1/2 6max. - turned set completes FD

[vanHelsing]

~200 hands against villain.
She is LAG (somwhere around 80/25/3), a bit tricky and a bit of a calling station.
She sees me as TAG, she knows I raise a lot of hands in late position and that I am almost always auto-C-betting when HU.
I have seen her CR a baby FD once all-in with a 60BB stack. I can't remember ever having seen a massive overbet from her.

To the hand:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($287.25)
BB ($137.85)
UTG ($177.30)
Hero ($194)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, UTG calls $16.

Turn: ($55) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($55) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG calls $151.30 (All-In), Hero?


How is my turn check behind?
Fold the river?

EDIT: btw, I'll stack her 100% of the times, when the board pairs and she has a flush.

[soah]

Very easy turn bet.

[TreyOfLight]

I don't see a case for calling the river. You have little invested, are getting a bad price on a call and beating only a bluff.

You don't know if she's betting because she has the flush, or because you handed over the betting lead on fourth. I would bet the turn, to keep pressure on hands I still beat.

[trumpman84]

My first thought was to fold because what is a normal person going to call you with on this flop, then overbet the river. This is suicide for just a pair of kings, and there are no other missed draws so she almost has to have a flush. Then I saw that you had her read as a lag, so that might turn this into a call. A LAG might do this with air if she thinks you cotinuation bet too much especially after showing weakness on the turn . I've even seen, heaven forbid, aces played like this. Still, a close decision, you have to be right about 75% of the time to be a profitable decision so you have to put her on a bluff a good percentage of the time, but that's what LAGS do..they overplay hands and bluff, so it's not unreasonable to think this is a call.

EDIT: A set of 2's or 6's could also be played this way because she can be reasonably sure you do not have a flush.

[vanHelsing]

Good thoughts, but she is not that tricky to push this one on air. She definetly likes her hand. I'd say this is at least a set...

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain why? I thought this was a pretty good turn check. Makes about the same money against one pair, lose some against two pair probably, although this player might move two pair here with a frequency that makes it tough whether to call or not. Obv. good check against a flush. What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

[emil3000]

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain why? I thought this was a pretty good turn check. Makes about the same money against one pair, lose some against two pair probably, although this player might move two pair here with a frequency that makes it tough whether to call or not. Obv. good check against a flush. What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

EDIT: Obv. the one heart hands should pay. But it's somewhat similar there, they might move in too, and if you don't know how often they do so, it's tough to know whether to call or not. So it's not all advantages.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you give villain against which this is a good bet?

[/ QUOTE ]A wide one: she is a loose calling station, after all. No way does she have the flush often enough to warrant a check.

[soah]

Because it's highly likely that your hand is good, and 10 cards on the river will either cost you the pot or cost you action.

[dvo352]

I think you should have bet the turn. It was an easy bet like Soah said. You have 2 advantages there. You can bluff the flush if she doesn't have it and you still have outs even if the bet is called. In the case of a reraise shove then you fold. You checking after her told her that you didnt have the flush. If shes a lag and she likes to bet then you basicly gave up the pot if the board didn't pair. Good fold on the river though. Theres no reason to gamble there. Knowing that she knows you don't have the flush might warrant a call since she can be betting with anything but you just don't know where you stand. Too many hands beat you. Hell she could have hit that gutshot with the 7.

[vanHelsing]

I think my statement of "she's a bit of a calling station" was overvalued by most of the repliers, probably I should have been clearer.
I did not say she is a complete CS. In fact she doesn't call down with TPNK hands no matter what, she just calls more than the typical 2+2-player would. Betting the turn will most probably make her fold any hand we are ahead of, except maybe TPTK or better or a hand containing Qh-Ah.
Turn card is an action killer even for her standards and she might even fold the hands mentioned. TPTK with a /images/graemlins/heart.gif she might call or might shove, i can't tell. A flush would be definetly a CR all-in from her, where I prolly have to fold.
When I said "a bit tricky", this means she might C/push the turn with pair and draw. She is not capable of pushing the river on air. This push is for value, prolly flush, but who knows her crude standards. With a medium hand she will kind of block river 1/2-1 PSB.

So I see the turn card as an action killer and risk getting outdrawn with 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, get some additional money from her on river if I'm ahead and will break her, if she has the flush and river one of 10 FH or better cards.
Does this change things?

[djoyce003]

This river bet reeks of the donkey who missed the checkraise on the turn, now wants to try to make up for it by overbetting the river.

I don't call this bet unless i've seen this person overbet the pot on the river and get caught with a stone bluff. I think she has the flush way too many times to make this a profitable call.

