WSOP laydown

[GrannyMae]

from andy glazer's newsletter, this is an account of one of his plays.
(he is now out by a BEAT he suffered later)

<font color="red"> With about 45 minutes remaining in the second day of the 2003 WSOP, a tournament offering a life-changing $2,500,000 to the winner, Jim Meehan opened for his standard raise of $2,800 (the blinds were $600-1,200). I found two kings and made it $9,000.

It came back around to Jim, and he moved all-in, his $110,000 just covering my $95,000 or so. For the first time in my life, and we'll never know if it was the right thing to do, I thought for about four minutes, and laid down two kings before the flop. There are a million ways to think this hand through. Jim had aces and was trying the overbet to suck me in. Jim had the same hand I did and didn't want to risk looking at a flop if I had A-K. Jim had nothing special and figured I wouldn't call with anything but aces.

One of the tough parts of poker is that even though Jim is a friend, I can't ever believe what he later tells me. It's just a part of the game, and I'm stuck not knowing. I now believe we had the same hand--I think with aces he would have raised me back $30,000, and then I'd have moved him in, and we'd have found out, but now we'll never know.

(Note: Vahedi later said to me that Meehan told him he had pocket kings, same as Andy. When I see Minneapolis Jim tomorrow I'll beat an honest answer out of him. -Max Shapiro)

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sorry andy, you know i love ya, but if you can't call in this situation with KK, you are playing wayyyyy too scared, or the meds have taken over. I hate to say this, but had you called and won this hand, you might still be there.

sorry you are out andy, but i voted "Insane" above.

http://e4u.consoleradar.com/crazy/289.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

But since they both had pocket kings, it's extremely unlikely that anyone would have won this hand.

BTW, I voted "Depends". It depends on how good you think you are, relative to the remaining field. I don't know enough about Andy to say. If you thought you were the best poker player alive, you wouldn't gamble your entire stack, even if you are a huge favorite. If you thought you were the worst player in the field, obviously you gamble. At some point in between, it changes from call to fold.

[sdplayerb]

you gotta go with your gut.

[lorinda]

I've laid down pocket kings four times in my life preflop, three times the guy had aces, the other time the guy had QQ but i won the tourney.

What hands can your opponent realistically have here (After review, the KK looks plausible, but in the heat of the moment, there are only three hands he can have)

AA, QQ, JJ (AK too, but hey, we got two kings)

So, in simple terms, you are calling 100k into what is still a SMALL POT in the World series of poker, when that 100k is enough to get you into the money and you will get many more chances to get it in with a better hand.

I don't know what I would do here, I think I call, but I think that the laydown is perfectly okay as a play.

Why gamble when there's about a 1 in 3 shot that you are going home with nothing when you have a decent stack and small blinds?

Lori

[lorinda]

You got to remember that 100k is an average stack for the last 80 and 63 get paid $15,000 REAL money.

Even getting to last 36 doesnt pay much more money, and that is all this pot represents.

Lori

[Jimbo]

"What hands can your opponent realistically have here (After review, the KK looks plausible, but in the heat of the moment, there are only three hands he can have)"

How about 7/2 off, QT, Presto, 3/5 sooooted, plenty of hands he can make this play with. Easy call, obviously playing on scared money.

[Daliman]

Realistically, he can't have any of those goofy hands, unless he's a complete lunatic. It's just obvious. KK into about a 20k pot for your last 95K is not worth it. If
you think otherwise, you just don't have a deep enough understanding of tournament poker.

[Jimbo]

"If
you think otherwise, you just don't have a deep enough understanding of tournament poker."

Daliman, thanks for the best laugh I've had in months!!

[GrannyMae]

But since they both had pocket kings, it's extremely unlikely that anyone would have won this hand

excellent point in respects to my comment about still being there if he called.

also, i think it is a great argument that the best player in the world *should* laydown here, but i'll still take the other side of the argument.

even the best player needs to take a stance at some point, and there is only one hand that i would fear holding KK, and if he has the goods, it does not make me less of a player.

2.5mil buys me a ton of smiley bundles, and i call the raise.

http://e4u.consoleradar.com/crazy/726.gif

[lorinda]

even the best player needs to take a stance at some point

For me that point is after the $15,000 is safely in my handbag, I'm not going to build a very nice stack and then blow it unless I'm very sure I'm in front.

Remember, the guy is smart enough to know your 9k is likely a "come on" bet, and still he has "come on", not only that, he has probably smelled your kings/queens from the size of your bet and deduced that you will stick the lot in, Im coming down on the side of folding the more I think about it here.


