good river raise bluff?

[kapw7]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB has tight stats: 22/9 ABC poker.

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

[Noodles]

this is terrible,you trying to represent a t or 9?
tight means he had something when he bet and he isnt folding enough

[kapw7]

I'm sure he has something. This can be overcards, straight draw, flush draw that beat me b/c of that river card but can fold to a river raise. Tight players can bet-fold on scary boards. I've learned that here. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[deepsquat]

what do u think he will fold that beats u?

No way he folds and overpair, no way he folds a T or a 9,

88 is the only hand that I could see him possibly folding.

Let him bet his smaller PP or A high. Just call, he wont call a raise on this river with anything you beat imo and he wont fold anything that beats u. I see no value in this play.

If you have a missed flush draw or something that may fold a hand that beats u like Ace high then i may not mind this play but i dont think this is a good board 4 it.

[deepsquat]

dah daydreaming- A high beats us. let me have a think. Im too tired... lol

[callydrias]

Spew. You're putting in 2BB to win 6.16. This will not work 35% of the time.

Edit: Oops, yeah, I meant 25%. I don't think it will work that often either.

[me454555]

Raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet. I think thats your best line here b/c even if teh 9 doesn't pair, you calling a river bet right? If he 3 bets your on the turn, your hand is toast anyway. this way you charge overs more $$ to draw on you.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Spew. You're putting in 2BB to win 6.16. This will not work 35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean 25%. I think it will work against this opponent. Not 100% sure though.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the turn, fold to a 3 bet. I think thats your best line here b/c even if teh 9 doesn't pair, you calling a river bet right? If he 3 bets your on the turn, your hand is toast anyway. this way you charge overs more $$ to draw on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree raising the turn is a better play.
And fold to a river bet if a 9 (as in the present hand) falls? Or would you play that differently?

[me454555]

I think you can toss to a river bet b/c he's not betting w/less than A high. If he bets the river on you after you pop the turn, I wouldn't be surprised if he showed down a boat

[jogger08152]

It's a good raise. Hope you took it down.

Looks like a desparation raise. You forgot to raise the turn and tried to make up for it on the river because now you can't win without bluffing.

Don't like it.

[wackjob]

easy fold on the turn vs. this type of player.

[wackjob]

I think a turn raise will only work against a thinking TAG or a super weak passive player, not this guy.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
Just call

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting line, but I don't think that it's optimal in terms of EV. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]
Spew. You're putting in 2BB to win 6.16. This will not work 35% of the time.

Edit: Oops, yeah, I meant 25%. I don't think it will work that often either.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts:
He puts me on big overcards or high PP. His turn bet is a push out bet. If he had a Ten or even 9 sometimes, he would go for a C-R. He's probably on a draw or middle-low PP and since he's going to pay a bet anyway, he is going for the donk bet on the scary board since he knows Im capable of folding.

On the river to me it is much more likely that he is going for a bet-fold line. As said before it is less likely he has a T (or 9) and I'm sure he is check-calling A-high. My raise looks like a desperate bluff as someone else said, but also as a slowplay-punishment after he donk-bet on the turn.
Also someone said i'm representing 9 or T. I think more likely I represent A-high or high PP.