I bet against Annika tomorrow

[Clarkmeister]

I didn't bet on the "will/won't make the cut" bet because the line moved from -340 to -500 in the last few days. So I sat out and watched today. As it stands right now she would miss the cut in a tie for 73rd of the 113 players.

They posted a number of 73.5 O/U with the over at even. I bet the over. My reasons:

1. She is not going to hit every fairway 2 days in a row.
2. The course will be essentially a totally different track tomorrow. Just as she gets adjusted, it totally will change on her. It will be faster, tighter and harder.
3. While she was able to be the first one off today and stay within herself, the opposite is the case tomorrow. She will be painfully aware of her competition and by the time she tees off, she will actually have a cut number to shoot for. I think this will affect her gameplan.
4. Teeing off both last, and on #1 vs #10 work against her. The greens will be spiked up, she starts on the more difficult 9 and the course will be at its fastest and firmest all day.

Considering how well things went for her today, it sure seems highly probable she shoots 3 strokes worse tomorrow.

Feedback welcome.

[davidross]

Logic and reason tell me you are right. I watched the entire round today, and except for the flat stick she was perfect. Pretty hard to improve on it.

But... I think the champions heart will come through and she will shoot 70 and make the cut.

[John Ho]

Yeah but what if she actually makes her puts tomorrow?

My understanding is that her accuracy today is nothing out of the ordinary for her. I would expect her to play better tomorrow.

[Clarkmeister]

"Yeah but what if she actually makes her puts tomorrow?

My understanding is that her accuracy today is nothing out of the ordinary for her. I would expect her to play better tomorrow. "

Good point. But her putting today was also nothing out of the ordinary for her.

[Inthacup]

3. While she was able to be the first one off today and stay within herself, the opposite is the case tomorrow. She will be painfully aware of her competition and by the time she tees off, she will actually have a cut number to shoot for. I think this will affect her gameplan.

While I agree with you that the course may cause her to shoot over 73, I disagree that it will be because of nerves or a disruption of her gameplan. I'm sure it's not easy to play in a men's tourney like this, I'm also sure that it wasn't easy to play in the final round of the 4(I think) majors that she has won. She's got the nerves to play under stressful circumstances and I don't think the added press is going to affect her game at all.

Also, she missed A LOT of puts yesterday. If her putter is on, then she won't have to hit 13 of 14 fairways and 14 of 18 greens. That being said, the over under on the 73.5 is a much closer bet than the 76.5 offered yesterday. I still have to go with the under.

[andyfox]

She's won 43 tournaments, she must be able to putt.

[Clarkmeister]

Sorenstam tied for 39th on the LPGA last season in putts per round, with a 29.66. That same average on the PGA Tour would have ranked her 118th in 2002. And that's on far easier greens with far easier pin placements, as she herself mentioned yesterday.

[Jimbo]

"She's won 43 tournaments, she must be able to putt."

Yes I am sure she putts quite well for a woman. LOL

[andyfox]

Well, apparently not that well, as Clarkmeister informs us she was only 39th on the tour last year. I imagine she's on more greens than most anyone else, so she'd probably have a slightly higher putting average because of that.

I watched her a bit this morning, she was struggling with all aspects of her game; in fact, her putting looked like the best part of her game on the front nine.

[John Ho]

Her short game needs a lot of work. I can chip better than her and I am a rank amateur. Her putting speed seemed to be way off for much of the day as well which caused her to 3 putt way too often. Perhaps she has not been pushed to improve enough playing against women.

They said in her whole career she has only missed 1 cut. I think, though, the gap between her game and the men will improve the women's tour as the younger women players will seek to narrow that gap. After all, Tiger Woods appearance on the tour caused all the players who wanted to be competitive to get better as well. I was astounded at all poor chipping she showed today. That has nothing to do with strength or power.

There's no reason not to believe at some point there will be women who can contend vs. the best men players. Just not Sorenstam.