odds???

[Ray_bob]

what are the odds i have the best hand here?


(Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: raystay ( $26.63 )
Seat 7: EasyCompanE ( $25.25 )
Seat 8: XbalthazarX ( $28.75 )
Seat 9: Judge_Bimbo ( $19.75 )
Seat 5: milpey ( $31 )
Seat 10: thalweg ( $32.50 )
Seat 3: kpswings ( $26.25 )
Seat 6: Vivienvivi ( $24.75 )
Seat 1: LPC54 ( $10 )
Seat 4: Joemcg3 ( $24.50 )
Judge_Bimbo posts small blind [$0.25].
raystay posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to raystay [ 7c 7d ]
kpswings calls [$0.50].
Joemcg3 calls [$0.50].
milpey folds.
Vivienvivi folds.
EasyCompanE folds.
XbalthazarX folds.
Judge_Bimbo calls [$0.25].
raystay checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 3h, 6c ]

[KJL]

Well, the hands that beat you are any hand with a King as well as 66, 63, and 33.
Chance that he has a king is:
(3*46)/C(47,2)=~13%
Chances he has 66 or 33:
2*C(3,2)/C(47,2)=~.6%
Chances he has 63:
3*3/C(47,6)=~.8%
So the chnace that you are beat is ~14.4% So you will have the best hand ~85.6% of the time.

[Ray_bob]

thx
im still trien to learn how to figure that stuff out

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the hands that beat you are any hand with a King as well as 66, 63, and 33.
Chance that he has a king is:
(3*46)/C(47,2)=~13%
Chances he has 66 or 33:
2*C(3,2)/C(47,2)=~.6%
Chances he has 63:
3*3/C(47,6)=~.8%
So the chnace that you are beat is ~14.4% So you will have the best hand ~85.6% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea how to an analysis this complex (or even if it's worthwhile) but I want to point that your analysis is a long way from the true figure. This is because

- There are 3 opponents seeing the flop, not one.
- 10 people were dealt pocket cards, not three, and the rubbish hands like 93 have folded, whereas AK, KQ, KJ, maybe Kx are very likely to call. So you're dealing with a pool of 9 potential K hands, not 3.
- The higher pocket pairs 88-AA weren't included.

These three factors shift the numbers WAY down, probably well below 50% odds of having the best hand.

[KJL]

Woops I ddin't realize that there were 3 people seeing the flop and I forgot all about AA-88. But I wasn't saying he would only play three hands with Kings. I included all possible hands with a King. Regardless I have no clue how to do this calculation now.

I'm talking about the fact that ten people are dealt random cards, but some fold hands like 95, 42, J3, etc and call with Kx, Ax and pairs. This means that 3 people who called preflop are more likely than random chance to have Ax, Kx, or a pair (which makes the calculation tougher).

As for OP's question, I've seen a table several times which shows the % chance that someone has an A or K when an A or K flops. It was supposedly based on real data, and tabulated no. of players seeing flop vs chance of A or K. Can't find it though.

Calculating pot odds and knowing probability of catching cards you need is essential. But I think trying to calculate the probability of what someone else might or might not have could get you in trouble, because you never know what someone is going to hold with or lay down. Your best bet is to develop methods of testing the waters. If you have three besides yourself in the hand after the flop. If everyone stays or more importantly someone raises, then chances are at least one of the 3 have a K. If you are playing with people who know what they are doing, then they shouldn't be playing unless they have a nice pair or higher cards. However at this limit, you never can tell. Again making it difficult to try to calculate the probability of what someone else has in their hand.

You can use probability to determine the possibility that someone has something in their hand, but only before the first round of betting. That is no one folds. Once you had the human factor into it, no dice.