Lori

[GrannyMae]

i think it might have been a "move" as well. glazer has been playing tighter than hell since narrowly escaping from a bad play on day one, and i think there is some validity to the 'scared money' theory.

in case anyone is interested, here is his exit
(to the chip leader)

<font color="red"> With about 15 minutes left before the midnight bell that would end Day Two, I picked up two aces in early position, and raised to $3,500. Amir Vahedi, who had about $220,000, called. The flop came 8d-8c-3c, Amir checked, I bet $15,000, and Amir made it $35,000. I figured he had me on tilt from the big laydown earlier (I'd hardly stopped talking about it), and moved my last chips (a raise of about another $25,000) in. Amir called immediately, and I asked the question I didn't need to ask: "Do you have an eight?"

Amir said yes, and turned over 7-8 offsuit. I was dead to two outs and unlike day one when I hit my two outer, there was no reprieve. In a 30 minute stretch, I took $90,000, caught aces and kings, and was out of the tournament. Did I make the right play on the end? Was I just doomed by that board? Am I supposed to make another laydown right after talking about (but not showing) another?

I'm really too stunned to know right now. I'll ask other pros later. I got lucky on day one, and maybe what goes around comes around. Two days of playing through the pain (almost unbelievably, yet another person slammed into me as I was sitting down--this time my friend Phil Hellmuth, who was racing to the bathroom--my spine must look like origami by now) end in an emptiness and entirely different kind of pain. If the board had been something like K-Q-9, I probably could have gotten away from the hand on the raise. If I try a crazy play like just moving all-in from the start, I probably just win a small pot, but could get called by someone other than Amir, and I double up.

I'm trying to figure out how all this can make me a better person or player. So far the only thing I can up with is not to whine about it, since my mistake with two tens on Day One could have ended things then and there. I guess I also know a little more about disconsolate other players are when they bust out with a chance, but I had always figured I was kind of high on the empathy quotient anyway.

Right now I just want oblivion, for my back to stop hurting, and eventually to figure out if I played the hands against Meehan and Vahedi correctly. Oblivion shouldn't be too hard. I'm still numb as it is.

If my back is OK and I can recover emotionally (I suspect the answer will hinge more on point #1 rather than #2), I will be reporting about Day Three and thereafter. If not, Max will take you through Wednesday, and hopefully I'll be back in action on Thursday.

All I really know for sure is that I have to find a way to make this awful, empty, simultaneously numbing and painful experience into a positive. I can keep it in perspective, I suppose...there are many more things more important in life than a poker tournament, even one that offers so much money and other possibilities. Who knows, maybe I would have made a horrible blunder tomorrow and forever felt like a class A moron. Right now, though, I feel like a boxer who has taken one too many blows, and who just needs to fall to the canvas, so fall I will. That being said...

I'll be back.

Andy Glazer

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http://e4u.consoleradar.com/crazy/793.gif

[lorinda]

figured he had me on tilt from the big laydown earlier (I'd hardly stopped talking about it

OMG

The last thing, the very last thing, the absolute thing you must NOT do when folding kings is tell ANYONE, not until it is nice and safe later.

If they know you are folding kings preflop, you should call with them.

Lori

[sdplayerb]

I agree.
but AK is still more likely than any pocket pair. 8 ways to have AK 6 to have a pair.

We also don't know how tight they have both been playing.
But Andy is not a world class player, so unless the other guy is super tight, maybe he should have gone for it.

[VeryTnA]

I've been in this exact situation twice with KK. Much small touranments of course. Once I was all in against AA and spiked a King on the river. The other time it was KK vs KK. I made a flush on the river. Put me in Andy's shoes with a chance at history and $2.5 million......its an easy fold. I can lay down KK, kiss my $9,000 raise good bye, hold on to my 95K stack and live to fight. Talk about looking for a bad beat.

[GrannyMae]

But Andy is not a world class player

this is an important point.

andy is self-admittedly a writer first, and a player second. that is why i found this fascinating. i think andy is no better or no worse than most of the regular serious posters here. (i am not including myself in the same class as the better players on these forums. my job is just being the clown and working kook patrol. i am fine with that)

however, that is why i was so presumptuous as to second guess his play.

[lorinda]

....Now you mention it....

Was he the guy that said there was no implied value in calling a small raise with a pair of eights last year because it was no limit and not limit?

If so CALL!!!

