Kind of Interesting, Kind of Eye-Opening... VERSION 2

[W. Deranged]

So... I post bad. I screwed up the action when I first posted this. This is how it really went down. I think the other hand is interesting in its own right, though I think in that situation I actually would take issue with my course of action.

Note the one change. This hand vs. the original one provide for an interesting comparison, in my opinion.


Villain is loose, and a little bit more aggressive than average, but nowhere close to a maniac. I think he was like 25/8/1.8 or something.

The game is Party 5/10. This is kind of made up, but the idea is right.

I open behind one fold with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif. Villain cold-calls and we take the flop "just the two of us."

Flop (5+ SB): 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif .

I bet and villain calls.

Turn (3.5 BB): 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

I bet, villain raises, I call.

River (7.5 BB): A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, villain raises, I call.

Edited by W. Deranged (10/06/05 01:58 PM)

[Shillx]

This hand is nowhere near as interesting as the 1st one. The river bet is good, but you have to fold to the raise imo. You have clearly defined your hand and he doesn't care. He is raising you on the end because he wants you to call.

Brad

[brazilio]

I don't really like the river bet/call

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is nowhere near as interesting as the 1st one. The river bet is good, but you have to fold to the raise imo. You have clearly defined your hand and he doesn't care. He is raising you on the end because he wants you to call.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree.

A/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif specifically

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like the river bet/call

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's why the hand is fun.

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like the river bet/call

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's why the hand is fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh. Don't see how he's playing anything you beat like this, do you really put him on a lower A? Because that's all you're calling for.

[Shillx]

It isn't so much that he is bluffing as much as the times that he will have AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif or AJ /images/graemlins/club.gif and make this play. This hand is kinda tough to analyze since we don't know what you would do if the river bricked out. Are you check/calling or check/folding?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
It isn't so much that he is bluffing as much as the times that he will have AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif or AJ /images/graemlins/club.gif and make this play. This hand is kinda tough to analyze since we don't know what you would do if the river bricked out. Are you check/calling or check/folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

The main theme of this post, from my point of view, is trying to get a kind of "feel" for the situations in which turn raises are total crap and need to be called down. The reason I think it is interesting is because this player was NOT a lag; just a slightly aggressive, slightly loose type. The "eye-opening" part has to do with my continuing realization that players with seemingly innocuous stats, at least at the 5/10 level, will make random steal plays.

I had every intent to check-call a river bet unimproved.

I like the river bet for these reasons:

-If villain was getting tricky with an overpair or an A high semi-bluff or something, he may sometimes let the river check-through and I miss a bet.

-If villain in fact has an A, he may raise for value and I get another bet out of him.

-If he's totally FOS, he may bluff-raise again, thinking there's no way I can call again, and so I make maximum value here.

I'm sort of gambling here, that this player is FOS often and that, conditional upon the fact that he bluff raised the turn, he will some high percentage of the time, bluff-raise the river also, instead of folding to my donk-bet.

I'm not sure it's right, but I do think it's interesting.

The one thing I'm sure of is that bet-folding is bad here because if the turn is a bluff or semi-bluff than so is the river, and so the river raise is actually LESS scary to me once we condition on the fact that he raised the turn.

[Shillx]

I had every intent to check-call a river bet unimproved.

Well then there really isn't much that anyone can say other then "nice hand". My reply was based off of the assumption that you were going to check/fold the river. Well played.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I had every intent to check-call a river bet unimproved.

Well then there really isn't much that anyone can say other then "nice hand". My reply was based off of the assumption that you were going to check/fold the river. Well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think one interesting question that I thought about afterward is this: does the A really change anything? If I'm ahead, I'm still ahead. If I was behind, I'm often still behind. When I have pulled ahead (against a non-set pocket pair), I often won't get called anyway on the river.

That's my real question. If I was going to check-call "unimproved," why shouldn't I do a similar thing once the A comes? How much does that card change anything?

I'm still not sure the correct answer to this question.

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
That's my real question. If I was going to check-call "unimproved," why shouldn't I do a similar thing once the A comes? How much does that card change anything?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll agree that is the only real question here.

Against this player I am not folding this river. I think it is just as likely he holds AQ/AJ /images/graemlins/club.gif, AKo or is bluff raising a counterfeited overpair as it is he holds a set.

I think the deciding factor if we lead this river is if you feel this player makes a crying call. Otherwise I feel it is a near 50/50 split between the times we were ahead/behind. Actually I think the scales tilt toward checking this river because he is going to bet A/KQJ so you collect/split there. Now judging by preflop I think this boy is more likely to 3-bet 88 and up. So villain is more likely to have the set we lose to or the Ax he bets for us.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
That's my real question. If I was going to check-call "unimproved," why shouldn't I do a similar thing once the A comes? How much does that card change anything?


[/ QUOTE ]
Is this a trick question?

You were going to check/call UI because you only need him to be FOS about 20% of the time to make a profit.

When the A rivers, you pass a bunch of the non-FOS hands, like 7x and PPs K-8. That changes a lot. You're ahead enough now to value bet and call a raise. It would be a crime not to bet TPTK HU, even against a turn raise.

FWIW, I think this is an excellent spot for villian to bluff raise the turn with A-high, assuming hero folds overcards there.