KQs vs flop checkraise

Should I be protecting my hand on the turn vs a single heart or 3 outer? Opponent is 45/22/2.5, he has me covered. ~$200/$400ish stacks.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$200) <font color="#0000FF">(5 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $4.00.

Flop: ($13.00) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30.00</font>, Hero calls $20.00.

Turn: ($73.00) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($73.00) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $25.00</font>, Hero calls $25.00.

Final Pot: $123.00.

[mudbuddha]

he's loose but not that crazy... he raised you pretty aggressively, unless hes shown alot of aggression with draws and the sort, then i would have to bet to protect, i wouldn't wanna give them a runner runner for that cheap..

although 2.5 isnt very aggressive post flop.. i would put him on stronger hand than yours. i dont think he likes the flush. but im usually wrong

So do you fold on the flop to his checkraise? That just seems weak. I was planning on calling the flop and folding to a heart turn + bet, but the way it played out I decided to go for a cheap showdown.

[amoeba]

looking at villain's stats this is ok.

really need a range on his flop checkraise though.

[pokernicus]

I think he's more scared of the heart flush. Especially since he checks the turn. (Perhaps he thought you were semi-bluffing on flop, and made your draw.) On the other hand, if he actually has the flush, I would think he should be betting on the turn to build the pot.

I don't think he is bluffing on the river -- especially since he probably thinks you have *some* kind of hand for calling the flop raise. (And it's unlikely you fold the river for a $25 bet in this case.)

Once you check behind him on the turn, he can safely guess that you don't have a heart flush; so he has the green light to value bet the river (e.g., with TPTK).

If you were planning to call a $25 bet on the river, then a turn probe bet might be worth considering here to see where you stand. If he calls, you can justifiably worry that TP2K is no good. But, you can also pick up a bit of fold equity, since he might even muck something like AQ.

With his LAGgish stats I was more afraid of getting outplayed on the turn than giving a free card, this might be wrong. I really don't see AQ folding, but I don't have much experience in these games either. Will have to think about that. If I do check the turn, I give him a chance to bluff the river with absolutely nothing when he misses, or may be value bet something like JJ.

Turns out he had QdJd and MHIG this time. This then kind of makes me wonder, should I be minraising what looks to be blocking bets from bad players if they'll call with worse hands than what I hold, and at what frequency? Or does it just make life simpler to call and have the hand over with. Not in this situation in particular, but I'd be tempted to if I had AQ or something stronger, like a weak two pair or so.

[pokernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see AQ folding

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that it's not especially likely, but it does happen sometimes - especially if the board is scary and you're showing aggression. I think people tread carefully with TPTK since it's an easy to overplay it and walk right into something stronger. In this case, the flush is the only thing he might be worried about (the board looks otherwise innocuous).

I'm surprised a little by the QdJd - I was thinking he had AQ. I am unsure whether his river bet was a good idea. In some sense, it all the more falls into the character of where the bet will only be called by better hands.