange as it sounds, you have the worst of it if the opponent has an Ace (roughly 57:42 at best for you). The best you can do against a little pair is roughly 53:47, which is essentially break even in the long run.

Based only on this, any call with these possible holdings is a loser over the long run, but only by a little. You also have the added expectation of guaranteed double your money if you win (10th place minimum vs. 11th), so that is a consideration as well.

So it is a matter of risk versus reward. You win, you're in good shape for a nice payday. You lose, you may be in for just minimum money.

I gotta believe someone on the other table is a lot closer to busting out, and if so I fold and give the guy the steal.

But at the same time, I remember the situation and if the guy tries it again (presumably when we are both at the FT), then maybe this time I fire back because the risk may be smaller and the reward may be greater.

[ZeroPointMachine]

Villian is the short stack. He has a monster stack on his immediate right. If the big stack is any good Villian gets very few open opportunities. Everybody is tight and trying to make the final table. There is a 25% bump to Villian's stack sitting in the pot and it's folded to him in the SB. If I'm Villian my range is exactly any 2.

KQ is a clear favorite against any two. If you call and lose you're far from dead. Calling with KQ might also keep the others off your blinds in the future(win or lose).

I think it is a clear call.