2nd nuts on the turn, what to do on the river

[Yads]

No reads on villian, What do you guys do on the river?

Paradise $50 PL Omaha

Dealt to hero in the BB Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

4 limps, SB completes, Hero checks.

flop is 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
checked around

turn is 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SB checks, Hero bets the pot, folded to SB who calls.

river is Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif
SB instantly bets the pot, hero?

What do you guys do in this situation?

[kurto]

I feel like... with no reads, its just a guess.

How about... how was the guys stack? Barring no other information, I'll give a guy with a huge stack a little more credit then I would to someone who has a 1/4 buyin.

personally I would fold though I play very tight. He wasn't staying in for a flush draw, may have a set, but just as likely to have a straight equal or higher than yours. My guess is that he had a 9 straight but now with the added bonus of a free flush draw.

Without knowing anything else, I probably fold. He is more likely to have you beaten or tied than for you to be beating him.

[ QUOTE ]
My guess is that he had a 9 straight but now with the added bonus of a free flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

And where would be hoping to hit his flush, six-street? In the van down by the river?

[illegit]

If he has T8 would he not likely raise the turn? He hits his gin card then check-calls? He could concievably be waiting for a safe river card, but with the nuts on the turn most would pot it or check-raise you there. I think this is a call.

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has T8 would he not likely raise the turn? He hits his gin card then check-calls? He could concievably be waiting for a safe river card, but with the nuts on the turn most would pot it or check-raise you there. I think this is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be true in the bigger games, but in the smaller games you will find players waiting for the nuts on the river before putting in a bet or raise.

I would call here, at least until I got to know the player better.

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like... with no reads, its just a guess.

How about... how was the guys stack? Barring no other information, I'll give a guy with a huge stack a little more credit then I would to someone who has a 1/4 buyin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had about 160 BB stack, he had something like 60 BB when the hand started. No reads on that specific player, but this was the $50 game on paradise, which is the lowest game available there. So the table is very good.

First, 6 people saw that turn so someone will have a straight more than 50% of the time. Making multiple pot bets without one here is suicide.

You already represented a made straight and he called and now he's betting into you. There are only 3 possabilities : he has a 10 straight, a 9 straight, or he's an idiot (or perhaps a genius who has somehow put you on a 9 straight).

If my math is correct there's about $9 in the pot when villain wakes up and pots it.

Ignoring the last one for now, there are 9 ways he could have you tied and 12 he could have you beat. Therefore, a call nets you $4.5 9 times and costs $9 12 times for an average of just over $3. Now, if you have him beat you win $18. This means that he needs to be bluffing here more than 20% of the time to make a call an winning play. That's very high for this board at these stakes at Pokerstars where I play.

Now let's say he folds the 9 straight if you raise $X back and re-pots with the ten straight.

Your raise wins you $18 9 times out of 21 and costs you X 12 times out of 21. To break even you need to bet $18*9/21 = $7.71 or less. This isn't enough to qualify as call, much less a raise.

Unless you have a good (make that very good) reason to believe he has a set or less this is a clear fold.

[Yads]

Great analysis SilentAcorns. Thanks.