BB/100 and SD.

[AllIn3High]

I've read the post on how to calculate your winrate/hr with a certain confidence, but:

Given BB/100, SD/100 and number of hands,
how do you calculate:
* the probability that you're a winning player with a certain confidence.
* the risk of a N BB downswing.

Thanks in advance

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've read the post on how to calculate your winrate/hr with a certain confidence, but:

Given BB/100, SD/100 and number of hands,
how do you calculate:
* the probability that you're a winning player with a certain confidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

=1-NORMDIST(0,win_rate,SD/sqrt(hands/100),true)

where win_rate is in bb/100, and SD is in bb for 100 hands. NORMDIST is the Excel function for the cumulative normal distribution from minus infinity to 0, with mean = win_rate, and sigma = SD/sqrt(hands/100).


[ QUOTE ]
* the risk of a N BB downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]

See this post (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=1922208&page=&vc=1).

[AllIn3High]

Thanks a lot, as always your post(s) has been helpful.