Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn

[joewatch]

I thought this one was pretty interesting. What's your move on the turn?

$100 PL Omaha (Real Money) Total number of players : 10

Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG
Seat 3: Hero ( $99 ) = SB

Preflop:
Dealt to Hero [ T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Villain raises [$3.50], folded to Hero in SB, Hero calls [$3]

** Dealing Flop ** $7.60 [ 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, T /images/graemlins/club.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$7.60], Hero calls [$7.60].

** Dealing Turn ** [ K /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$22.05], Hero ???

Where I play, he has one of two hands : AAxx or KKxx. One is wonderful for you, the other for him. Each are equally likely. The big question is whether or not he's LAG enough to keep pushing Aces here without a QJ to back it up.

Let's say you re-raise to about $88 all-in. I assume he calls with KK and folds AA. If he has AA, you win $44.10. If he has KK, you'll win 11/42 rivers netting $109 each time and you'll lose 31/42 rivers costing you $88 each time. So, AA = +$44 while KK = +109*11/42 - 88*31/42 = $-36. Therefore, if AA and KK are equally likely, raising will win you an average of $4. Of course the odds go way up if he calls here with AA.

I like a call then check/call on a non-nut river better here because it wins more from AA and loses less to KK. Finally, on the off chance he has 66 or worse you still get near full value. This only falls apart if he has an insane wrap draw, like 4578 which he might check behind you if he misses.

I still vote call then check/call.

[blumpkin22]

I might have raised the flop but since you didn't I think you should raise the turn. You need to get as much money as you can into the pot. If he has KK then so be it, but there's no reason to think he does. He's much more likely to have AAxx. The only question is whether he will dump his hand if you raise the turn when he would have fired again on the river. If you think this to be the case, smooth call the turn and check-raise or bet all-in depending on how scary the river card looks to him. The problem is you won't like an A or J on the river.

[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
Where I play, he has one of two hands : AAxx or KKxx. One is wonderful for you, the other for him. Each are equally likely. The big question is whether or not he's LAG enough to keep pushing Aces here without a QJ to back it up.

Let's say you re-raise to about $88 all-in. I assume he calls with KK and folds AA. If he has AA, you win $44.10. If he has KK, you'll win 11/42 rivers netting $109 each time and you'll lose 31/42 rivers costing you $88 each time. So, AA = +$44 while KK = +109*11/42 - 88*31/42 = $-36. Therefore, if AA and KK are equally likely, raising will win you an average of $4. Of course the odds go way up if he calls here with AA.

I like a call then check/call on a non-nut river better here because it wins more from AA and loses less to KK. Finally, on the off chance he has 66 or worse you still get near full value. This only falls apart if he has an insane wrap draw, like 4578 which he might check behind you if he misses.

I still vote call then check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely.

I'd probably fold there unless the villian was hyper aggressive, in which case I'd check-call the turn and either bet or check-crying call the river depending on if I hit it or not.

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]

Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

Sorry, but this is just stupid. Hero has an ace, but THERE IS A KING ON THE BOARD. It is a fact that players are more likely to raise preflop with aces than kings. He is definitely more likely to have aces.

Folding is just horrible poker. I'm not opposed to check/calling down, but I'm not convinced it's best, either.

[Jim T]

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Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely.

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Sorry, but this is just stupid. Hero has an ace, but THERE IS A KING ON THE BOARD.

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Oops. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[RoundersRocks!]

Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK?

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. But I'd say it's at least 50% chance of AA. Maybe 1/6 KK.

[blumpkin22]

[ QUOTE ]

Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG


[/ QUOTE ]

More reason not to fear the worst and get your money in.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG


[/ QUOTE ]

More reason not to fear the worst and get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you guys, but if I'm considering folding this I'm in the wrong game.

[IronDragon1]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought this one was pretty interesting. What's your move on the turn?

$100 PL Omaha (Real Money) Total number of players : 10

Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG
Seat 3: Hero ( $99 ) = SB

Preflop:
Dealt to Hero [ T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Villain raises [$3.50], folded to Hero in SB, Hero calls [$3]

** Dealing Flop ** $7.60 [ 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif, T /images/graemlins/club.gif, 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$7.60], Hero calls [$7.60].

** Dealing Turn ** [ K /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Hero checks, Villain bets [$22.05], Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Run, don't walk to push.

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Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. But I'd say it's at least 50% chance of AA. Maybe 1/6 KK.

[/ QUOTE ]
My thinking is that a LAG will rasie with KK just, or nearly, as much as with AA. Furthermore, I assume that he wouldn't be this aggressive with anything less. Finally, even if he has less then he is near drawing dead and a raise will probably just make him fold.

Is this unreasonable?

[RickyG]

[ QUOTE ]
Run, don't walk to push.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have bet this flop. I disagree with the analysis that he must have AA or KK here. As a bit of a LAG myself, I can tell you that the range of hands extends far beyond this to any good wrap, something like qqkj or kqjj and even worse. Letting the LAG control the action here is a mistake IMO, especially since he is likely to put you in a situation where you might consider folding a monster like second set and the nut flushdraw, AND a gutshot straight draw.

Assuming your set isnt winning (which it will be 50% of the time or more if we assume only AA and KK) you have 12 outs to improve. so 50% of the time you are winning, and 24% of the time you will draw o the best hand.

Assuming he always folds the AA and always calls the KK:
50% of the time, he folds, you win the pot: +$44
12.5% of the time, he calls, you win the pot: + 121 ( believe I did this right, the size of the final pot, minus the size of his all in bet on turn)
37.5% of the time: you go all in for ~$77 more and lose: -$77

I believe that makes going all in +$8 every time, but I dont have practice doing this type of math so my numbers may be wrong.

I also believe that lots of times he will have hands other than AA or KK (like KT, or 66) and he will sometimes call sometimes fold, making it even more +ev.

if you are the kind of player that will consider folding this on the turn, you should not be slowplaying on this flop.

[3rdEye]

I don't see why we have to put him on KK. He's made standard pot sized continuation bets on each street. He could have done this with a number of hands, including AA that picked up a straight or flush draw on the turn.

[joewatch]

Villain did have KK, but I sucked out a spade on the river.
/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain did have KK, but I sucked out a spade on the river.
/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

So what were your turn thoughts/action? I'd be torn between pushing and letting villain keep betting out. I lean towards the latter but it's close. KK is possible (call down), as is AA or anything else foe might feel like hammering with (call down), but that action would be very believable if foe had a low run like 4567 (push).

nh