Lori

[GrannyMae]

its an easy fold. I can lay down KK, kiss my $9,000 raise good bye

even if a double makes you the chip leader, or very close to it? is there no value to the future equity??

damn, you guys are tight as clams.

http://www.techhelpers.net/e4u/animal/tier42.gif

[sdplayerb]

can i change my vote??

still it is tough. you work your butt off for a day and a half to go from 10K to 100K and can be gone in an instance.

great hand you brought up.

where was this posted?

[Hung]

In that situation I'd sell my house and buy-in more chips so I could bet it.
I put in all what I got.
My biggest laydown I can remember is AKs and I flop doublepair on the turn. Straight and flush was possible. I knew he didn't have the flush, but he might have the same hand or a set. I still don't know what he had. He didn't say anything.

Anyway, I wouldn't be able to fold KK in that situation.

[Mike Haven]

i hope andy is in a good mood after all this, granny!

the last time i quoted his words here didn't he threaten to sue me, 2+2, and mr sunshine's cat?

[BBill]

I have folded kings preflop in a tourney 1 time and I have to admit it was a mistake. I claim it was a result of not being able to deal with the pressure - I mucked to a rereaise in limit which would have put 1/2 of my stack in - he showed 99 - that's the last time I do that..

[dogsballs]

I reckon it's a decent laydown in a top tourney facing a decent player. A raise and reraise preflop from a good player in this situation severely narrows the hands he's likely to be holding.

dogs

[mrbaseball]

Live to fight?

Fight with what? If you can't take the chance to double up with KK what will you fight with? Get blinded away until you flop the nuts?

My chips fly into that pot without hesitation. If he has AA so be it. But if he doesn't I like my chances.

[VeryTnA]

even if a double makes you the chip leader, or very close to it? is there no value to the future equity??

Ganny, The answer to both your questions is yes, but only in your local weekly small buy in tournament. This is the WSOP. You have a nice stack, your raise was met with an over the top move that would sent you home with nothing. Fold here and live to fight. Here's a question for you....If KK is so good why raise only 9K, why not go all in? The reason is someone could have AA, and you would be going home!!! If the 9K raise didn't make them stop and think you have a big problem. IMHO in this situation its just not worth the risk. I want to be the one raising all in. I don't want to call away 95K and my chance get into the money.

[Mike Haven]

this is exactly the post i was going to make

you can do all the mathematics you want and work out that you are better than fourteen possible hands, evens with one, and worse than six, and so on, but you are not nearly in a position where you have to call and risk being out at this stage of the most important tournament of the year because he does have AA, or he does have AK and an A flops

swallow the relatively small loss and look for a better chance to get your money in first so he is the one sweating

it's not as if you'll get the reputation of folding KK's to 100k bets if you muck 'em and keep quiet

[mrbaseball]

I think this is why experienced tournament players make a lot of final tables. Because they know the weak, timid and tight types will even toss in KK when the the bubble is in sight. So they get aggressive. Very aggressive and chew through the guys mucking everything but the mortal nuts who are trying to outlast the others past the bubble. The farmer and the fox. Watching WPT a few weeks back seeing Phil Ivey go all in with Q4 while the twitchy and nervous semi-pro thinks long and hard before mucking his AQ.

Being aggressive against the holder ons is what wins tournaments. It also sometimes loses them /forums/images/icons/smile.gif But you have to be aggressive against the guys that are just trying to limp into the money. And if they read you as one that just wants to limp to the money? They will tear you up! They may even get you to fold KK!

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory on the bubble than get blinded and anted away while all the big boys attack me unmercifully.

[Mike Haven]

it's difficult to argue against your very valid points, but, again, this is not one of your ordinary weekly tournaments where you can come back next week and give it another go

it's not really going out in a blaze of glory when, because of what has been happening at your table for the last hour or two, perhaps, you "believe" the guy has aces, you call reluctantly with kings, he has the aces, and you're outta there

for andy to have his 100k he can't have been playing too timidly, so personally i doubt if the other guy risked ending his own tourney without a very big hand, knowing that andy would have called with aces, very likely called with kings, and possibly called with AK or QQ, after he had just made a substantial raise of a raiser - the sometimes axiom of not raising unless you can stand a reraise would have gone through his mind i am sure

but, of course, maybe andy had folded to lesser raises earlier or whatever - who knows? this could have been a genius move with a JJ

i have to agree that aggression takes a large part in a winner's arsenal, but there are also definitely times to make strategic withdrawals

personally, i think this was one of them

on the other hand, if andy had been the one raising all in, and had lost to the guy calling with aces, i would have agreed totally that he went out in a blaze of glory with a very unlucky break against him, and i would not have faulted the play in the slightest

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if and when I get to the WSOP, I'm going to do my damndest to *not* play any differently than I would in a weekly NLHE at Mohegan or a $20 + 2 at 'Stars. The sports history books are filled stories of teams and individuals that made it to the "big one" and lost specifically because they stopped doing the things that got them there.

