$22 - Lots of dead money, push TT from SB?

[pergesu]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

UTG+1 (t845)
MP1 (t725)
MP2 (t1295)
MP3 (t775)
CO (t1310)
Button (t710)
Hero (t785)
BB (t785)
UTG (t770)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t60, Button calls t60, Hero pushes


Ilya and I are going back and forth on this one online. He says calling puts me in good position relative to the raiser when I flop a set. I say the pot is 25% of my stack, way too much to pass up. Also I flop a set one time in eight, whereas I should often take this down preflop, and am usually a small favorite when called, though sometimes I'm up against a bigger or smaller pair.

So first I'd like some thoughts on that, and then I'd like to know what you'd do if the button had folded instead of called. That makes cuts the pot preflop from 200 to 140, so it's much less enticing.

[Deuce2High]

I would fold.

Edit: But FWIW it's close. I can see myself pushing JJ here, possibly (but I still might fold), and definatly a great move with QQ. I don't play in 800 chip tournaments, but I think I would play a lot tighter preflop, in general.

[flyingmoose]

This has been a pretty standard push for me. I loves me some T200 in dead money -- and at the 22s I get called by underpairs and weak aces way more often than makes sense.

[Sciolist]

Yes, I was writing a reply saying "yeh, but you'll be called by weak aces all the time..." then I realised that was a good thing. I guess that's why I'm on a bad run at the moment :]

So yes, good push, all you have to worry about is the BB holding a stronger hand, or MP1 calling with something like AQ. Of course, MP1 could always have something good here, nothing wrong with him playing AA or KK with that raise, but you're going to be right often enough for this to make you chips. It's not really a +200 chip move though, because of that.

I push this all day long at the 11s.

[runner4life7]

first glance I didnt like it but after seeing how much is in the pot i actually like it a lot.

[Cactus Jack]

I understand the thought behind it, but I pass. Not even sure I'd even call and see the flop. You're behind, no doubt about it. You're only plus is you've not invested much time playing this one, and can easily start up another. No way you're taking this down without a call or two or three. Not at this level with these bozos. You may win this one, but it's a bad habit, man. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

There's a reason old proverbs are old proverbs. They're usually right. "You can't win a tourney in the first round, but you sure can lose it."

Imho, this is pushing pushing too far.

CJ

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
You're behind, no doubt about it

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? Behind whom?

[Sciolist]

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[ QUOTE ]
You're behind, no doubt about it

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? Behind whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

The field I guess, but that's exactly what I thought too...

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're behind, no doubt about it

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? Behind whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Eight Ball? Your balls? The curve?

A guy in EP raises 4X. He's got to have something, don't you suspect? Three calls, (assuming I remember correctly.) Given the donk factor, there's still got to be some strength there somewhere. I truly do not know what you're thinking, really. I've had great faith in your play up to this point, honestly believing your a far superior player to myself. This one has me definitely scratching my head. With all due respect, you don't think this is too freakin' loose?

CJ

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're behind, no doubt about it

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? Behind whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Eight Ball? Your balls? The curve?

A guy in EP raises 4X. He's got to have something, don't you suspect? Three calls, (assuming I remember correctly.) Given the donk factor, there's still got to be some strength there somewhere. I truly do not know what you're thinking, really. I've had great faith in your play up to this point, honestly believing your a far superior player to myself. This one has me definitely scratching my head. With all due respect, you don't think this is too freakin' loose?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure the initial raise is any suited ace or king, or two broadway cards (and obviously better hands like pairs). The callers could be anything...little pairs, connectors, K3o..

Basically the only person who's even suggested they have a real hand is the initial raiser (I'm pretty sure the gap concept does NOT apply to $22 donks). The only other hand I could really be afraid of is JJ, which perhaps one of the callers opted to flat call, cause QQ+ almost certainly reraises.

By your reasoning, I ought to have massive FE here, given that I showed so much strength by pushing after all this action. So much that I might even fold jacks or queens. (btw I don't think any of that is true, but it ought to be in line with your reasoning)

Maybe I'm behind here, maybe not, but I get called by 77 just as often as I run into AA, sometimes I pick up the pot preflop which is huge, and others I race with plenty of dead money.

[ QUOTE ]
I've had great faith in your play up to this point, honestly believing your a far superior player to myself.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's funny, cause I have 0 faith in my own play. Really, ask anyone on my AIM buddy list.

[Cactus Jack]

[quote
By your reasoning, I ought to have massive FE here, given that I showed so much strength by pushing after all this action. So much that I might even fold jacks or queens. (btw I don't think any of that is true, but it ought to be in line with your reasoning)

Maybe I'm behind here, maybe not, but I get called by 77 just as often as I run into AA, sometimes I pick up the pot preflop which is huge, and others I race with plenty of dead money.

[ QUOTE ]
I've had great faith in your play up to this point, honestly believing your a far superior player to myself.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's funny, cause I have 0 faith in my own play. Really, ask anyone on my AIM buddy list.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you lead the league in posting interesting hand discussions. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'm perfectly willing to admit I am not fully conversant with FE, but we definitely aren't on the same page here. I think you have absolutely 0 FE since I don't think you'll get all 4 to fold. I don't know how TT compares to AA as far as %, but I do know that your winning % goes down with the number of players against you goes up. I suppose we could do a breakdown of what each might have and what you're chances are against one or all, but I've had a case of insomnia from last night and I feel almost hungover. Aside from the fact my math sucks. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I just think this is a WAY loose bet. For every 77 you beat there's some donk that will call your all in with KJ. You're ahead, but this is Party after all.

