free sd raise

i open with 88 from the CO, TAG villain in the sb 3bets (24/16/2.4), bb folds, i call.

flop is K 7 3 rainbow

he bets, i call.

turn is a 4

he bets, i raise planning on putting in 0 more bets.


i planned on calling down either way, but i figured it'd be better if i could get him to fold a a hand like a big ace (with 6 outs) or a smaller ace (3 outs) or possibly something like 99-QQ - which may or may not have been a stretch since i have been playing pretty solid and have been showing down winners. i'm still kinda iffy about when and where to use this.

good?

[meanjean]

I like it...a person with a plan...and the plan sounds good to me. You're either way ahead or way behind...and btw, you'd bet again if an 8 hit on the river

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and btw, you'd bet again if an 8 hit on the river

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i thought that would be obvious. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MAxx]

looks like a good play to me.

[Adam22]

i love turn raises with hands that are of questionable value... if you plan on calling down its almost always better to raise the turn in similar situations because it costs the same and is +EV since he will fold at least some of the time.

[Lmn55d]

I think the play is good against someone who could fold a better hand. However, you definitely do not want a 3 outer to fold. Whether you want a 6 outer to fold depends on the probability he calls a river bet no matter what the river is. If getting a 6outer to fold here is +EV, it is only marginally so. Keep in mind that you also forfeit a 2 outer with nice implied odds by raising and folding to a 3bet. Not a major consideration, but a consideration nonetheless.

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I think the play is good against someone who could fold a better hand. However, you definitely do not want a 3 outer to fold. Whether you want a 6 outer to fold depends on the probability he calls a river bet no matter what the river is. If getting a 6outer to fold here is +EV, it is only marginally so. Keep in mind that you also forfeit a 2 outer with nice implied odds by raising and folding to a 3bet. Not a major consideration, but a consideration nonetheless.

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yeah, you're right about folding a three outer.

wouldn't folding a 6 outer would be worth more than the shot at seeing the river to spike an 8 though?

i'm not great at math but here goes.

5.5 bbs after he bets the turn + 2 (his bet + call of my raise) on the river if i spike, so 7.5 * (2/46) = .32 bb

5.5 + 2 for my raise = 7.5 * (6/46) = .97 bb - pretty significant considering he'd be getting priced in to call if he knew his outs were clean.

is that right? forgive me if the math is off and feel free to correct it if you see any mistakes.

there is also the chance that he follows through on the river with an A high bluff, or he check/calls UI on the end. i'm not sure how to work that out though.