I probably make a bet at the turn here....if I get checkraised I fold unless i'm getting odds to draw at the FH. If they don't checkraise the turn, but call, I check behind on the river if I can.

[emil3000]

FWIW, this is the kind of opponent I assumed when I said I liked the check. Admittedly against an opponent that would call with tpnk, this should be bet. I am still not convinced about this opponent.

Soah, you bet this turn against someone like theworstplayer, who is 25/13 and very tricky? Against a tight unimaginative player?
Would be nice if you countered the arguments made by me and VanHelsing, cause I think they're valid.

A turn bet may have made a river decision easier. I think you have to fold the river.

Well, you seem to have a pretty strong read on villain; so why would she move in against an opponent who's shown extreme weakness on the turn? Wouldn't she be more likely to value bet her flush?

[amoeba]

I like the turn check.

to those that recommend bet, what do you do with AK no heart on the turn? still bet?

do you guys always bet when the flush turns? I think longterm thats a very bad move.

and I fold this river because I think its a missed checkraise.

[emil3000]

Yay, someone who agrees with me!

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the turn check.

to those that recommend bet, what do you do with AK no heart on the turn? still bet?

do you guys always bet when the flush turns? I think longterm thats a very bad move.

and I fold this river because I think its a missed checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the river fold based on how the hand played.

As to when I bet the turn....

I bet the turn here because a King flopped. If no King or Ace had flopped and i got a call on this board, I'd assume it's the flush draw most of the time. But on this board, I'd assume he's got the king before I'd assume he has the flush. I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand. I'm also doing it for information though, because unless they are a tricky player, they aren't raising this turn bet without the flush i think....he isn't raising a naked king here....maybe if he has the ace of hearts with their king, but this player isn't that good so I don't think they are that tricky.

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
The following is far from accurate, but let's say she has king 1/3 of the time. Let's say she has 1 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in her hand 4/9 of the time and an additional /images/graemlins/heart.gif will river 9/44 of the time.
Cobined this is 3%.
3% of the time we are protecting a 55$ pot. Is this really worth giving away substantial equity on a huge pot in case she allready flushed? Not to talk about additional riverequity from a K if no heart rivers.

[BobboFitos]

fold

[BobboFitos]

yeah, well played.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
The following is far from accurate, but let's say she has king 1/3 of the time. Let's say she has 1 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in her hand 4/9 of the time and an additional /images/graemlins/heart.gif will river 9/44 of the time.
Cobined this is 3%.
3% of the time we are protecting a 55$ pot. Is this really worth giving away substantial equity on a huge pot in case she allready flushed? Not to talk about additional riverequity from a K if no heart rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense but you are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY underestimating the amount of time he has a king here......he has to have a reason for calling on the flop and i think it's closer to 50/50 on king flush draw, maybe even more towards the king side because people call preflop raises with kings more than they do with sc's.

[vanHelsing]

She instapushed the river, I instafolded. Just smelled like a flush, which missed a turn CR.

FWIW, this was the conversation after the hand:

Me: nice bet
Her: 3 of a kind
Me: sure
Her : 77
Her: in my hand
Her: flush i was afraid
Me: well played
Her: thanks

[vanHelsing]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting the turn here because I might be ahead of a king here, but he could have a heart kicker so i'm protecting my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
The following is far from accurate, but let's say she has king 1/3 of the time. Let's say she has 1 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in her hand 4/9 of the time and an additional /images/graemlins/heart.gif will river 9/44 of the time.
Cobined this is 3%.
3% of the time we are protecting a 55$ pot. Is this really worth giving away substantial equity on a huge pot in case she allready flushed? Not to talk about additional riverequity from a K if no heart rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense but you are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY underestimating the amount of time he has a king here......he has to have a reason for calling on the flop and i think it's closer to 50/50 on king flush draw, maybe even more towards the king side because people call preflop raises with kings more than they do with sc's.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe, but she might just test the waters with a flop call with any piece of the board (remember she knows I am almost auto C-betting).
If she is really 50% to have a K, well, then we are talking about a 5% scenario instead of 3 %.

EDIT: and the more often she has a K, the more often we have added value on the river...

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the turn check.

to those that recommend bet, what do you do with AK no heart on the turn? still bet?

do you guys always bet when the flush turns? I think longterm thats a very bad move.

and I fold this river because I think its a missed checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is very little reason to assume your opponent has made a flush in this hand. Letting them go runner runner with 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is just sickening.

And anyone who folds any hands worse than second set to a second barrel heads up does not come anywhere near my definition of "slightly calling station." It would be closer to "rock"

Assuming she had (i) the flush, (ii) the set she claimed (unlikely?), where was the value in her river push?

Just trying to understand how bad her play was, or if I'm missing something.