In most ways that matter, the big one is no different than any weekly tournament. The chips are just chips, your buy-in is just a sunk cost. Sure, the competition is as tough as it gets, but to win, you have to play to win, not play to avoid losing.

[Martin Aigner]

I´ve read some answers, but not all, so forgive me if it´s already been written.

1) I think laying down KK in his situation is a very good play, call it even worldclass, call it logical.

2) Talking about laying down the Kings makes his worldclass play to an extremly poor one. OK, maybe not a poor one, since it´s still too likely that he was up against AA, but from now on he´ll be run over, that´s for sure.

3) If he talks about laying down KK in this situation he should have taken advantage of it, not whining, which he obviously was not cappable of. What I mean with taking advantage of this play would be e.g.: Making a overbetting reraise with AK against a big aggressive stack and call him down with A high when he moves all in. A risky play, that´s for sure, but I think still a better chance to double up than calling with KK.

Just my thoughts

Martin Aigner

[VeryTnA]

I'd rather go out in a blaze of glory on the bubble than get blinded and anted away while all the big boys attack me unmercifully.
&lt;p&gt;
If I am going to play this hand and "go out in a blaze of ________ ( probably not glory) ". It would be because I raised all-in. NOT because I CALLED an all-in re-raise. I think that is were the difference of opinion lay.

[Zwiggelte]

If i was in this situation, i will probably slow played the hand and just call the 2800$ raise before the flop.
But this is not the case. So he raised all in. I would certainly fold my KK, there will beter better chances next hands.
What the heck i even folded one time AA before the flop at a final table..(there where 3 people all-in). /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif You have to survive, in my opinion..

[Martin Aigner]

What´s the use of just calling here? What if the flop comes something like J 4 2 and the other player bets? You muck?

BTW, although I obviously wasn´t there, I still doubt that your fold with AA was correct.

Best regards

Martin Aigner

[William]

Very interesting thread.

I have to admit that at that stage of the WSOP I can hardly imagine anyone trying to bluff a tight player such as Andy( and risking his whole stack).
In the other hand, after reading how poorly he played his two Aces, and how he revealed folding Kings (obviously a severe ego problem, very unprofessional), who knows?

I have though to agree with the ones that mean that getting into the money is the first priority. There's plenty of time left, and at that stage 100K or 200K is not such big a difference.

[GrannyMae]

where was this posted?

it was in the daily write up for a newsletter i subscibed to. andy and max shapiro did a daily for the entire series. they were about 3,000 word recaps that were truncated for the email list.

click here for the complete archives of the newsletter (http://www.casino.com/newsletter/poker/archive/)


grab a pack of Camels and a bottle of tequilla. this is GREAT reading.

the full, longer reports will be printed in cardplayer over the next year. one event per issue i beleive. all the articles will be online at www.cardplayer.com (http://www.cardplayer.com)
(come to think of it, why the hell am i paying $109 a year for this mag?? oh yeah, now i remember. toilet reading is tough with a laptop)

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/j0/book.gif

[GrannyMae]

the last time i quoted his words here didn't he threaten to sue me, 2+2, and mr sunshine's cat?

you are absolutely correct michael. i also beleive he insisted that the posts be deleted and wiped from the archives.

HOWEVER, i *am* GrannyMae, and http://e4u.consoleradar.com/fingers/fing12.gif

[jasonHoldEm]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
it was in the daily write up for a newsletter i subscibed to....this is GREAT reading

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto...A friend of Granny's turned me on to this newsletter and it absolutely rocks. When I have some time I'm planning to work my way through the archives, but right now I'm just happy to be getting the WSOP updates in my inbox. Andy Glazer is quickly becoming one of my favorite poker writers /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Peace,
jHE

[Mike Haven]

having read about some of the bets and some of the calls, at gutshot (http://www.gutshotwsop.co.uk/livecov.jsp), i've changed my mind

andy, old mate, you done shoulda called that bet, that's for sure /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif

[mrbaseball]

Heh /forums/images/icons/smile.gif This was my point. People do bluff at the WSOP. People take shots and people get way over aggressive and try to run over everyone. If you let them run over you when you have KK you don't have a prayer. They aren't gonna let you limp into the money.