I'm also thinking another way, one in which many don't agree with me, I think. I think the better player has increasing chances of winning as the blinds increase. If you have two options--autofold for 4 Levels or play loose for 4 levels--you're chances of winning are no worse than equal, if, IF you win a number of chips with the loose play. If you LOSE a significant number of chips, you're chances decrease dramatically as you can no longer work the donks that are left the same as you could with a starting stack of chips.

I know of no way of proving or disproving my ideas, but I feel very strongly that the loss of chips has a much greater impact on your chances to win than the same increase in chips. 400 chips at Level 5 is far, far worse than 1200 chips is far, far better with regard to your chances to win. I know of no other way to explain this.

Many insist I'm weak/tight. I am the latter but not the former. I'm a sorta successful ring game player, where I'm absolutely TAG. I play the same game in the first few levels of a SNG. I'm an Ultra-aggressor later on, if you are familiar with autoratings in PT. This is not a TAG play, in my opinion.

If you wouldn't do it in a ring game where you can rebuy if you get stacked, then you absolutely should not do it in any type of tournament.

Does any of this ring true, or am I completely off track?

CJ

[Sciolist]

I think this is basically a disagreement on how often you're going to be called here by a better hand than yours. I think it's infrequent - very infrequent.

Only the original raiser is likely ahead of you, and he's going to find himself in a tough spot unless he has a massive hand. He's seen his raise called in other spots, and someone then go and re-raise him all in.

The other callers have progressively worse hands. If any of them had something good, they'd be reraising. Therefore, the chances are excellent that they're passing to this kind of play.

[pergesu]

Boy let some donk call me with KJ - I hate coin flips early on, but pushing into one is way better than calling into one, and as the title points out there's lots of dead money up for grabs. I'll gladly flip with him if that's the case.

auto-folding the first four levels would be disastrous to your ROI. I'm not going to get into this in this thread, because there was one on this very subject about a week ago, but in my opinion the people who suggest they can beat the game for a decent amount without playing any hands early on are seriously delluding themselves.

[ QUOTE ]
If you wouldn't do it in a ring game where you can rebuy if you get stacked, then you absolutely should not do it in any type of tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]
I make lots and lots of plays in a tournament that I never would in a ring game, for a variety of reasons. The obvious cases are bubble pushes/calls, which you would play differently from a cash game because your equity is not directly proportional to the chips in your stack.

Another way I deviate from this (and I get lots of flack for it) is by giving opponents free/cheap cards, simply because if they do hit their 5-outers on me, I've only lost my buyin and not everything in front of me.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is basically a disagreement on how often you're going to be called here by a better hand than yours. I think it's infrequent - very infrequent.

Only the original raiser is likely ahead of you, and he's going to find himself in a tough spot unless he has a massive hand. He's seen his raise called in other spots, and someone then go and re-raise him all in.

The other callers have progressively worse hands. If any of them had something good, they'd be reraising. Therefore, the chances are excellent that they're passing to this kind of play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dead on, I think. The only real hand to be concerned about is the initial raiser's, so the real discussion here is does he have a pp bigger than tens? A smaller PP, overcards, one higher one lower...? I don't think it's fair to peg his hand as a monster at this point, we simply don't have enough information.

But we can assume at this point that he's a standard $22er and his hand most definitely is not limited to high pocket pairs.

[Cactus Jack]

No, typically this would be AKo. Typically, he'll call. The race is on.

Perg, we definitely are playing a different game. Good on you, mate.

Best wishes,

CJ

[Sciolist]

I don't think that you can put MP1 on such an exact hand. You can put him on a range that certainly includes AK, but AK isn't even neccessarily going to call. If it does, I'd rather have the 55% end of the stick though, especially with dead money in the pot - it'd be +ev even if you were the 45% end.

You can expand the range significantly, and the range which would now call an all-in with those calls behind him is only a small proportion of that.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
No, typically this would be AKo. Typically, he'll call. The race is on.

Perg, we definitely are playing a different game. Good on you, mate.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't want to get your money in 57/43 with 25% of your stack in dead money?

fwiw, durron asked me to look over his HH because he "needed a LAG's opinion" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

even less fwiw, inital raiser called with AJo, which was one of the hands I thought I had FE against

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, typically this would be AKo. Typically, he'll call. The race is on.

Perg, we definitely are playing a different game. Good on you, mate.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't want to get your money in 57/43 with 25% of your stack in dead money?

fwiw, durron asked me to look over his HH because he "needed a LAG's opinion" /images/graemlins/smile.gif

even less fwiw, inital raiser called with AJo, which was one of the hands I thought I had FE against

[/ QUOTE ]

Line 1. Not if it's MY money that's dead. /images/graemlins/smile.gif While I like the percentages, I'm pissed if I lose when I know I can slide up to the bubble most of the time, and bust it often enough. Just don't see the point in gambling early, when I'm a favorite later.

Line 2. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Line 3. Exactly why I said you had 0 FE. Some [censored]'s going to call you with AJ. If this had been Level 5, then I'm with ya. Just tooo early for me to be risking it all.

The wonderful thing about THE is there are so many ways to play the same game. You're good enough to play LAG. I'm definitely not. As long as we both end up with rising bankrolls, neither of us is wrong. I guess you can say, "there's more than one way to gut a fish."

CJ

[jeffraider]

I make this play quite a bit and it's a big winner for me so far at the $22s. Like Perg said, getting the money against AK is really good in this spot with 200 sitting out there.

Fold is probabaly the best line, followed by call, followed by reraising to 200~ and pushing on a non AKQ flop.
worst move of all is the all in.

Take it or leave it.

[john smith]

I'd rather call here and take a flop, but I don't mind pushing here. I don't think you'll take this pot down preflop too often but you'll get called by smaller pairs and weak aces enough to make this profitable.