55, flush board [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

newhizzle

10-07-2005, 01:06 AM

CO is TAG

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 folds, CO raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero ...

how good do yall think my club outs/possibly having the best hand are here?

and how would you go about playing it if you continue?

Harv72b

10-07-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how good do yall think my club outs/possibly having the best hand are here?

[/ QUOTE ]

check/raise & find out. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

WillyTrailer

10-07-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 folds, CO raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero ...

how good do yall think my club outs/possibly having the best hand are here?

[/ QUOTE ]

do you have a read? because that would be super!

-WT

newhizzle

10-07-2005, 01:10 AM

yeah, CO is TAG, sorry

Harv72b

10-07-2005, 01:26 AM

Seriously, this is about the perfect spot to check/raise in:

Villain can't call your c/r with a hand that doesn't beat you/a better flush draw. He might even fold a better hand (PP QQ-99 w/o club) on the grounds that he's either way behind top pair/flopped set/made flush, or barely ahead of a 4-flush. Your c/r looks perfectly natural for a flopped flush or big flush draw, as it looks like you were hoping to trap UTG+1 for an extra bet on the flop.

I check/raise the flop, folding a non-club, non-5 turn if 3-bet, and bet/folding a club turn. If he flat calls the flop c/r, I bet/fold a non-5 turn (bet/calling a 5) and lead any river if he flat calls the turn.

Of course this is an easy check/fold if UTG+1 calls the flop bet ahead of you.

WillyTrailer

10-07-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how good do yall think my club outs/possibly having the best hand are here?

[/ QUOTE ]

check/raise & find out. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

do you think you gain have more fold equity by c/r'ing than by call donking? Villains range is probably 99+, AT+, KQ, KJ.

the only hands we have the possiblity of folding are the AT-AQ and maybe some of the pairs without a club but that's player dependent. I'm inclined to think a donk works just as well as a c/r.

I'm not advocating that line as I'm not sure if we should continue. maybe call the flop and bet fold the turn (no matter what comes off).

hmmm...i'll come back to this.

-WT

WillyTrailer

10-07-2005, 01:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, this is about the perfect spot to check/raise in:

Villain can't call your c/r with a hand that doesn't beat you/a better flush draw. He might even fold a better hand (PP QQ-99 w/o club) on the grounds that he's either way behind top pair/flopped set/made flush, or barely ahead of a 4-flush. Your c/r looks perfectly natural for a flopped flush or big flush draw, as it looks like you were hoping to trap UTG+1 for an extra bet on the flop.

I check/raise the flop, folding a non-club, non-5 turn if 3-bet, and bet/folding a club turn. If he flat calls the flop c/r, I bet/fold a non-5 turn (bet/calling a 5) and lead any river if he flat calls the turn.

Of course this is an easy check/fold if UTG+1 calls the flop bet ahead of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you if the opponent is a little weak tight and not terribly thoughtful. Seriously, what hands do you come in for a limp with behind one limper that are beating any pair. If I'm your opponent and you c/r me I don't believe you have a K and I don't believe you have 88. I think any hands you play that contain a K you raise, as well as 88 behind a limper (i guess some of this could be table dependent, but with as tight as 3/6 usually is I'm inclined to think you raise those holdings preflop.)

if you c/r me I'll think either you're FOS or you have TJc, QJc or 33.

and if I have the Q, T, or J of clubs in my hand I have even more info.

at any rate I'm just trying to point out that if this guy is thinking he's probably not letting go of a pair.

-WT

WillyTrailer

10-07-2005, 01:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, this is about the perfect spot to check/raise in:

Villain can't call your c/r with a hand that doesn't beat you/a better flush draw. He might even fold a better hand (PP QQ-99 w/o club) on the grounds that he's either way behind top pair/flopped set/made flush, or barely ahead of a 4-flush. Your c/r looks perfectly natural for a flopped flush or big flush draw, as it looks like you were hoping to trap UTG+1 for an extra bet on the flop.

I check/raise the flop, folding a non-club, non-5 turn if 3-bet, and bet/folding a club turn. If he flat calls the flop c/r, I bet/fold a non-5 turn (bet/calling a 5) and lead any river if he flat calls the turn.

Of course this is an easy check/fold if UTG+1 calls the flop bet ahead of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you if the opponent is a little weak tight and not terribly thoughtful. Seriously, what hands do you come in for a limp with behind one limper that are beating any pair. If I'm your opponent and you c/r me I don't believe you have a K and I don't believe you have 88. I think any hands you play that contain a K you raise, as well as 88 behind a limper (i guess some of this could be table dependent, but with as tight as 3/6 usually is I'm inclined to think you raise those holdings preflop.)

if you c/r me I'll think either you're FOS or you have TJc, QJc or 33.

and if I have the Q, T, or J of clubs in my hand I have even more info.

at any rate I'm just trying to point out that if this guy is thinking he's probably not letting go of a pair.

-WT

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, he's not letting go of any hand with a decent sized club, but he will let go of a hand with no club no pair on the turn regardless so I think i like to call the flop and bet the turn better than c/r the flop and bet the turn.

either way we're folding to a turn raise barring the off chance of spiking a 5.

One could argue for a flop c/r if he thought we had an edge on the flop but against villains range, but I'd say we're only at about 45% equity and that will change a lot on the turn.

Again, this is all working under the assumption that our opponent is thinking. If he's weak a c/r is possibly better.