I was really surprised at the amount of posters here advocating the lay down? Seems like everyone read it immediately as AA coming over the top. I read it as 99.9% pure move to steal the raise and blinds. I WANT all my chips in preflop with KK any time I can. If I were Glazer making that 9K raise the only reason I wouldn't have gone all in instead was because I wanted action. I want a call here. I want someone to come over the top. I want all my chips in the middle.

[lorinda]

There's a big difference between stealing a raise when you are on the big blind and the button has raised and stealing a reraise when you have already raised from UTG.

Lori

[schroedinger]

There are times at the table when my head and gut get together and just SCREAM lay it down, but from here in my office and reading it, I still sorta think the over the top was a bluff, even if CL "admits" to a disinterested party having KK.

I wasn't there, but this could easily be a play that a skilled and confident player sets up by throwing in a meaningless raise with rags UTG.

What are the odds this guy would make this kind of (raw) bluff? 1%?? Still more than 2:1 bluff rather than AA. .5%?? even money bluff or AA. Add to that the odds this guy would make some kind of AQ, AJ, QJs, JTs, T9s, or AK semi-bluff (or misread of Andy's strength)? at 25% we are at even money these hands or AA.

If you feel that the money position/action demands a fold of KK here, I suggest folding without looking until you are in the money. (That is, if "$100K vs. $200K doesn't really make all that much difference at this point" etc.)

If Andy has been playing fast to build $10K up to $94K, then why does the over the top [ABSOLUTELY] have to be the mortal nuts?

I guess for those of you who are really afraid of being put out of the tournament at this point, I should note that the flop can always hit your opponent 3 times, in which case you are pretty much dead with whatever you play.

On the other hand, if it is your job to write about poker, maybe you should lay it down so you will have a story to (s)tell.

[lorinda]

If you feel that the money position/action demands a fold of KK here, I suggest folding without looking until you are in the money

That is pure garbage.

Why should someone fold without looking just because they should fold a 50-50 shot for an overraise of twenty times their current reraise.

If you don't tell everyone you just folded kings, which i think was the biggest mistake Andy made here, then there is no reason that next time you have kings that someone will suddenly overraise 100k from UTG.

If I were to use your logic, then if Im going to call a 100k raise, I should raise the 100k as the additional information is clearly wasted on you.

If you think that people who raise UTG have a 0.5% chance of having aces, maybe you should read about how good players play under the gun.

This would be the odds of him having aces if he raised blind.


Lori

[schroedinger]

We can agree to disagree about the laydown.

But if UTG makes this play EVERY TIME he gets AA, and is only .5% capable of making it with "any 2" -- then it's even money, AA or any 2 (after the raise, obviously without the raise, AA is once in 220). Now maybe your experience/evaluator tells you that it is less than .5%, maybe far, far less than .5%, that he would make this play at this point with "any 2." I can't really argue with you there. But you are saying -- you are not willing to risk the stack on the proposition that even 1 time in 200, will the opponent be bluffing (or misreading) here.

In any event, I rate Andy's probability of doubling up if he calls at at least 50%, and to me, around 70%. I think you rate it lower (which is simply a matter of differing judgments, on among other things, the probability of a stone bluff in these circumstances). I think we also put different values on doubling up, and also probably different values on "going home." Which means a different conclusion was inevitable.

I am sorry if you read my post as overly harsh, or personal, or lighting you up.

Should Andy be willing to take any risk that the opponent holds AA, for his whole stack at this point in the tournament for a chance to double?

Sounds like you are really saying NEVER -- Such that if someone went all in ahead of Andy, he should fold?? Maybe you are not saying that, so then it would get back to a sense that this is ALMOST CERTAINLY (&lt; .05%) not a bluff.

[lorinda]

I dont think doubling his stack neccessarily implies doubling his dollar value in the tourney.

I think that $100k with 50 or so players to the bubble is worth more than double $200k to a player who is outclassed.

Certainly I think the play is probably slightly above 50-50 in his favor, and I am not 100% it is a laydown, although i feel it is, it was the comments that he shouldn't look that got me wound up.

By making this play, he has gained more information about his opponents hand and (rightly or wrongly) made a decision based upon it.

Thanks for remaining polite, it was me that overreacted, not your post.

Personally in this position, If Im going to fold the kings and then worry about it, my best play is to raise a lot more and get myself potstuck.

If I make the little raise, it is with the plan to either call because I feel I have trapped my opponent, or fold because I don't like the overraise.
It does appear Andy had no plan here, so his mistake might be playing without a plan.

I think he should have considered the implications of his baby raise a lot more carefully.

Lori

[lorinda]

Of course...that should read 100k is worth more than half of 200k in dollar value....

Lori