12/24 Live Bad flop call?

[vmacosta]

I've been playing for a couple of hours and up a few racks when the following hand came up. UTG is major donkey. He's limped in EP with 72o and he doesn't seem to understand when he's beat, repeatedly donking the big bet streets. All others in the hand are typically LAG. Donkey calls, 3 more callers, and I look down at K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and call. SB completes and BB checks.
Flop is 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Both blinds check and look disinterested, Donkey bets, MP1 raises, 2 cold callers, I call. Any merit or am I overplaying my heater?

[W. Deranged]

This is not good.

You are facing a bet and a raise in a small pot, with nothing but bottom pair and running draws. You are giving reverse-implied odds even when you are ahead and there's not much to fight for.

Calling here is very bad. Raising is probably slightly better than calling because you'll better protect your hand from the bazillion overcards it's against and might buy some fold equity or something. That discussion is really moot because both are severely -EV and hence the only legit play is folding, in my opinion.

[vmacosta]

"You are facing a bet and a raise in a small pot"

What do you consider a small pot? There are currently 14 SB and it is 2 to me.

"Raising is probably slightly better than calling"

Interesting...

"because you'll better protect your hand from the bazillion overcards it's against "

But not for this reason. I am well aware I am behind and have very little chance of winning without showdown. I guess the questions I want answered are:
what is my pot equity?
What are the chances I won't get to see the river card (and how do we adjust my equity to account for this?
What are my implied odds when there is a donkey and multiple loose players who don't understand hand values and are willing to go for multiple bets on the BB streets without much of a hand?
I'd venture to say that this decision is close.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
"You are facing a bet and a raise in a small pot"

What do you consider a small pot? There are currently 14 SB and it is 2 to me.



[/ QUOTE ]

I missed the cold-callers. My bad. 14 SB is pretty big, but 7-1 are by no means outrageously good odds.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not good.

You are facing a bet and a raise in a small pot, with nothing but bottom pair and running draws. You are giving reverse-implied odds even when you are ahead and there's not much to fight for.

Calling here is very bad. Raising is probably slightly better than calling because you'll better protect your hand from the bazillion overcards it's against and might buy some fold equity or something. That discussion is really moot because both are severely -EV and hence the only legit play is folding, in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disregard all this crap because I didn't realize there were cold-callers.

This hand is simple. It's just a math problem. We have 3 dirty K outs, 2 3 outs that are probably clean, and 1.5 backdoor draws. This 6.5 max should probably be discounted to like 5 or 5.5 or so at least (realize that our K's may often make others straights or higher two pairs, and that there could be a set out).

It may get capped behind us. Dirty outs mean that sometimes we'll hit and lose, eating into our implied odds.

Getting 7-1 ish we're not in like a totally different universe from a call but I think we certainly don't have odds.

So we fold.

[toss]

You have two outs to trips and 3 outs to two pair. These have to be discounted because of the diamond draw and the K completing a straight draw. So 2 to 3.5 outs. You also have a Backdoor straightdraw and backdoor flush draw. .5 to 1 out for the BD straight and 1.0-1.5 for the Backdoor flush. So you're going to have something like 3.5 to 5 outs here. If you think the risk of a 3-bet is low I'd say the decision is close.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising is probably slightly better than calling because you'll better protect your hand from the bazillion overcards it's against and might buy some fold equity or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're joking.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising is probably slightly better than calling because you'll better protect your hand from the bazillion overcards it's against and might buy some fold equity or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're joking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like totally misread the action.

I'm borderline illiterate.

My original comment makes exactly zero sense.