-WT

Harv72b

10-07-2005, 02:09 AM

I think it's very possible that a player limps behind from MP2 with a hand like KTs, A weak ace sooted to clubs, or a hand like ATo...hell, a lot of 3/6 players would limp behind with hands much weaker than that, and more than a few would limp behind with hands much stronger. So you also have to factor in what kind of read villain is likely to have on Hero, and assume that villain isn't multi-tabling & making the "correct" fold without really thinking about it. And this doesn't even begin to take into account various change of pace hands like T9s, 67s, etc. that Hero might've decided to limp behind with.

I agree that he's probably not letting go of a pair, but that's part of the reason we want to check/raise--because we want to know not only if our 5/images/graemlins/club.gif is good for the flush draw, but whether or not our 55 is good right now. Villain might fold a better PP to a c/r on this flop, but he will probably not call the c/r with two unimproved overcards (to our 55) that do not contain a club. Given the 10:1 pot odds that he'll be getting after the c/r, this means that he's making a FTOP mistake, which is good for us. He will almost certainly 3-bet with the A/images/graemlins/club.gif, which allows for a pretty easy release.

Going with a check/call, donk line makes it pretty obvious what we do have...a pocket pair less than 8 which probably contains a club. We'd certainly have check/raised, or probably led, the flop with a K or set, and we're probably not donking with a made flush; we'd have check/raised the flop with a non-nut flush, and we're not particularly scared of giving a free card with the nut flush if we slowplayed that on the flop.

newhizzle

10-07-2005, 02:33 AM

yeah, i checked first of all to find out what UTG+1 did and was seriously considering raising if he folded, but i ended up playing it like a punk bitch and called down, /images/graemlins/club.gif hit the river, and once again, my bitch ass check/called, CO showed AQ with the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, so i guess it worked out for the best, but i do agree that a c/r is probably the best line and i think i normally would c/r here, or possibly check/fold, i really dont like the way i played it

W. Deranged

10-07-2005, 06:52 AM

My only point is this, Harv:

I think it is very tough to design plays that rely on your opponent FOLDING THE FLOP to a check-raise.

People call flop check-raises without much thought. There are numerous players, even taggish ones, who will just automatically call a check-raise here. (I personally make such calls... though maybe not the one described here... quite liberally, particularly in live games, because in close/slightly negative EV situations I like the metagame effect of encouraging my opponents not to check-raise illegitimately and making it clear that it'll take at least a bet on a big bet street to get rid of me).

jskills

10-07-2005, 11:08 AM

It's a tough spot when you've got a tiny 4 flush heads up.

You could C/R here to see how he responds. Getting 3-bet would mean a fold for me. Also, if he calls the C/R and a blank falls on the turn, I'm not in love with having to lead out OOP. A TAG is not going to fold to a C/R most of the time anyway right?

Villan could easily have a bigger /images/graemlins/club.gif in his hand, either by way of AK/AQ/AJ/KQ or a /images/graemlins/club.gif that is part of a bigger pocket pair.

You could all down too see if you make your little flush, but (1) you might not make it and be beaten by an overpair anyway or (2) you might make it and be beaten by a bigger flush.

Given the pot size on the flop (< 4 BB) I might say let this one go. You're playing 55 for set value and hoping for a large field. Playing for a 5 high flush HU is doesn't seem to be a good percentage play here.

10-07-2005, 11:37 AM

What's your read on UTG+1?

My estimation is that your club outs are not that good...I'd say that IF the fourth club comes, you've got about a 30% chance of having the best hand(that's more of a "feel" than a mathematical 30%, and it's probably high).

The pot seems too small to me and I think that you are already behind.

What is the other players' read on you? With the right table image, you could raise the CO if UTG+1 folds to represent the A /images/graemlins/club.gif and hope that CO folds, but that's pretty aggressive.

Harv72b

10-07-2005, 11:38 AM

If this flop had come down K83 rainbow and the same preflop & flop action had occured, wouldn't you be check/raising? So why not here, when you actually have a good draw to beat a lot of better hands, in addition to the fairly decent chance that Hero actually does have the best hand on the flop?

Understand....this is a very scary flop for a lot of raising hands, and one which many cannot call on. If villain's going to call the flop c/r with AQ (no club), good for him--he shouldn't, but from a FTOP standpoint, it's actually a good call. But if he's going to call the flop c/r and a turn lead, what on Earth makes you think he's going to fold to a turn donk? Or if you think he's going to autocall a flop c/r without a made hand/flush draw, how is it bad to get an extra SB out of him before he folds the turn?

Most TAGs, especially multitabling ones, are going to be very predictable in this scenario. If he's got a strong made hand and/or an A-high flush draw, he's 3-betting the flop. If he's got something like AQ/AJ no club, he's either folding to the c/r or folding to the turn lead. If he's got a PP QQ-99, he's probably calling the flop c/r to reevaluate on the turn, and then either folding to the turn lead or calling down regardless of what falls. So it becomes pretty simple to play the rest of the hand:

If you're 3-bet on the flop, you're either way behind or slightly behind (to two overs/a better PP + a better flush draw). If you're called on the flop & raised on a non-club turn, you're probably behind but drawing live to your flush (although it's possible that he flopped the nut flush in this scenario, this won't happen often). If you're called on the flop and on the turn, you're probably ahead but up against a better flush draw. If he folds on the flop or turn, you win the pot.